Overdrafting and Overslotting

[Benihana]

Let it play out. I don't think there's a scouting director in the game who specializes in finding superstars.

Just to offer up a couple examples:

Over the 3 drafts of Buckley's tenure (not including 2009 because it's obviously way too early), let's compare the Reds and the Giants top picks in each draft (and this is not just about Stubbs/Lincecum):

Tim Lincecum
Madison Bumgarner
Tim Alderson
Buster Posey
Brandon Crawford

Compare that to:

Drew Stubbs
Devin Mesoraco
Todd Frazier
Kyle Lotzkar
Yonder Alonso


Which would you rather have?

That's not the only example:

The Rays have produced Evan Longoria, David Price, and Tim Beckham over that time.
The Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Ethan Martin, Chris Withrow and Dee Gordon.
The Orioles: Brian Matusz, Matt Weiters, Jake Arrieta and Bill Rowell.
The Tigers: Rick Porcello, Andrew Miller, Casey Crosby, Ryan Perry, and Cody Satterwhite.
The Mariners: Brandon Morrow, Chris Tillman, Phillipe Aumont, and Josh Fields.

The list goes on and on...

[lollipopcurve]

Just to offer up one example:

Over the 3 drafts of Buckley's tenure (not including 2009 because it's obviously way too early), let's compare the Reds and the Giants top picks in each draft (and this is not just about Stubbs/Lincecum):

Tim Lincecum
Madison Bumgarner
Tim Alderson
Buster Posey
Brandon Crawford

Compare that to:

Drew Stubbs
Devin Mesoraco
Todd Frazier
Kyle Lotzkar
Yonder Alonso


Which would you rather have?

Come on. Is that a serious question? What would it prove?

[Benihana]

Come on. Is that a serious question? What would it prove?

Huh?

I'm pointing out that while there may not be any scouting directors that "specialize in finding superstars", there are plenty of 'em out there that have much better results than Buckley in the draft- over a significant period of time.

I really hope Alonso turns into Adrian Gonzalez, because otherwise all Buckley has produced is a bunch of role players, with maybe an occasional starter or two. And that's bad considering he's drafted in the Top 10 in every one of his drafts except the one where he still had a shot at the consensus best player in the draft (Porcello.)

Whether the mandate comes from ownership, the GM, or Buckley himself, they need to start taking those kinds of chances on premium talent, because they're not going to get it otherwise with this regime. That's what I'm (trying to) prove here.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm pointing out that while there may not be any scouting directors that "specialize in finding superstars", there are plenty of 'em out there that have much better results than Buckley in the draft- over a significant period of time.

Does plenty = 1? I'm sure there are some, but when you cite 1 example and then call it plenty, you undermine your credibility.

Like I said, the Reds' system is in solid shape right now -- by pretty objective measures -- so I don't get the extreme consternation..

[GIDP]

All those guys you listed, other than Lincecum, the Reds didnt even have a chance to pick

[Benihana]

Does plenty = 1? I'm sure there are some, but when you cite 1 example and then call it plenty, you undermine your credibility.

Like I said, the Reds' system is in solid shape right now -- by pretty objective measures -- so I don't get the extreme consternation..

Please go back and read the post. I gave six examples- and that was just off the top of my head. How many teams are there that have had the opportunity to draft in the top 10 3 out of 4 years?

The Reds system has exceptional depth, but is severely lacking in exceptional talent. After Yonder and Yorman, there is not a single player that has anyone drooling. One of those is shelved and the other is in rookie ball.

The system is the opposite of what it was just two years ago, when it lacked depth but was extremely top-heavy (with Votto, Cueto, Bailey, and Bruce). I'd take four Grade A talents with no B's rather than 10 C+ guys.

[Benihana]

All those guys you listed, other than Lincecum, the Reds didnt even have a chance to pick

Lincecum, Alderson, and Crawford. That's 3 out of 5.

