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Thread: Overdrafting and Overslotting

  1. #61
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yonder Alonso was Baseball America's #15 prospect at midseason. Thats pretty darn close to your Top 10 prospect claim don't you think?
    Alonso is the one guy Buckley has drafted that is close to premium talent. I've said that all along. But he is still inferior to the two players that everyone else in the world was saying/expecting the Reds should draft.


    Tough one. Would I rather have two guys I see as above average players (Alonso/Frazier), 1 guy that should be an average player (Stubbs), a wild card who is showing potential (Mesoraco) and then Lotzkar or a Cy Young winner and Alderson? I really don't know the answer to it. Of course we could have just swapped out Stubbs for Lincecum (which at the time I would have been on board with as well) and still had everyone else.
    You can have your "wild cards who are showing potential" all day. I'll take the Cy Young. And the guy who can be "undersold" for a batting champ at midseason.


    I named 23 players. Your 90% mark suggests that no one else will play in the majors outside of Roenicke who has been there already. You really don't think ANYONE else will play a major league game? I also know we have a pretty different value on several guys listed, so I am not going to get into them. But Justin Turner is a guy you are bashing on and don't give a shot to play a game in the majors.... dude is hitting .309 in AAA as a second baseman. Odds are pretty good he finds his way into a major league game someday, most likely a few hundred. And since you went ahead and qualified Alonso/Frazier/Stewart as premium talent, I will lump Lotzkar in there as well who HAD it before his arm blew up. Thats 4 guys with 'premium' talent over that span of time. I don't see where the complaint comes from.
    You misunderstood. I said that guys like Justin Reed are 90% to never play in the bigs, not that 90% of the guys you mentioned won't. However, 90% of the guys you mentioned are role players, and we've already discussed that.

    Lets pretend for a minute that Beckham would have more value than Alonso, is the difference even big enough to make a fuss over? Gordon Beckham at best was a Top 10 prospect. Alonso is in that same exact area. What is the big deal? Heck, the same thing goes for Justin Smoak. If you don't think Yonder Alonso has the same value that those guys did at the trade deadline, I think you are misinformed.
    Disagree, and all published reports seem to agree with me. There is not a team in the league that wouldn't much prefer Beckham or Smoak to Alonso at this point in time.
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  3. #62
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Alonso is the one guy Buckley has drafted that is close to premium talent. I've said that all along. But he is still inferior to the two players that everyone else in the world was saying/expecting the Reds should draft.
    Inferior? Based on what? Based on what BA or BP says that is all of 5-10 spots out of 5000 minor leaguers? I think you are making a mighty big leap to suggest he is an inferior player, especially at this point.

    You can have your "wild cards who are showing potential" all day. I'll take the Cy Young. And the guy who can be "undersold" for a batting champ at midseason.
    My 1 wild card with my two above average regulars and my average guy is a bit different than what you are suggesting I said.

    You misunderstood. I said that guys like Justin Reed are 90% to never play in the bigs, not that 90% of the guys you mentioned won't. However, 90% of the guys you mentioned are role players, and we've already discussed that.
    I would disagree that 90% of them are role players, or at least currently fit the model of a role player. I will say that I believe more than 1 guy in that group will be a major league starter one day, making it less than 90%.


    Disagree, and all published reports seem to agree with me. There is not a team in the league that wouldn't much prefer Beckham or Smoak to Alonso at this point in time.
    Published reports where? Which team made that statement? What report said Alonso wasn't enough to be the center piece of a deal for Halladay? Why weren't Smoak or Beckham moved for Halladay if they were indeed worth that? Lots of speculation on your part is what I am getting.

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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Alonso is the one guy Buckley has drafted that is close to premium talent. I've said that all along. But he is still inferior to the two players that everyone else in the world was saying/expecting the Reds should draft.




    You can have your "wild cards who are showing potential" all day. I'll take the Cy Young. And the guy who can be "undersold" for a batting champ at midseason.




    You misunderstood. I said that guys like Justin Reed are 90% to never play in the bigs, not that 90% of the guys you mentioned won't. However, 90% of the guys you mentioned are role players, and we've already discussed that.



    Disagree, and all published reports seem to agree with me. There is not a team in the league that wouldn't much prefer Beckham or Smoak to Alonso at this point in time.
    I don't remember if it was Baseball America or somewhere else, but just a few weeks ago I read an article that said Smoak was really struggling right now. I would guess there probably ARE some teams that would prefer Alonso to Smoak.

