Wed August 12 - Minor League Updates

[TRF]

I am not sure I completely buy into that. If we are talking about a 19/20 year old I am willing to give you a little more leeway on 'adjusting your plate discipline', but Heisey is nearly 25 years old. How much of an adjustment period should he get? He has 176 PA now. His walk rate in June/July at AAA was 5.5%. Its now sitting at 2.2% in August. I think he is certainly better than the 2.2% he is showing in August, but I am not sure he is all that much better than the 6.5% he showed in July.

You'd buy into it if he were a 1st round pick. You'd point to anything that backs your pov which is Reds 1st rd picks will succeed. You've done it with Stubbs and Mes. Alonso too.

Sometime high picks struggle, sometimes low picks thrive. It just happens, but when we cherry pick stats (LD% comes screaming to mind) to say player X is succeeding when he clearly isn't, its disingenuous. And quite frankly with your knowledge of the farm system, you should be bringing more to the table about WHY Stubbs and Mes struggle, and why Alonso was getting owned by LH pitching priory to breaking his hand.

[GIDP]

Heisey career BB% is around 8.7%

[dougdirt]

You'd buy into it if he were a 1st round pick. You'd point to anything that backs your pov which is Reds 1st rd picks will succeed. You've done it with Stubbs and Mes. Alonso too.

Sometime high picks struggle, sometimes low picks thrive. It just happens, but when we cherry pick stats (LD% comes screaming to mind) to say player X is succeeding when he clearly isn't, its disingenuous. And quite frankly with your knowledge of the farm system, you should be bringing more to the table about WHY Stubbs and Mes struggle, and why Alonso was getting owned by LH pitching priory to breaking his hand.

Not really. Heisey has never played like he did in AA. His career walk rate including this year in 8.5%. The only real improvement Heisey seemingly made this year was his power, which is real. His strikeout rate is in line with his career. His walk rate this year overall is back in line with his career rate.

As for Stubbs struggling... I don't really think he is. He isn't hitting for power. I don't really count that as struggling. He is drawing walks at a high rate. He is striking out at an acceptable rate. He is stealing bases at a very high rate and stealing them in bunches. He is playing great defense. I do think he would be better served to swing earlier in the count from time to time. He is patient to a fault at times.

Mesoraco is struggling because of a lower than expected BABIP. He is hitting for power. He is drawing walks. He is striking out at an acceptable rate. He is throwing runners out at a good rate and at an incredible rate over the last 3 months.

Alonso isn't struggling against lefties. He just isn't getting the hits. He has 51 at bats against left handed pitchers in his entire minor league career. 6 walks. 10 strikeouts. The sample is incredibly small, spread out over 4 months and is basically 12 at bats per month. When he starts striking out 4 times as much as he walks against lefties, I will worry. Until then, I believe he is going to be just fine. (BTW, Justin Smoak isn't doing all that much against lefties either. Of course he is suffering the same issue of too few at bats to care and solid plate discipline against them).

[Edd Roush]

Not really. Heisey has never played like he did in AA. His career walk rate including this year in 8.5%. The only real improvement Heisey seemingly made this year was his power, which is real. His strikeout rate is in line with his career. His walk rate this year overall is back in line with his career rate.

As for Stubbs struggling... I don't really think he is. He isn't hitting for power. I don't really count that as struggling. He is drawing walks at a high rate. He is striking out at an acceptable rate. He is stealing bases at a very high rate and stealing them in bunches. He is playing great defense. I do think he would be better served to swing earlier in the count from time to time. He is patient to a fault at times.

Mesoraco is struggling because of a lower than expected BABIP. He is hitting for power. He is drawing walks. He is striking out at an acceptable rate. He is throwing runners out at a good rate and at an incredible rate over the last 3 months.