Regardless, I'm not crying that the Reds didn't pick this guy or that guy. I'm trying to illustrate that Buckley has had plenty of opportunities to bring in premium talent, and he has yet to do so- at least at the same clip as many of these other franchises. There are other teams out there that have added significantly more premium talent through the draft over Buckley's tenure than the Reds have, and I'd like to see them address that. If it means they have to add a couple million dollars to the draft budget in order to take some chances and sign some "tougher signs", so be it.

[GIDP]

Are you seriously going to pull the 4th round 117th pick card? We can play that game all day if you really want. Heisey, and Cozart come to mind quickly.

Regardless only a handful of those names you listed were even available to the Reds. Im sure if the Reds got to pick David Price, and Tim Beckham they would have.

[Benihana]

Are you seriously going to pull the 4th round 117th pick card? We can play that game all day if you really want. Heisey, and Cozart come to mind quickly.

Take Crawford out if you want. I'd take the Giants four top picks all day long. Ditto for the Dodgers, Rays, Tigers, Orioles, and Mariners.

And again, the point is not to cherrypick a guy the Reds could have taken. It is to illustrate the broader picture- that when you pick in the Top 10 3 out of 4 drafts, you have ample opportunity to bring in premium talent- guys that can project or seem likely to be All-Stars at the major league level. Chris Buckley's drafts have failed to produce that type of talent, at least at a pace consistent with the teams I mentioned (and I'm sure there are others.) Maybe it's a money thing? If so, I'd advocate that the Reds need to address that. Give him the greenlight to draft whoever he legitimately thinks is the BPA regardless of signability concerns. If it's not a money thing, the Reds need to be looking for a new scouting director, because after Alonso, there aren't any significant reinforcements coming to the big club anytime soon. And that's very bad for a small market club.

[GIDP]

Do you understand that your point is null and void because you want to list a large majority of guys the Reds didnt even get to pick? If anything you should actually make a list of guys they had a real chance at drafting instead of saying things like Weiters, Matzuz, Longoria, Kershaw.

The Reds didnt even has a shot at drafting them so even listing them is pointless.

[Benihana]

Do you understand that your point is null and void because you want to list a large majority of guys the Reds didnt even get to pick? If anything you should actually make a list of guys they had a real chance at drafting instead of saying things like Weiters, Matzuz, Longoria, Kershaw.

The Reds didnt even has a shot at drafting them so even listing them is pointless.

No, it's not.

There is no point to performing those kinds of activities (listing players the Reds could have drafted but didn't.) If you want me to do that, I could easily, but I don't think that drives home my point. Specific examples of players are irrelevant. The bigger picture idea that they've been given the tools to acquire but haven't done so is what I'm driving at.

However, because you asked:

2006: Drew Stubbs (Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Kyle Drabek, Daniel Bard, Joba Chamberlain)
2007: Devin Mesoraco (Tim Alderson, Rick Porcello, Aaron Poreda, JP Arencibia)
2008: Yonder Alonso (Gordon Beckham, Justin Smoak)

Again, I'll repeat that I think that was pointless- you could do that for any pick of any club at almost any point in time. But when you whiff consistently, it adds up. And by whiff, I don't mean the player is necessarily a bust, but that there were other premium talents out there that could have been had. Some of those guys are 20/20 hindsight, but for every pick, there was at least one other alternate listed that most of this board was clamoring for at the time. In '06 it was Lincecum. In '07 it was Porcello. In '08 it was Beckham and Smoak. So far, Redszone is 3-for-3 in going against Buckley. I hope Crow/Matzek/Green vs. Leake in '09 doesn't make it 4-for-4.

[LoganBuck]

Benihana, you are approaching Aronchis status with me. We know the Reds can do better, but come on. Those aren't whiffs, and you know it. Some of those are signability, and others were based on talent evaluation.

2006 Lincecum's risks have been well documented, and Stubbs has his own potential, so drop that. The rest of that list is filled with guys who came on late, or were signabilty concerns. Stubbs had the best tools of any player in the draft, and he still has them. I didn't want him either at the time, but he is showing substantial progress.

2007 I wasn't a fan of Mesoraco, but am willing to allow him time to develop. It serves no point to bash the kid in every post you make. Everyone knows he is green, and will take time. He may wash out. He isn't close to a finished product, and he is showing improvement.

