Keith Law looks at traded prospects

[Newman4]

Here is the issue with this trade. The consensus on this board seems to be that Harang, Arroyo and Cordero have contracts that must be purged for this team to re-tool and fill its holes on the staff and on the field. This deal is a step in the opposite direction:

1. Stewart was the only pitcher in the high minors with a remote possibility of filling a spot in the top three of the rotation. Like it or not, Harang and Arroyo are ticketed for those spots and will need to be replaced when they go. The other guys in the high minors - Maloney, Lecure even Wood - are all back of the rotation guys if they pan out. I get the idea that pitching prospects frequently fail. But IMO that doesn't mean they should be discarded, it simply means that you need more of them to increase the chance of successfully finding one of them. I do think Stewart probably needed another full year building innings in AAA before he would have been ready for a rotation spot in the big leagues. Its true that the team could sign some one new if these contracts are off the books, but does anyone think this organization would be able to find anyone better for any less money on the free agent market? I think any replacement brought in will not be from the top shelf guys available, they would be secondary guys who didn't get the big moeny from the big dollar contenders. Of course they'll want that big money to come and pitch in a place like Cincinnati that hasn't been in the play-offs in a long time. That would leave us with contracts not unlike the ones Harang and Arroyo have now given to pitchers who perform similarly to how Harang and Arroyo perform now. The difference being they'll be new contracts that will be on the books for longer. Purging Harang and Arroyo without having replacements from within available seems like a dead end to me.

2. Cordero is very pricey for a role with such questionable value, but "closer" seems unimportant until you don't have anyone to close and the team is coughing it up every day. I'm on record saying the team needs a channging of the guard in the pen in order to free up some cash for other needs. Unfortunately, Stewart was the guy in the high minors who could likely have filled that role successfully. If not him, then Roenicke was the next choice. Now the team needs more stability from Masset (shakey of late) or a big comeback out of Jared Burton (or of all people Bill Bray) if it wants to move on. It may be easier to get some one cheap on the market here than in the rotation, but there is no question that dealing Stewart and Roenicke will make the transition from Cordero and Weathers much more difficult.

3. Rolen is probably a decent upgrade from EdE (though I think EdE's offense is under-rated by many on here). But at $11 Million in 2010 with a shakey health outlook, its a big risk for a team with so many other needs and such a limited budget. The Reds are the team taking on the risk here. They overpaid in arms because the Jays were willing to walk away from the deal, while the Reds were fulfilling a man-love driven quest and gave in. The Reds should have called J.P.'s bluff and walked away themselves. This season is toast anyway. I'd bet the Reds could have acquired Rolen at the Winter Meetings for a lot less. That is, of course, only my specultaion and we'll never know, but I'll never be convinced that this team didn't overpay. EdE and Maloney should have been plenty to get it done. Waiting until the winter meetings would have meant that the team did not need the cash coming back to pay Rolen's salary for the rest of 2009 and would have automatically reduced the talent required to do the deal.

4. Selling off those arms for the Jays taking on some money was unwise. Keep the arms and deal Weathers and Willy if possible to recoup the cash. Deal what's left of Gonzo or Ramon. Sell lesser prospects for cash, but don't sell off the prospects who could make a difference. This team is flush with role player, bench player depth. Stewart was one of a very few who could possibly be a difference maker. Probably the only arm in the organization with that potential (Mike Leake is still unknown).

Very nice post mth123. You sum up my thoughts much more competently than I ever could. I have to agree with GIDP on the prospects argument. All prospects are dynamic commodities, however they do have value with respect to each other. I have posted on another article which ranks both Stewart and Roenicke in the top 10 of all prospects traded. It also says it was a bad deal for Cincinnati. Small market teams need to have a soild direction and there is little room for error in personnel due to financial constraints. Obviously, front office management is betting their financial resources on Rolen, Harang, Arroyo and Cordero to the tune of at least $40 million dollars next year.

[Hoosier Red]

He will only get better because he's 26.

Rare is the player who gets worse from 26 to 27 and 28.

Shouldn't he show some signs of improvement from ages 24-25-26. His defense was never going to be good enough and if you moved his bat it went from good enough to meh.

Now granted, the Reds could use some Meh as opposed to Blah, but there's not a lot of evidence to suggest he could only get better. There's plenty of evidence to suggest he'd maintain his current production perhaps, but him getting better wasn't exactly set in stone.