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Thread: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

  1. #46
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    The reason I don't see the Reds keeping Bray is because they'd have to offer him arbitration. I'm just not sure he's worth the hundreds of thousands of dollars needed to keep him around.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    What is it that is being denied? Valaika isn't worth retaining is that what you are saying? I think if you haven't put eyes on this kid you cannot appreciate what he does at the plate, the kid is a natural born batsman. If they leave him unprotected and he doesn't get selected I'd be utterly shocked. Guys with his type of natural born skills don't get left unprotected unless there are some serious other concerns and that doesn't apply here.
    He's got a slightly over .500 OPS at AAA in more than 250 AB's. I don't deny he's got some potential. He's just unlikely to get drafted. Teams that are hurting enough to spend a 25 man spot on a project like that are a lot more likely to take a pitcher. I'd like to keep him, of course, but not at the expense of anybody I considered a potential major league arm.

  4. #48
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    What are the differences between the major league, and AAA phases of the Rule V draft? I admit to being a little confused on the difference.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by GIDP View Post
    there is no way we dont offer Burton arbitration if hes eligible. Even with the good years he had we still isnt going to be getting that much money. Plus its not like we have relievers piling up to replace him now that we traded Manuel, Josh and Zach.
    Arbitration salaries are usually based on the last three years of service. They factor things like injuries, but it mostly goes by comparisons based on the last three years of service. Remember, it is common for players going through arbitration to get more than they would as free agents. That is why so many teams non-tender or don't offer arbitration these days.

    Here are Burton's numbers for his three years of service:

    9-3 3.65 ERA 7.8 K/9 1.88 K/BB 1.39 WHIP

    Those numbers should get him around $3.5-$4M for next season. If they factor in last year, and his being sent down, at wost he gets $2.5-$3M. No way the Reds risk that on Burton for next year.

    He can easily be replaced for around $1M. Now, they might tell him that, and that if they don't tender him a contract, that is all he will get as a free agent, and maybe he signs for around that, avoiding arbitration. But they are not going to offer him arbitration.
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    I think the next two months determine whether Burton gets offered arbitration or not. I think Cincinnati is leaning, at this point, to not.
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    What are the differences between the major league, and AAA phases of the Rule V draft? I admit to being a little confused on the difference.
    after ML teams protect their top 40 players from selection in the major league phase, they then protect their next best 25 or so on their AAA team's roster, and after that their next 25 or so on their AA team's roster. so the players chosen in AAA phase are number 66 or lower in terms of franchise value (and actually much worse because so many more valuable young players do not have to be protected). I've almost never seen a player of merit chosen in the AAA phase. it's not worth paying attention to.
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    I think the next two months determine whether Burton gets offered arbitration or not. I think Cincinnati is leaning, at this point, to not.
    Agreed. I think I've come to appreciate, somewhat begrudgingly, the deliberation with which the team is moving in making certain roster decisions (not all). The Burton case is one, especially now that they've moved Roenicke and Stewart. Best to see if he can recapture the form that made him so solid in late 2007 and in stretches last year -- before moving on to experiments with other guys.
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Burton did nothing for his case tonight; I'm predicting it will be Burton out, Wells in, when the decision's got to be made.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Burton did nothing for his case tonight; I'm predicting it will be Burton out, Wells in, when the decision's got to be made.
    Wells shouldn't keep a roster spot over anyone.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by CTA513 View Post
    Wells shouldn't keep a roster spot over anyone.
    Agreed, but Burton shouldn't either. He has been nothing short of HORRIBLE pretty much all of 2009. I would much rather him not be offered arbitration and go w/ a young option in AAA. His production, or lack thereof deserves nothing else, imo.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    I think Wells may have a chance to help this team as a reliever in 2010. He had a 1.5 GO/AO in his appearances at Wash., and was not really hit that hard. He's won 65 major league games. It's just possible he could learn to pitch relief here and be useful.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by SirFelixCat View Post
    Agreed, but Burton shouldn't either. He has been nothing short of HORRIBLE pretty much all of 2009. I would much rather him not be offered arbitration and go w/ a young option in AAA. His production, or lack thereof deserves nothing else, imo.
    We have traded all of our young options in AAA pretty much.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Burton did nothing for his case tonight; I'm predicting it will be Burton out, Wells in, when the decision's got to be made.
    If Kip Wells is kept for any reason after this season then the entire Reds brain trust need to have lobotomies. Kip Wells has been awful for years and will continue to be awful until his time in baseball is through. He should be the absolute last guy to keep of anyone on the 40 man roster besides MAYBE Castillo.
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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I think Wells may have a chance to help this team as a reliever in 2010. He had a 1.5 GO/AO in his appearances at Wash., and was not really hit that hard. He's won 65 major league games. It's just possible he could learn to pitch relief here and be useful.
    He gets ground balls but he walks a lot of hitters just like he did tonight.
    Hes pitched 29 innings this season and has walked 21 hitters.
    In 1257 major league innings hes walked just under 600 hitters.
    If he couldn't cut down his walks with the Cardinals then I doubt he ever will.

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    Re: Reds 40 Man Roster as of 8/1/09. What players need protection in Rule V draft?

    An update: I replaced Dave Weathers' spot with Enerio Del Rosario (you just can't ignore that production), and I inserted Phil Valiquette in place of Sean Watson since Valiquette is younger and left-handed.

    Gone:
    Ramon Hernandez (buyout)
    Danny Richar (has already been DFAed once)
    Alex Gonzalez (buyout)
    Laynce Nix (not offered arbitration due to the young outfielders in AAA)
    Jonny Gomes (see: Laynce Nix)
    Sean Henry (not enough power to be worth a roster spot)
    Dallas Buck (can't stay healthy)
    Bill Bray (can't stay healthy and out of options; will be nontendered)
    Mike Lincoln (will be DFAed eventually)
    Ben Jukich (one-trick pony that won't translate to ML success)
    Alex Smit (probably a future LOOGY at best)
    Sean Watson (plenty of potential, but the wildness is a big question mark)
    Justin Lehr (a AAAA player who would need to be offered arbitration to stick around)
    Kip Wells (history says he should have no place on the team)

    That would leave a 40-man roster of (new additions in bold):
    (19)
    C Ryan Hanigan
    C Wilkin Castillo
    C Craig Tatum
    1B Joey Votto
    1B Yonder Alonso
    2B Brandon Phillips
    2B Drew Sutton
    3B Scott Rolen
    3B Adam Rosales
    3B Juan Francisco
    SS Paul Janish
    SS Chris Valaika
    LF Wladimir Balentien
    LF Danny Dorn
    CF Chris Dickerson
    CF Willy Taveras
    CF Chris Heisey
    CF Drew Stubbs
    RF Jay Bruce

    (12)
    SP Edinson Volquez
    SP Aaron Harang
    SP Johnny Cueto
    SP Bronson Arroyo
    SP Homer Bailey
    SP Micah Owings
    SP Ramon Ramirez
    SP Sam LeCure
    SP Matt Maloney
    SP Daryl Thompson
    SP Jordan Smith
    SP Travis Wood

    (9)
    RP Francisco Cordero
    RP Arthur Rhodes
    RP Nick Masset
    RP Jared Burton
    RP Carlos Fisher
    RP Daniel Ray Herrera
    RP Phil Valiquette
    RP Enerio Del Rosario
    RP Pedro Viola


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