2008 The Reds scouts like Yonder better. I liked what I saw of him last year in the CWS, so I will give him time as well.

Give it up. Please, you are ruining every thread on this board with the same washed out arguments.

[Benihana]

Benihana, you are approaching Aronchis status with me.

I'll let the mods deal with that one.

We know the Reds can do better, but come on. Those aren't whiffs, and you know it. Some of those are signability, and others were based on talent evaluation.

And that's exactly the problem with how the Reds handle the draft- both the budget and the talent evaluation. That is what this thread is about. If you don't like to hear it, don't open it.

Give it up. Please, you are ruining every thread on this board with the same washed out arguments.

Please see above.

[dougdirt]

As far as the draft goes, my concern about Buckley and co. is that they are great at finding good organizational depth guys which could even be major league role players. But I fear that he is very poor at finding premium talent- guys who can be All-Stars at the major league level. He often opts for the safe pick, or whiffs completely when he doesn't (eg Mesoraco.) Yonder Alonso will be his true test, as he was picked to be a superstar- even when some other top names (Beckham, Smoak, etc.) were still on the board. If Alonso turns into Adrian Gonzalez, that will be great. But otherwise, I can't see a single player that Buckley has drafted in his four drafts that has true All-Star potential. (Well, maybe one- and he was traded two weeks ago.) And that is very, very worrisome.

Yonder Alonso? Todd Frazier? Kyle Lotzkar certainly HAD the potential. JC Sulbaran HAS the potential. Zach Stewart HAS the potential. Zack Cozart HAS the potential. Drew Stubbs HAS the potential. Billy Hamilton was labeled as potentially the best athlete in the draft this year, so he certainly has the potential. Mike Leake certainly has the potential. As for Mesoraco and a whiff.... we have been down this road a thousand times. 1, its too early. 2, the skills are there and can be seen in his peripherals.

Perhaps if he were allowed/encouraged to take some real chances on first-round types that slid into the 4th, 5th, 6th rounds etc. because of signability concerns, that could change. That's my point in this thread.

So you bashed Buckley for not doing it earlier and now you claim that you aren't even sure if he is allowed to do it?

That's fair, especially if this year was Buckley's first running a draft. But my point is we've seen what his drafts have produced so far- a lot of role players and no premium talent. Of course no one knows on draft day how any of these prospects will pan out. If Buckley had a Belicheck-like record in the draft of finding premium talent where no one else was looking, most of us would suspend disbelief. But he doesn't, and that's just a cold hard fact.

He has only been drafting for 4 years. Its pretty tough to produce premium talent at the MLB level from the draft within 4 years, especially when you have not drafted inside the top 5 once over that time. Yeah, some guys taken beyond the players we took are there. A whole lot of guys aren't even close to the level where the guys we took are too. We know you think Stubbs sucks, in 2007 we drafted 15th and took a high schooler. Even if we took Jason Heyward then, he doesn't count as premium talent that is produced, and then there is 2008 where Matusz has 2 starts under his belt and then Gordon Beckham has less than half a season in the majors. So two guys from that draft are even in the majors.

No one said you have to sign these "overdrafted/overslotted" guys immediately after the draft. Most of them are agreeing to deals this week- in the last week of the signing period. There's no reason why you can't sign your top guys first, unless of course, you are the Reds (or the Bengals, for that matter.)

Or the 18 other teams who haven't signed their first round pick yet....

I just refuse to accept being content to remain competitive with all 30 teams (or even in the top-half) as opposed to a desire to be the best, cutting-edge, industry leader in an area where they actually have the resources available to do it. Again, reeks of the Bengals to me.

Where is the assumption that they have the resources available to do it? Would we have the resources available if the Reds spent a little more wisely in free agency? No, because you wouldn't mind spending that money then. You don't like how the Reds spent their money, not so much how they allocated it to be spent.

I went ahead and just deleted the guys that we could have even drafted.

Just to offer up a couple examples:

Tim Lincecum
Tim Alderson

Compare that to:

Drew Stubbs
Devin Mesoraco
Todd Frazier
Kyle Lotzkar
Yonder Alonso


Which would you rather have?