Alonso isn't struggling against lefties. He just isn't getting the hits. He has 51 at bats against left handed pitchers in his entire minor league career. 6 walks. 10 strikeouts. The sample is incredibly small, spread out over 4 months and is basically 12 at bats per month. When he starts striking out 4 times as much as he walks against lefties, I will worry. Until then, I believe he is going to be just fine. (BTW, Justin Smoak isn't doing all that much against lefties either. Of course he is suffering the same issue of too few at bats to care and solid plate discipline against them).

Doug, I agree with your views on Mes and Alonso.

I have one question for you. Is there any difference offensively between Stubbs and Taveras other than power projection?

If Stubbs was given Taveras' next 200 ABs, would he produce better than Taveras?

[dougdirt]

Doug, I agree with your views on Mes and Alonso.

I have one question for you. Is there any difference offensively between Stubbs and Taveras other than power projection?

If Stubbs was given Taveras' next 200 ABs, would he produce better than Taveras?

Stubbs has more power now than Taveras does (not that it says much, Taveras has the power of me or you). He also has a better eye. And yeah, I think Stubbs would easily out produce Taveras if by nothing else getting on base.

[GIDP]

People need to look at Stubbs actual doubles and home runs and compare it to a lot of other players before saying he doesnt have power. He certainly doesnt have a ton of home run power (yet) but he still has more home run power than a lot of other top CF prospects.

[Edd Roush]

Stubbs has more power now than Taveras does (not that it says much, Taveras has the power of me or you). He also has a better eye. And yeah, I think Stubbs would easily out produce Taveras if by nothing else getting on base.

Okay, thanks. I just see that sub .400 SLG # this year in over 400 PA and it is hard for me to see that as an asset. I guess it is not that Stubbs has an extra asset over Taveras, but rather his slugging ability simply is not as much of a liability.

As for his eye, Taveras had an OBP greater than .400 his last full season in the minors. I am just afraid that his OBP is going to dissappear like Taveras in the majors. I know you can't compare one player's career path directly to another's, but this certainly makes me leery.

[dougdirt]

Okay, thanks. I just see that sub .400 SLG # this year in over 400 PA and it is hard for me to see that as an asset. I guess it is not that Stubbs has an extra asset over Taveras, but rather his slugging ability simply is not as much of a liability.

As for his eye, Taveras had an OBP greater than .400 his last full season in the minors. I am just afraid that his OBP is going to dissappear like Taveras in the majors. I know you can't compare one player's career path directly to another's, but this certainly makes me leery.

Taveras OBP dried up because he not only hit .335 that year, he also had a .405 BABIP that season. Of course there is also the fact that Taveras, unlike Stubbs, isn't going to put a ball in the seats if you groove him one. Pitchers aren't ever worried about throwing Taveras a strike. Pitchers aren't going to groove one to Stubbs that often because he has the ability to hit it 450 feet. He doesn't do it often, and that certainly does cause a bit of hesitation and wonder about why he doesn't hit more HR's.... but I wouldn't be concerned about throwing my fastballs to Taveras. I would be concerned throwing them to Stubbs. Basically, Taveras isn't going to do more than double off a mistake pitch. Stubbs can put that one out of the park. Thats the difference between the two going forward from their minor league careers.

[Edd Roush]

Taveras OBP dried up because he not only hit .335 that year, he also had a .405 BABIP that season. Of course there is also the fact that Taveras, unlike Stubbs, isn't going to put a ball in the seats if you groove him one. Pitchers aren't ever worried about throwing Taveras a strike. Pitchers aren't going to groove one to Stubbs that often because he has the ability to hit it 450 feet. He doesn't do it often, and that certainly does cause a bit of hesitation and wonder about why he doesn't hit more HR's.... but I wouldn't be concerned about throwing my fastballs to Taveras. I would be concerned throwing them to Stubbs. Basically, Taveras isn't going to do more than double off a mistake pitch. Stubbs can put that one out of the park. Thats the difference between the two going forward from their minor league careers.

I hope you are right, Doug.