John Smoltz has an ERA of 8.33. He would be an upgrade to the Reds rotation.
John Smoltz has an ERA of 8.33. He would be an upgrade to the Reds rotation.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Fun thing about Homer is he hasn't had his "highschool draftee" shoulder problem yet.
Should be anytime now unfortunatly.
The improvement angle kind of falls flat, this year Bailey is actually posting an xFIP higher than he did in 07 or 08 (hard to do really since he was awful both of those years too). He did show some signs in AAA, but they have not at all translated to the majors.
He definitely gets the rest of 2009 in the rotation. If his peripherals stay where they are now, there's no way you give him in a spot in the 2010 rotation. Not if you're trying to win at least, and why did they go get Rolen if they aren't going for it in 2010? Either bullpen or trade would be reasonable options for Bailey in that scenario. But you don't just keep running a guy that bad out there hoping he'll turn it around. If things get better for him over the next month and a half then it's a different conversation, but that doesn't look likely at this point.
I think the reason why many people think he has improved, is that he gives a lot of very solid innings.
Of the 43 innings he's pitched, 27 of them were shutout innings, and 5 more he gave up just one run.
Those are not good numbers, but watching him pitch, he has twice as many great innings as he does bad ones, so it appears that he his more effective than he really has been.
But it also shows that he can be very good, if not great, if he can become more consistent. That's not easy to do, but it does suggest that no one should give up on him just yet.
To me this shows that he would be great as a closer, but it looks like I'm alone on this one.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
I realize that Bailey is the subject of the topic along with ERA and the term “improvement”.
But as long as the term improvement is being tossed around as a standard to measure whether Bailey should be given a opportunity to start isn’t there a double standard present when or if we think of a Cueto or Owens in the same breath with “improvement” ? How do they escape the scrutiny? Should any of the three of Cueto, Owens or Bailey be given a spot in the starting rotation based upon the arguments against Bailey here?
I realize we can’t answer the next question but, I have to wonder what we would see from these guys or even Harang or Arroyo for that matter if St. Louis and Duncan had them to work with vs Reds organization and coaches.
What I am seeing is a kid that is slowly learning that there is much more to pitching than trying to throw the baseball by people. Major league hitters are good and they will punish your mistakes and make you pay, whether they are balls left out in the strikezone or free passes that you shouldn't be giving up. I think that it's very hard for kids to learn how to pitch when they have basically been throwing the ball by people for the first 10-12 years of their baseball experience. Old habits and having success with those habits is hard to shake.
In baseball, only a very few will not "hit the wall." Most of these guys have always been the very best. They have been able to get by on God given ability. It came easy. When you "hit the wall," you have to do a little soul searching. What always has worked, may not still work, and you may "have to work." That can be a foreign concept to the very talented. I see it, even in the level that I coach. We put together the best from a large area, and it can be frustrating for kids who have always been successful when they begin to play against players that are as good, or better, than they are.
If you are going to evaluate a young pitcher's progress on stats alone, without seeing and taking the good things he is doing into consideration, you are probably going to see a bleak picture. Sometimes, the little things add up and start to click for a pitcher. Developing talent (particularly pitching) is not for the impatient. What Homer Bailey still has, that a lot of other prospects don't, is a fastball in the high 90's. He has an electric arm. He will get the extra looks. The professionals in an organization, the guys who really can coach and evaluate talent will be a little more patient because of the little things they see that are getting better. Ultimately, a lot of this will be up to Homer Bailey. If they see that he is not willing to do the work, that is when he will find another place to play.
I see some progress in his approach to pitching, his mechanics, his thought process on the mound and the way he is handling himself. I still think he has some electric stuff worth the extra patience. He is still very young in a pitching sense.
Last edited by RollyInRaleigh; 08-07-2009 at 07:24 PM.
Trade Cordero, make Homer the closer.
To quote the Beach Boys...
"Wouldn't it be nice...?"
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I hear she's now available.
I could see Volquez eventually becoming the closer after his Tommy John surgery.
Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.
If the Reds trade Homer they'll get less than they would've received in a trade a year ago. Possibly a lot less. I can understand the votes for the bullpen as I've thought that should be a possibility back in March. But now we'll be without Volquez and either Harang or Arroyo could be dealt this month. Who do people think will fill those spots?
Noone in the system has the ceiling that Bailey does and there's only a few that we can even consider as options in April 2010. As far as outside options, we may get lucky with a decent starting pitcher pickup but try not to get too carried away with who you expect the Reds to pick up.
Bailey as even a league average starting pitcher is worth more than Bailey as a league average reliever. That's an important factor to keep in mind. The Reds screwed things up by constantly bringing him up. The Reds would be making things worse by letting him become a quality starter for someone else or shortchanging him as a one inning pitcher. Bailey will be debated again and again from now til next March and probably after that as well. But if he's in the rotation in 2010 it would be in the back of the rotation where the expectations aren't quite so high.
So my question is when does he have to show the improvement that people require? The consistency that can help him reach his potential. Now? This month? September? Or in spring training?
Right now I'd count him as a part of the 2010 rotation.
Last edited by redsfandan; 08-08-2009 at 01:07 AM. Reason: goof: replaced august with september. kinda makes more sense that way.
Homer should pitch every fifth game this year and next year. He is still 23. Just let him pitch, refine his command, and learn the major league game. The guy has a golden arm, it's just a matter of learning to pitch.
We saw Homer finally get it together at AAA. Now he needs to do it in the NL. It takes time for some guys.
Homer was brought up to the big leagues prematurely the first time. Bruce was brought up very early as well. They will get there, but there will be growing pains, everyone needs to be patient with them.
Despite somewhat similar results, I saw improvement from Bailey in tonight's game.
He still get rattled, as evidence by the first inning homer to Molina after he thought he had Sandavol K'd on a 3-2 pitch, but he settled down after that until the 7th, when he was clearly gassed. He seems to be subtly showing more and more maturity every time he takes the mound.
I could be wrong, but I think there's a good chance that Bailey will become a decent starting pitcher by opening day next year.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
Phil Hughes is the exact reason why I think Homer could be great out of the pen.
Hughes hasn't exactly set the world on fire as a starter.
However, he's looking like a great set up option for the Yankes to get to Mo.
I feel like hitters should name Homer's pitches, a la Major League II.
I think that your thoughts and approach suggested here seems reasonable.
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