Well I would obviously rather have the Giants guys.... but guess what, most of them weren't available when we drafted, so its not really plausible to make that comparison.

That's not the only example:

The Rays have produced
The Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Ethan Martin, Chris Withrow and Dee Gordon.

Kershaw wasn't available. Martin has 54 walks and 105 strikeouts this year in 88ip. Stuff is good, but its not great and his control is atrocious. I would much rather have Yonder Alonso than Ethan Martin. Withrow is pretty solid. Going to be interesting to see how he is outside of the CAL. Dee Gordon.... I still don't see the difference between Dee Gordon's value and that of a guy like Miguel Rojas. Both above average defensive shortstops. Different qualities at the plate, but I don't think one is more valuable than the other and I would take Cozart over either of them without thinking twice about it.

The Orioles: Brian Matusz, Matt Weiters, Jake Arrieta and Bill Rowell.

Matusz and Wieters weren't available when we drafted. Arrieta was a very good find in the 5th round. Fastball is a little straight though. Billy Rowell.... the guy I wanted in 2006 has a sub .675 OPS over the last two seasons. Dude is still young, but I would much rather have Drew Stubbs. I bet you would too.

The Tigers: Rick Porcello, Andrew Miller, Casey Crosby, Ryan Perry, and Cody Satterwhite.

Porcello would have been great. I can't blame the Reds for passing on him though. I am not sure the risk outweighed the reward (in hindsight it obviously has, but hindsight is 20/20 and he got 7+M and an MLB deal as a HS pitcher). Andrew Miller wasn't there when we picked, but a 5.50 ERA in the majors doesn't leave me all too upset that we didn't take him. Crosby was a good find for the 5th round in 2007. The Tigers didn't do much between Porcello and Crosby in that draft though. Over that same time we took Lotzkar, Frazier, Carroll, Cozart and Soto. Ryan Perry is a reliever. I am never upset I didn't get a reliever, much less in the 1st round. Cody Satterwhite is another reliever. Career Minor League WHIP of 1.54. Their entire list is based off of Porcello.

The Mariners: Brandon Morrow, Chris Tillman, Phillipe Aumont, and Josh Fields.

Reliever we couldn't have picked if we wanted to. Would have loved to have Chris Tillman. Aumont is a reliever. Fields is a reliever with an ERA over 6.00 in AA.

The list goes on and on...

Over the last 3 drafts the Reds also have Stubbs, Valaika (lost season this year for sure), Ravin, Smith, Roenicke, Heisey, Dorn, Mesoraco (who I know you hate as a player), Frazier, Cozart, Soto, Alonso, Stewart, Cline and Sulbaran. That doesn't even count a few guys like Klinker, Oliveras, Lotzkar, Hildenbrandt, Carroll, Horst, Reed or Turner.

But when you whiff consistently, it adds up. And by whiff, I don't mean the player is necessarily a bust, but that there were other premium talents out there that could have been had. Some of those guys are 20/20 hindsight, but for every pick, there was at least one other alternate listed that most of this board was clamoring for at the time. In '06 it was Lincecum. In '07 it was Porcello. In '08 it was Beckham and Smoak. So far, Redszone is 3-for-3 in going against Buckley. I hope Crow/Matzek/Green vs. Leake in '09 doesn't make it 4-for-4.

The Reds have already lost 2008? Wow. Heck, 2007 might not even be a loss because Porcello got paid more than our entire draft. I think I will take our entire 2007 draft over Rick Porcello.

[krm1580]

I think it is very easy to deal in revisionist history and state after the fact who the Reds should have drafted in a particular year, so I do not think your approach is an effective method of supporting your argument.

That being said, to a certain extent I do agree with what you are saying. I think Buckley's drafts have netted a lot of guys that will make the majors at some point but they do seem to lack top end talent and by that I mean top 5 in the league at their position as an every day player or a TOR starter.

Small market teams need to have very productive farm systems from both a quantity as well as quality perspective and you probably do need to be more aggressive if you want to get more quality players.