Overdrafting and Overslotting

[princeton]

a small market team is going to win by throwing money at kids identified by a consensus as good talents, but who are asking for too much money? I highly doubt this. large markets will win that kind of game eight times out of ten. it's a roadmap to ratholes.


the way to win is:

1. have the best scouts and developers-- these guys are cheap!

2. have the scouts feed the great developers with the types of kids that they work best with

3. figure out which of the top talents to avoid (very important, this)

4. find the kids that have not been identified yet

[PuffyPig]

FWIW, the Pirates lost 17-2 tonight.

Yeah, they are on quite the roll.....

[lollipopcurve]

FWIW, the Pirates lost 17-2 tonight.

Yeah, they are on quite the roll.....

With one of the talents acquired in the Nate McLouth trade, Charlie Morton, starting on the mound and giving up 10 runs in an inning of work. Solid.

[Benihana]

FWIW, the Pirates lost 17-2 tonight.

Yeah, they are on quite the roll.....

Because one game in August means sooooooo much to the direction of a 5th place team.

[Benihana]

With one of the talents acquired in the Nate McLouth trade, Charlie Morton, starting on the mound and giving up 10 runs in an inning of work. Solid.

You mean like what Johnny Cueto did?

[Benihana]

a small market team is going to win by throwing money at kids identified by a consensus as good talents, but who are asking for too much money? I highly doubt this. large markets will win that kind of game eight times out of ten. it's a roadmap to ratholes.


the way to win is:

1. have the best scouts and developers-- these guys are cheap!

2. have the scouts feed the great developers with the types of kids that they work best with

3. figure out which of the top talents to avoid (very important, this)

4. find the kids that have not been identified yet

Sure, I'd prefer that to the current situation, but in the meantime there is nothing wrong with addressing the situation in the short-term as best you can. Unfortunately when you have a scouting director that is unable to score premium talent in the higher rounds, this strategy would enable you to score some premium talent in the later rounds.

It's very similar logic to what is currently happening in the international FA market, where all the small-market teams are outspending the big market teams. It may not last, but you should take advantage of that while you can.

Would I prefer better scouts? Of course.
Do I have any faith in the Reds ability to find them and bring them on board? None whatsoever.

So do what you can in the meantime.

Meanwhile the O's just signed their 11th rounder for $1MM, the second straight second day guy they've given $1MM. Good for them.

[lollipopcurve]

You mean like what Johnny Cueto did?

Right. Maybe you'd like to learn more about Mr. Morton?

Morton: 25, 26 in November
Cueto: 23, 24 in Feb

Morton: lifetime 5.89 ERA in 26 starts
Cueto: lifetime 4.72 ERA in 55 starts

Yeah, that Cueto has nothing on Charlie Morton.

The McLouth trade...just another puzzle piece putting together that Pirates master plan.

[Benihana]

So you bashed Buckley for not doing it earlier and now you claim that you aren't even sure if he is allowed to do it?

I don't know who is making those decisions and neither do you. My point is that Buckley can't seem to find the premium guys (or he can't afford them). And I'd like to see that changed, whether it's through better budgeting or a better scouting director/department (or BOTH!)

He has only been drafting for 4 years. Its pretty tough to produce premium talent at the MLB level from the draft within 4 years, especially when you have not drafted inside the top 5 once over that time. Yeah, some guys taken beyond the players we took are there. A whole lot of guys aren't even close to the level where the guys we took are too. We know you think Stubbs sucks, in 2007 we drafted 15th and took a high schooler. Even if we took Jason Heyward then, he doesn't count as premium talent that is produced, and then there is 2008 where Matusz has 2 starts under his belt and then Gordon Beckham has less than half a season in the majors. So two guys from that draft are even in the majors.

No, it's not. Most major league teams have produced at least one premium player or prospect in four years of drafting. By premium, I mean a great young player on a major league roster poised to make an All-Star team (or several) or a Top 10 prospect in the minor leagues. Buckley has produced neither. Every other team that has drafted in the Top 10 in 3 out of 4 years has. Maybe if the Reds began taking more chances on top talent (in the later rounds), they would improve their record in this regard.

Where is the assumption that they have the resources available to do it? Would we have the resources available if the Reds spent a little more wisely in free agency? No, because you wouldn't mind spending that money then. You don't like how the Reds spent their money, not so much how they allocated it to be spent.

No. I don't like either one. How the Reds allocate their money to be spent is something that should be incorporated into the PLAN. The scatter-brain tactics of the last decade have shown the contrary.

I went ahead and just deleted the guys that we could have even drafted.


Well I would obviously rather have the Giants guys.... but guess what, most of them weren't available when we drafted, so its not really plausible to make that comparison.

I thought you just said you deleted the guys that we could'nt have drafted. Even in doing so, I'd still rather have the Giants guys- and my guess is so would you.

Over the last 3 drafts the Reds also have Stubbs, Valaika (lost season this year for sure), Ravin, Smith, Roenicke, Heisey, Dorn, Mesoraco (who I know you hate as a player), Frazier, Cozart, Soto, Alonso, Stewart, Cline and Sulbaran. That doesn't even count a few guys like Klinker, Oliveras, Lotzkar, Hildenbrandt, Carroll, Horst, Reed or Turner.

And here you best illustrate my point. Who gives a $#%$?! These guys are ROLE PLAYERS. It is nice to have a couple produced from each draft. But not a single player you name (other than possibly Alonso and maybe Frazier/Stewart) qualifies as a premium talent. Not one of them will make a Top 50 list. Justin Turner? Justin Reed? These are guys that are probably 90% to never play in a major league game!! And you are naming them as evidence of good drafting?!?!?!?

The Reds have already lost 2008? Wow. Heck, 2007 might not even be a loss because Porcello got paid more than our entire draft. I think I will take our entire 2007 draft over Rick Porcello.

