Not enough for me to hand him a spot in the rotation next year, no.Originally Posted by bucksfan2
In fact correct me if I'm wrong, but his 3 worst outings of the year have come in his last 4 starts (all coming in the last month). And he only has 8 starts on the year. If you look at his game log, he appears to be getting worse!
Last edited by Benihana; 08-07-2009 at 03:09 PM.
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My post was so on point that it had a warning label...
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OK.
I think what's not getting discussed is the pitcher himself. There comes a point at which it can't be good to continually embarrass a young man by sending him out to get pummeled over 2 or 3 inning stints of 4, 5, 6 earned runs. (I'm not saying that's what's going to happen only that it could). To a great extent the decision will be made based what the narrative is (which is what M2 hinted at): if he's making modest strides or not sliding, he'll probably stay in the rotation; if he continues to get pounded unremittingly, it's not only good strategy it's a good ethical decision to send him to the pen or trade him.
“And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject.” Jamie Galbraith
And who in the Reds fold, right now, are you going to pencil in to that spot? The great pitcher that they acquire in the off-season? (like that is probable) I think you really have to be patient with someone that you have put so much stock in, particularly if there is no one out there that is willing to give you any kind of return on him that really helps your immediate needs. Developing pitching is not always in the fast lane.
It depends on how serious the Reds are when they say they are planning to "contend in 2010."
Obviously the preference is that the Reds can go out and acquire some real major league arms.
But to your point, I'd offer that Ramon Ramirez, Matt Maloney, and Justin Lehr may well be able to put up ERAs better than what Homer has shown so far. If you really intend on contending, you cannot compete with a 7+ ERA out of one of your rotation members. Even a 5.50-6.00 ERA would be preferable (which I'd bet one of those guys could probably put up.)
However if they are not serious about contending and intend to punt the year in order to "build for the future", continue to pitch Homer in 2010 with the hope that he eventually "figures it out." In that scenario, I ask you (and/or Walt) what the hell was the point of trading Stewart, Roenicke and Co. for Rolen?
Last edited by Benihana; 08-07-2009 at 03:27 PM.
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"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
I remember Maddux and Glavine getting kicked around pretty good their rookie seasons. I thought Orel Hershisher did too till I saw his numbers. Anyway here's Glavine's numbers from 1988
Now Maddux in 1987Code:W-L 7-17 ERA 4.56 League Average 3.45 ERA+ 80 BB/9 2.99 K/9 3.9 Hits 201
Code:W-L 6-14 ERA 5.61 League Average 4.09 ERA+ 76 BB/9 4.3 K/9 5.8
Are either of those close to as bad as Bailey has been?
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Of course, your point of departure is the assumption that Bailey will not improve. Many of us disagree, but that's the premise you set forward. I don't expect them to just give Bailey a spot, but those of us who believe he's improving (and he has had outings where he has shown he's a different pitcher - not consistently, but still matured). Of course, given your premise again, and no hope of improvement in the future (I assume your point), I can see why you would feel it's a sign of surrender. It's just that not all of us agree with your contention in the first place. But that's the zeitgeist around here presently.
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I am not suggesting that Bailey won't improve. I would, however, like to see some of that improvement translate into results over the next two months before assuming that he will magically improve drastically next year.
If he can string together 5 or 6 quality starts between now and the end of the year, I'm fine with giving him another shot next year. But if he can't outpitch another starter in all of baseball for the rest of this year, I can't hand him a spot in the rotation for next year on blind faith alone.
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As some have stated, a lot depends on what the Reds do between now and opening day 2010.
Do they trade either Arroyo or Harang? Do they add any starting pitchers either through trade or free agency? Do Leake and/or Wood look ready for the rotation next spring training?
I would like the Reds to send Bailey to a fall or winter league to work on being a closer. It can't hurt. If they do move him to the bullpen, it has to be as a closer or setup man. He has too good an arm to waste in middle or long relief.
He can set up Cordero in 2010, and maybe take over in 2011 and have the Reds trade Cordero. I think he would be great as a power arm in the back end of the pen and would hold his value that way.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
It's easy to think by looking at his season numbers that he is a turd, but if you've watched him since his most recent callup, he has looked like the guy we've been expecting for the last few years. Sure he got roughed up by the best and 3rd best offenses in the NL, but other than that, he's been pretty rock solid.
They can try to go out and get some starting pitching, which I think they should, but it doesn't exactly grow on trees. I am not convinced that either Roenicke or Stewart is going to be the next great pitcher in the major leagues. Still a lot to prove, and they will more than likely struggle some, or a lot, just like Bailey. As for the "Co." part of the trade, to be honest, I am glad to see him at third base in a different uniform. I don't have a problem with the Rolen trade. You have to have guys that can play. Rolen can play.
If you are going to contend. If you're not- and you're building for the future, you're better off with guys like Stewart and Roenicke.
Obviously, the Reds need to make up their mind which one they are going to do. If Homer Bailey doesn't show improvement for the rest of this season yet still finds himself in the 2010 rotation, you know which way the Reds decided, and it's incongruent with the Rolen trade- no matter what your opinion of the deal was.
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