Everyone is wondering what is wrong with Aaron Harang.
His peripherals looks the same as when he was leading the league in K's and Wins. He's throwing as hard as ever.
What's the problem? Why is he giving up more runs and losing more games?
My theory is based on a new stat that Bill Peterson invented, and that I think should be what is used to evaluate all pitchers.
The stat is TPI, or Terds Per Inning.
Basically most major league pitchers have the similar stuff. I mean really, look at Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. They both throw hard, they both have good movement on their offspeed pitches, and most of the time, they have similar results.
In over 90% of both their pitches, they look unhittable, they fool or blow away the hitter. But every now and then, they throw up a terd. A pitch that even Willy Taveras can crush.
Cueto so far this year has thrown far fewer terds per inning than Bailey, and thus, his ERA is much lower.
I think this stat makes sense. Heck, even Mike Lincoln looked unhittable most of the time, but too often this year, he floated up a terd and it got crushed.
I think this is Harang's problem lately. In his first few years as a Red, he had a great PTI, maybe 1.0 or lower. If you only throw about one an inning not much damage can be done.
But lately, it seems to have risen to somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. And to make matters worse, most of them are in one or two innings, so he gets an inning with 4 or 5 terds. That means that he likely is throwing up terds with men on base, which is killer, and the main reason why he is giving up so many runs.
Anyway that's my theory, and I hope to expound on this new stat and the many issues behind it in the future.