No, they didn't already lose 2008. But if you had to take stock as of right now, almost every franchise would rather have both Beckham and Smoak than Alonso. Both of those guys were mentioned as centerpieces to a Halladay deal. Yonder Alonso would NOT be a centerpiece for that. I think Alonso could turn out to be a good player, and I hope for Buckley's sake that he does- because otherwise he will be 0-4 in producing premium players.

[Benihana]

Right. Maybe you'd like to learn more about Mr. Morton?

Morton: 25, 26 in November
Cueto: 23, 24 in Feb

Morton: lifetime 5.89 ERA in 26 starts
Cueto: lifetime 4.72 ERA in 55 starts

Yeah, that Cueto has nothing on Charlie Morton.

The McLouth trade...just another puzzle piece putting together that Pirates master plan.

I'm not saying Charlie Morton is Johnny Cueto, trust me. I am pointing out that one bad outing does not a pitcher make.

Charlie Morton 5.89 career ERA in 26 starts.
Homer Bailey 7.01 career ERA in 27 starts.

Anyway, that's enough about the Pirates. Contrary to popular belief, I am not like some other posters who just croon about any and all things Reds. I am frequently optimistic about a lot of things the Reds do (including prospects) - check my posting history. But unlike others still, I'm more of a realist. And I don't like the direction I see my favorite ballclub heading in- that's all. I think I'm entitled to lament about that.

[lollipopcurve]

Charlie Morton 5.89 career ERA in 26 starts.
Homer Bailey 7.01 career ERA in 27 starts.

Morton, 2+ years older. Morton, cost the Pirates Nate McLouth, who they had signed to a multiyear deal. Bailey, homegrown.

[Benihana]

Morton, 2+ years older. Morton, cost the Pirates Nate McLouth, who they had signed to a multiyear deal. Bailey, homegrown.

Bailey, homegrown (with a Top 10 pick and a seven-figure signing bonus). He didn't exactly come cheap.

[lollipopcurve]

Bailey, homegrown (with a Top 10 pick and a seven-figure signing bonus). He didn't exactly come cheap.

What did Bailey get, a couple million? In the big picture, not much. And he may yet become a solid addition to the rotation, under team control for several more years.

Morton cost them an all star outfielder, a young guy signed and under team control for a few more years.

No comparison.

[Benihana]

What did Bailey get, a couple million? In the big picture, not much. And he may yet become a solid addition to the rotation, under team control for several more years.

Morton cost them an all star outfielder, a young guy signed and under team control for a few more years.

No comparison.

More than a couple million, Bailey cost a Top 10 pick. Speaking to the point of this thread, those should be quite valuable.

[dougdirt]

No, it's not. Most major league teams have produced at least one premium player or prospect in four years of drafting. By premium, I mean a great young player on a major league roster poised to make an All-Star team (or several) or a Top 10 prospect in the minor leagues. Buckley has produced neither. Every other team that has drafted in the Top 10 in 3 out of 4 years has. Maybe if the Reds began taking more chances on top talent (in the later rounds), they would improve their record in this regard.

Yonder Alonso was Baseball America's #15 prospect at midseason. Thats pretty darn close to your Top 10 prospect claim don't you think?

I thought you just said you deleted the guys that we could'nt have drafted. Even in doing so, I'd still rather have the Giants guys- and my guess is so would you.

Tough one. Would I rather have two guys I see as above average players (Alonso/Frazier), 1 guy that should be an average player (Stubbs), a wild card who is showing potential (Mesoraco) and then Lotzkar or a Cy Young winner and Alderson? I really don't know the answer to it. Of course we could have just swapped out Stubbs for Lincecum (which at the time I would have been on board with as well) and still had everyone else.

And here you best illustrate my point. Who gives a $#%$?! These guys are ROLE PLAYERS. It is nice to have a couple produced from each draft. But not a single player you name (other than possibly Alonso and maybe Frazier/Stewart) qualifies as a premium talent. Not one of them will make a Top 50 list. Justin Turner? Justin Reed? These are guys that are probably 90% to never play in a major league game!! And you are naming them as evidence of good drafting?!?!?!?

I named 23 players. Your 90% mark suggests that no one else will play in the majors outside of Roenicke who has been there already. You really don't think ANYONE else will play a major league game? I also know we have a pretty different value on several guys listed, so I am not going to get into them. But Justin Turner is a guy you are bashing on and don't give a shot to play a game in the majors.... dude is hitting .309 in AAA as a second baseman. Odds are pretty good he finds his way into a major league game someday, most likely a few hundred. And since you went ahead and qualified Alonso/Frazier/Stewart as premium talent, I will lump Lotzkar in there as well who HAD it before his arm blew up. Thats 4 guys with 'premium' talent over that span of time. I don't see where the complaint comes from.

No, they didn't already lose 2008. But if you had to take stock as of right now, almost every franchise would rather have both Beckham and Smoak than Alonso. Both of those guys were mentioned as centerpieces to a Halladay deal. Yonder Alonso would NOT be a centerpiece for that. I think Alonso could turn out to be a good player, and I hope for Buckley's sake that he does- because otherwise he will be 0-4 in producing premium players.

Lets pretend for a minute that Beckham would have more value than Alonso, is the difference even big enough to make a fuss over? Gordon Beckham at best was a Top 10 prospect. Alonso is in that same exact area. What is the big deal? Heck, the same thing goes for Justin Smoak. If you don't think Yonder Alonso has the same value that those guys did at the trade deadline, I think you are misinformed.

[lollipopcurve]

More than a couple million, Bailey cost a Top 10 pick. Speaking to the point of this thread, those should be quite valuable.

And Bailey may yet deliver something of value to the Reds. It's too early to say he won't.