CE, my problem is Walt over paid for a guy that was traded for Troy Glaus, what, a year ago? He gave up two of the Reds top 10 (likely) prospects and starting 3B for a guy with declining skills and health issues. He didn't touch the areas of serious need CF, SS, and ignored his growing SP problems. He also traded some SP depth, for a guy that offensively is not an upgrade to EE, though defensively he's obviously superior.
I agree that not every prospect makes it, but there was no need to take on 11 mil in salary next year for a 35 year old 3B, especially when you have so many other holes to fill.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
The eyes never lie.
Not only did he trade Stewart he did it while knowing Volquez was going to have surgery today. It's just confusing all around.
At least we don't overvalue Reds prospects around here.
And by the way ... Keith Law's list doesn't matter. What matters is how the various organizations (and the Reds) rank these guys. And we don't know that.
doug does tend to overvalue reds prospects, but he's not wrong on this.
Jan. 14 2008, Rolen was traded to Toronto for Troy Glaus.
Glaus has never been considered a good fielder, though he's probably better than EE. So why is Rolen now worth three players to a team that isn't going to contend this year, or next if the holes at SS and CF and SP aren't filled? Especially when one of those holes, SP, could potentially have been filled by Stewart ala Cueto in 2008?
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
The eyes never lie.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Have Stewart/ Roenicke got any pt yet?
Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand
But I do want to put a myth to bed about a thing or 2. #1 My dissatisfaction with the deal has little to do with how Doug views them and although I only speak for myself on it I think many others would tell you the same. Now does Dougs reports on a player sway my opinion about a guy, sure it does he sees them and I agree with his philosophy about how to value a prospect (i.e. stats/scouting reports). He also speaks to scouts and others who have valuable facts and opinions. I take all facts I can get from Doug and others about players and to a small extent I may take some folks opinions as well. I combine those things with what what I know about a player already. And that is how I have arrived to Stewarts worth (as well as other prospects). So let's not blame Doug for the disappointment others have shown for this deal.
Secondly let's try to look at this deal objectively, let's just forget the names a second. Trading away a kid who throws 2 plus pitches (one of which is a mid 90's sinking Fastball) , showing the feel for another average or better pitch, the aptitude/feel for pitching, with command and control who has shown the ability to maintain his velocity late into games consistently for a guy who although makes us better in the short term has a history of breaking down is 34 and not hitting for power anymore straight up is a bad deal. You simply don't trade arms like that for anything short of something impactful and fairly long term. Forget the rest of the deal that right there is the problem in a nutshell. Evrything else is just gravy. This is eerily reminiscent of the Dan Haren deal only that time Walt at least in theory got a potential impact LHP in his early prime.
I think most of us will eventually move on and understand there is nothing that will change that deal. However this is just another critical mistake in what is becoming a long line of them. That IMO started with relieving Mackanin and then Krivsky of their jobs and why, public relations just like this Rolen deal. Got to keep those buts in the seats even if it means dropping talent left and right.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
This was stated before, but let me re-emphasis...
THIS IS KEITH LAW TALKING!!!
Why are we listening to him?
He raked the Reds over the coals on the Hamilton/Volquez deal because the thought that Volquez would never be more than a middle reliever.
He said that the Reds pick of Cozart was the worst 2nd round pick that year because he will never be anything other than a light hitting utility guy.
I could go on forever with some of the misreadings that Law has made since joining ESPN. Just like Steve Phillips, there's a reason why he is working in journalism and not for a major league team. His rankings mean squat to me.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:
1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.
2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.
3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.
4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
The eyes never lie.
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