    I'm not as gung-ho about Beckham as others. He's a talented player, but there's still a lot of question as to whether he would be able to be a shortstop (which is why everyone was so high on him). If he doesn't, then his bat is diminished somewhat. He's going to hit wherever you put him. The guy can swing the bat. But being able to play up the middle is what got his value so high and why people wanted to draft him.

    Back to Smoak:

    He's hitting .245 / .352 / .371 / .723 right now in 175 PA's in AAA. He did have real good splits in AA, but he's not doing well since being advanced. I'm not sure I'd say it's clear-cut there aren't people that would take Alonso over he.
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    To further my point, according to BA, teams spent an average of $5.4MM on the first ten rounds this year. The Reds, who had a first round sandwich pick and drafted in the Top 10 of every round, paid out significantly less than that.

    While signing bonuses aren't the only measure of talent, they do usually have a pretty good correlation. In addition to all the previous examples I've given (Orioles, Pirates, Royals, etc.) the A's paid their fourth rounder more than the Reds paid any other pick other than Leake (and they also signed their first rounder- who I wanted and they drafted five picks after Leake- substantially more than Leake got) it shows you that other small market teams understand that you have to spend big in the draft. Oh yeah, and did I mention the A's also bagged the BEST international prospect last year? Doesn't look like they're resting on that glory.
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-18-2009 at 01:17 PM.
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    To further my point, according to BA, teams spent an average of $5.4MM on the first ten rounds this year. The Reds, who had a first round sandwich pick and drafted in the Top 10 of every round, paid out significantly less than that.

    While signing bonuses aren't the only measure of talent, they do usually have a pretty good correlation. In addition to all the previous examples I've given (Orioles, Pirates, Royals, etc.) the A's paid their fourth rounder more than the Reds paid any other pick other than Leake (and they also signed their first rounder- who I wanted and they drafted five picks after Leake- substantially more than Leake got) it shows you that other small market teams understand that you have to spend big in the draft. Oh yeah, and did I mention the A's also bagged the BEST international prospect last year? Doesn't look like they're resting on that glory.
    The Reds drafted and signed 11 picks in the first 10 rounds. They signed all of their picks taken up to round 15. Most people would consider it a good thing if a team is able to sign their top 16 picks at a cheaper rate than the rest of the league. Instead you take it as the Reds being cheap.

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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Most people would consider it a good thing if a team is able to sign their top 16 picks at a cheaper rate than the rest of the league.
    only if a few of the players turn out to be major contributors at the MLB level
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I don't remember if it was Baseball America or somewhere else, but just a few weeks ago I read an article that said Smoak was really struggling right now. I would guess there probably ARE some teams that would prefer Alonso to Smoak.

    I'm not as gung-ho about Beckham as others. He's a talented player, but there's still a lot of question as to whether he would be able to be a shortstop (which is why everyone was so high on him). If he doesn't, then his bat is diminished somewhat. He's going to hit wherever you put him. The guy can swing the bat. But being able to play up the middle is what got his value so high and why people wanted to draft him.

    Back to Smoak:

    He's hitting .245 / .352 / .371 / .723 right now in 175 PA's in AAA. He did have real good splits in AA, but he's not doing well since being advanced. I'm not sure I'd say it's clear-cut there aren't people that would take Alonso over he.
    Smoak and Alonso were considered very similar prospects coming into the draft, although most experts would give Smoak the slight edge. Beckham was rated higher by many scouting services, and plays better defense even if he doesn't stick at SS.

    2009 Beckham in the MAJORS: .299/.373/.470/.843
    2009 Smoak in AA: .328/.449/.481/.930
    2009 Alonso in AA: .246/.309/.389/.686 (pre-injury)

    Sure, things can change, but why in the WORLD would you take Alonso over the other two at this point?

    (And that doesn't even include the fact that Alonso has since broken his wrist.)
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-18-2009 at 01:42 PM.
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    The Reds drafted and signed 11 picks in the first 10 rounds. They signed all of their picks taken up to round 15. Most people would consider it a good thing if a team is able to sign their top 16 picks at a cheaper rate than the rest of the league. Instead you take it as the Reds being cheap.
    I do when you look at their bigger body of work.

