Post Rolen trade reactions

[edabbs44]

Yeah, and he had the option of doing this last off season. At best he can move them at the ASB next year.

He actually didn't, because Cordero had 3 years left on his contract rather than 2 and Arroyo had 2 instead of 1.

But, the question is why would someone take on Arroyo's contract when they can theoretically find a league average equivalent for cheaper?

[PuffyPig]

Sounds like Edwin was essentially a throw-in to the deal if they really plan on releasing him.

It was from the Reds perspective a moving of salary.

[UKFlounder]

I don't think Cordero's production is so easy to replace. Maybe I'm wrong, but Cordero has been the best closer the Reds have had for quite a while. Trading him saves money, but does it make the team better? Is Masset really a good candidate for closer? It takes skills besides a cheap contract to close games, but maybe I'm making it seem harder than it is.

Rock - Walt - Hard Place

[membengal]

7 million of it. That's a chunk for a team that really has no shot of contending as currently constructed.

And for those that might say let's see if WJ makes some deals this offseason I say to you "how'd that work last offseason?"

Bad.

[HokieRed]

I doubt you can move any of Harang, Arroyo, or Cordero without eating so much of the contracts that it becomes self-defeating--e.g. if we're left with about half their money we can't buy replacements. Leads us back to the possibility of trading Phillips. An artful deal would get us a very cheap young 2b prospect, leaving us almost enough to buy an SS in the market. Or vice versa. I don't particularly like it but I don't see a lot of alternatives. It will not be made easier by the way Phillips' contract really balloons up after next year, IIRC. He's rapidly becoming as unmovable as the pitchers.

[puca]

That leaves around $8M if they keep payroll the same. That can get one solid upgrade at SS, LF or a SP.

If the Reds can trade Harang, Arroyo or Cordero this season, that would free up around $15M, if you consider the savings this year and next. That would mean that the Reds would have around $23M next year to upgrade the team, and that could easily fill in all three holes.

There is no market for Harang, Arroyo or Cordero with their current contracts. That means the Reds will either have to swallow a big chunk of their salary or get nothing in return (or possibly both). Any of those guys they trade they then must replace and it's not like they have the talent in the system to replace any of these guys. In fact the best chances of replacing Cordero or one of the starters went to Toronto in the Rolen deal.

The Reds prospects for 2010 are bleak. This should have been obvious prior to the Rolen trade. That is the main reason the trade is being panned.

[puca]

We will just go Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, Owings and Bailey.

That is not a good rotation. You know that right?

[BRM]

That is not a good rotation. You know that right?

I'm pretty sure doug isn't advocating for that rotation. Just speculating that's what we will see next year.

[Benihana]

This reminds me of The Trade in so many ways, except that it's worse in so many ways.

It is similar to The Trade in the following ways:

1. We traded a player who was long considered "the future" in Cincinnati after he never really broke out and exhibited somewhat of an attitude problem. We traded him while he was still young and under team control, albeit at an escalating salary.
2. The reaction of Redszoners and critics alike were that it wasn't necessarily a bad deal because of who we traded, but because of the return and perceived market value of the players we dealt at the time.

Yet it was worse than The Trade for the following reasons:

1. We took on salary at a time when the payroll was already at full capacity
2. The player we acquired is on the downside of his career, as opposed to Bray and Thompson who supposedly had bright futures
3. This trade did not fit in with any sort of team direction. The Volquez news only magnified that. The Trade made sense because we had a debilitating bullpen at the time and Kearns and Lopez were both considered replaceable. I'm not sure that Zach Stewart is replaceable anytime soon. Travis Wood has a #4 ceiling and Mike Leake has yet to throw a professional pitch. Meanwhile, Josh Roenicke could provide Weathers and Rhodes-like production at 10% of the price, and 10 years less in age.

It was a bad trade, there are no two ways about it. I just hope that it doesn't turn out to be horrible- I hope that the fallout is only as bad as The Trade, in that none of the three players we dealt away become terribly substantial. If Stewart ends up in the Jays rotation, or if either Stewart or Roenicke end up as the Jays closer in the next couple years, it was a horrible, horrible deal.

Scott Rolen would have to win an MVP in the next 2-3 years to justify that kind of return, especially when you look at what Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, and Victor Martinez fetched on the same day.

[edabbs44]

That is not a good rotation. You know that right?

BIG ifs coming:

If Bailey takes a leap to consistent useable major league pitcher

and

If the offense is materially upgraded

I could see that rotation being good enough to get into contention and make things interesting around next year's deadline, when Walt offers up the farm for Halladay.

[TheNext44]

But wouldn't such a trade create a 4th hole, or would we go in-house for another starter or a closer? Do we have desirable candidates for those roles?

Closer is an easy hole to fix. Heck, I think even Herrera might be a good closer. It's an overrated position.

I think the Reds could get back from whoever they trade Arroyo or Harang to a back of the rotation starter for depth. Then use what ever money is saved to get a solid #1 or 2 starter as a free agent.

A team would want Arroyo or Harang instead of signing a TOR starter via free agency since they are only on the hook for one year.

[REDREAD]

He is an asset next year because the Cardinals and Jays are paying a large part of his contract. If he is here past 2010 it will be entirely on the Reds bill.

Ok, but past 2010, he probably won't be making as much.

A lot depends on Rolen. He wanted to come here. I don't know what he'll be willing to play for in 2011.. He could declare FA and resign for less. Is that likely? I don't know. I'm pretty sure he would not get over 10 million on the open market right now.

[Benihana]

BIG ifs coming:

If Bailey takes a leap to consistent useable major league pitcher

and

If the offense is materially upgraded

I could see that rotation being good enough to get into contention and make things interesting around next year's deadline, when Walt offers up the farm for Halladay.

At this rate, I don't know that we'll have a farm to offer up at that point.

[Benihana]

Ok, but past 2010, he probably won't be making as much.

A lot depends on Rolen. He wanted to come here. I don't know what he'll be willing to play for in 2011.. He could declare FA and resign for less. Is that likely? I don't know. I'm pretty sure he would not get over 10 million on the open market right now.

Exactly. Remember what JimBo was able to do to the M's once Jr. demanded a trade (and wanted to come to Cincy?) It was VERY different than this fiasco.

[REDREAD]

I was critical. I wanted EdE traded when he was still a young, cheap player with 26 HR's. The extension plus the changing market moved him into the albatross column.


What I want to know is what did Walt know and when did he know it about Volquez. The seriousness of the injury makes the trade less appealling.

Ok, you were one of the few to call the EdE extension. I'm just saying it is not villified nearly as much as Willy's contract was, for whatever reason.

As far as Volquez's injury goes, I guess if Walt and Bob want to improve the W-L record, they should go ahead and add ML talent when they get the opportunity too, regardless of everyone's projected health. That seems to be the plan, improve the W-L for next year.