    This is the same regime that drafted Mesoraco over Porcello. And this is the same draft that they drafted Leake over Matzek/Crow/Green, Boxberger over Oliver, and Fleury over Stassi. Those are the types of moves that get me discouraged (and I actually like Leake.)

    If they had a history of finding diamonds in the rough and getting to sign them for cheaper than anyone else, great. If they were the Patriots of baseball, who often opt for the lesser known player and turn out to be right, I'd have more faith. At this point, they are getting outspent even by the A's- who many would consider to be the Patriots of baseball in that respect. If I had faith that the Reds scouts knew what no one else seemed to know, than I'd be happy. Instead they have a history of taking the cheaper route for currency's sake (not because their scouts have been so smart), and that strategy has failed to produce premium players. And although they signed their top 15 picks, not one of them really projects to be a premium player: Most have noted that Leake projects to be a #3 starter at best (which is good, but not overwhelming for a Top 10 pick. His bonus seems to indicate that, especially when you compare it to others drafted around him.) Everyone else seems to project to a role player at best (which is in line with their underwhelming bonuses), with the possible exception of slingin' Billy Hamilton. Role players are certainly important, but they don't do you much good without premium talent. Color me underwhelmed.

    That's what this thread is all about.
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-18-2009 at 01:49 PM.
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    To further my point, according to BA, teams spent an average of $5.4MM on the first ten rounds this year. The Reds, who had a first round sandwich pick and drafted in the Top 10 of every round, paid out significantly less than that.

    While signing bonuses aren't the only measure of talent, they do usually have a pretty good correlation. In addition to all the previous examples I've given (Orioles, Pirates, Royals, etc.) the A's paid their fourth rounder more than the Reds paid any other pick other than Leake (and they also signed their first rounder- who I wanted and they drafted five picks after Leake- substantially more than Leake got) it shows you that other small market teams understand that you have to spend big in the draft. Oh yeah, and did I mention the A's also bagged the BEST international prospect last year? Doesn't look like they're resting on that glory.
    The Reds spent 5.182 million on their top 10 round picks.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763

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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    The Reds spent 5.182 million on their top 10 round picks.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763
    Exactly. And that's way below average, after considering they drafted in the top 10, signed all of their picks, and had a sandwich pick.

    Teams like the Reds shouldn't even be shooting for average in draft spending, they should be aiming for well above average. The A's, Pirates, Padres, and Orioles (after factoring in their guys who got seven figures after the 10th round) all get that- and that's why they did so. Assuming the Royals sign Crow, you can add them to that mix as well.

    We're not talking about something they don't have the resources to do- we are talking about $2-4 MM extra spending on amateur talent acquisition.
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-18-2009 at 01:56 PM.
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Exactly. And that's way below average, considering they drafted in the top 10, signed all of their picks, and had a sandwich pick.
    How many picks did other teams have? How many guys in the top 10 rounds did the Reds go over slot on? You do know the entire thing is weighed down by the fact that Serrano got a measly $25,000 to sign right?

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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    How many picks did other teams have? How many guys in the top 10 rounds did the Reds go over slot on? You do know the entire thing is weighed down by the fact that Serrano got a measly $25,000 to sign right?
    The link shows how many picks the other teams had. And no, Serrano doesn't weigh the whole thing down, even if he would have been paid slot the Reds would still be behind: the Reds signed one player to a seven-figure deal. One. And even he had tied for the second lowest signing bonus out of any player drafted in the Top 15 (and he was taken 8th overall.)

    Unless you have superb, out-of-this-world scouting and player development (which the Reds obviously don't), that type of spending behavior will not net you premium talent. That's all I'm saying.
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-18-2009 at 02:18 PM.
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    The link shows how many picks the other teams had. And no, Serrano doesn't weigh the whole thing down: the Reds signed one player to a seven-figure deal. One. And even he had tied for the second lowest signing bonus out of any player drafted in the Top 15 (and he was taken 8th overall.)

    Unless you have superb, out-of-this-world scouting and player development (which the Reds obviously don't), that type of spending behavior will not net you premium talent. That's all I'm saying.
    The Reds spent more money than 17 teams in the draft. And you are acting like they spent like the Mets.

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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Here is the amount spent per pick that was signed inside the Top 10 rounds by team.
    Code:
    Team	Picks	Signed	Total	Per Player
    Nationals 	11	10	$10,869,500 	$1,086,950.00 
    Tigers 	        10	9	$8,857,100 	$984,122.22 
    Mariners 	12	12	$10,636,600 	$886,383.33 
    Padres 	        10	10	$8,735,500 	$873,550.00 
    Athletics 	9	8	$6,035,900 	$754,487.50 
    Pirates 	11	11	$8,081,900 	$734,718.18 
    Rockies 	12	12	$7,663,300 	$638,608.33 
    Red Sox 	10	9	$5,711,400 	$634,600.00 
    Yankees 	9	8	$4,760,000 	$595,000.00 
    Giants 	        10      10	$5,813,500 	$581,350.00 
    Orioles 	10	9	$5,147,200 	$571,911.11 
    Diamondbacks 	15	15	$8,548,700 	$569,913.33 
    Royals 	         9	8	$4,100,000 	$512,500.00 
    Angels 	        14	13	$6,386,900 	$491,300.00 
    Reds 	        11	11	$5,182,900 	$471,172.73 
    Rays 	        10	7	$3,285,000 	$469,285.71 
    Braves 	        9	8	$3,714,500 	$464,312.50 
    Brewers 	13	13	$6,005,900 	$461,992.31 
    Cardinals 	10	10	$4,508,500 	$450,850.00 
    Twins 	        11	10	$4,233,100 	$423,310.00 
    Blue Jays 	12	9	$3,675,700 	$408,411.11 
    White Sox 	12	10	$3,892,100 	$389,210.00 
    Indians 	10	10	$3,853,000 	$385,300.00 
    Marlins 	10	10	$3,544,800 	$354,480.00 
    Dodgers 	11	11	$3,714,600 	$337,690.91 
    Cubs 	        10	10	$3,254,700 	$325,470.00 
    Astros 	        11	11	$3,426,800 	$311,527.27 
    Phillies 	9	9	$2,745,000 	$305,000.00 
    Rangers 	11	7	$1,911,700 	$273,100.00 
    Mets 	        9	7	$1,864,300 	$266,328.57

  16. #75
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    Re: Overdrafting and Overslotting

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I do when you look at their bigger body of work.

    This is the same regime that drafted Mesoraco over Porcello. And this is the same draft that they drafted Leake over Matzek/Crow/Green, Boxberger over Oliver, and Fleury over Stassi. Those are the types of moves that get me discouraged (and I actually like Leake.)

    If they had a history of finding diamonds in the rough and getting to sign them for cheaper than anyone else, great. If they were the Patriots of baseball, who often opt for the lesser known player and turn out to be right, I'd have more faith. At this point, they are getting outspent even by the A's- who many would consider to be the Patriots of baseball in that respect. If I had faith that the Reds scouts knew what no one else seemed to know, than I'd be happy. Instead they have a history of taking the cheaper route for currency's sake (not because their scouts have been so smart), and that strategy has failed to produce premium players.

    That's what this thread is all about.
    26 teams passed on Porcello because of his contract demands. If you think it is smart business to hand out a $11.1M contract to a HS pitchers, then that is your prerogative. I am not giving up on Mesorasco yet, if you want to then that is fine with me.

    I had no problem with the Leake pick. I have no problem with the Reds passing on Arron Crow again. From the limited videos I have seen Crow's mechanics they scare the crap out of me. If I am running a team I am not drafting a guy whose mechanics I don't like, who has high demands on contract issues, and has already played a year in the Independent League because he didn't get the contract he wanted. If the Reds felt that Leake was the best pick at the time I have no problem with it. It would have been nice to see them take a SS but no SS's were ranked that high.

    How many times have you seen Boxburger or Oliver play? It isn't about what BA or BP says about the prospects. A lot of times it comes down to ability and projectability. The Reds obviously liked what Boxburger brought to the table and they drafted him. You can moan and groan all you want about Oliver but right now that is water under the bridge. The impact of these players is a couple of years off into the future and impossible to properly judge right now.

    I believe you have made coments about how the object of money ball was to find an area that other teams were over looking and exploit that area. Maybe the Reds did that. Maybe they found players with the same skill sets that weren't demanding big time contracts and signed them for less money. Maybe it is a good thing that they were able to sign all 11 of their first 10 round picks cheaper than the rest of the league.


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