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Thread: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

  1. #61
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Park-adjusted, OPS+ for 3-yr average from 2005-2007:

    Gomes (113)
    Dunn (130)

    No one would debate who the better player is. Despite the strawman accusations by some, what I'm saying is that for one fifth of the cost, the difference is negligible enough that Gomes becomes a better value on the money spent for his production.
    That's a massive production gap between the two. Massive. It's the difference between Roberto Clemente/Dave Winfield and Dan Driessen/Ben Grieve. Who cares if you save money? That's not the point of playing the games.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  3. #62
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Laynce Nix looked pretty good for a spell too.

    Pay attention to the open sky

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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Laynce Nix looked pretty good for a spell too.
    Yeah, he had me at hello.

  5. #64
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Laynce Nix looked pretty good for a spell too.
    If he was an animal I think he'd be a camel... that's all I got concerning him at this point.

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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    uh...when comparing Gomes and Dunn can we please list HR's, RBI's, AB's...there just might be a slight difference in stats that actually count. Also, there should be a waiver that notes that Gomes played mostly against LHP's during that time period. Give me a break...not much difference...Pit Bull vs ****zu (yes I know the spelling is wrong) in a dog fight...minimal difference...

    I, for another, miss Dunn. Players that produce like he does every single year are very hard to find and are worth the $$$ paid to them.

    Bum

  7. #66
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That's a massive production gap between the two. Massive. It's the difference between Roberto Clemente/Dave Winfield and Dan Driessen/Ben Grieve. Who cares if you save money? That's not the point of playing the games.
    They only differ in roughly 20 runs over the course of a season during those years, adjusted for 600 PA's. However, that's before park-adjustments. After park adjustments, you're looking at around only 15 runs created difference. 1.5 wins is not massive. If that $8 mil allows another position or two to be upgraded, totaling more than 1.5 wins in aggregate, it could be a net gain for the club and done without adding another large contract.

    That would cost the Reds an additional $8 mil for an extra win and a half. That's a lot to pay for a theoretical extra 1.5 wins.

    I don't know that Gomes would be able to produce over 600 plate appearances. He clearly has not done so, or proven that he can. But he has 1,600 career plate appearances and an OPS+ of 110. He has a career HR% of 5 and has sustained a .470 slugging. The sample is large enough to determine that he is capable of hitting, considering those numbers even take into account his atrocious 2008 campaign where he could not lift a shoulder.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #67
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    They only differ in roughly 20 runs over the course of a season during those years, adjusted for 600 PA's. However, that's before park-adjustments. After park adjustments, you're looking at around only 15 runs created difference. 1.5 wins is not massive. If that $8 mil allows another position or two to be upgraded, totaling more than 1.5 wins in aggregate, it could be a net gain for the club and done without adding another large contract.

    That would cost the Reds an additional $8 mil for an extra win and a half. That's a lot to pay for a theoretical extra 1.5 wins.

    I don't know that Gomes would be able to produce over 600 plate appearances. He clearly has not done so, or proven that he can. But he has 1,600 career plate appearances and an OPS+ of 110. He has a career HR% of 5 and has sustained a .470 slugging. The sample is large enough to determine that he is capable of hitting, considering those numbers even take into account his atrocious 2008 campaign where he could not lift a shoulder.
    Allow me to state this clearly again, it's the difference between Clemente/Winfield and Driessen/Grieve. It's a gaping, yawning chasm that highlights just how silly your win calculator is. It's so wide that I don't even need to cover the fact that you cherrypicked the three-year slice in order to put Gomes in the kindest possible light.

    What you have come up with is the sort of rationalization that is becoming epidemic within awful teams.
    Last edited by M2; 08-18-2009 at 04:42 PM.
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  9. #68
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    They only differ in roughly 20 runs over the course of a season during those years, adjusted for 600 PA's.
    There's your problem.
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    I do think it's reasonable for the team to look to replace Dunn with a cost-effective platoon. Shore up the offense in other areas, and the offense will look OK.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    There's your problem.
    Exactly! And not too mention a ratio between 'vs LHP', 'vs RHP' that is weighted much heavier in 'vs LHP' than a player that actually plays and produces on a daily basis regardless of who is pitching.

    Bum

  12. #71
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Allow me to state this clearly again, it's the difference between Clemente/Winfield and Driessen/Grieve. It's a gaping, yawning chasm that highlights just how silly your win calculator is.

    What you have come up with is the sort of rationalization that is becoming epidemic within awful teams.
    No, what we have is a player that, for the 2nd time in his brief career, has put up an OPS+ of 140. The success of small-market teams are based on their ability to find VALUE for the money spent. However, if they spend all their resources on a couple of positions, they will suffer at other positions. Has Billy Beane taught you nothing?

    This team has been strapped with too many bad contracts as it is. While Dunn produces enough that $10 mil would not be a 'bad' contract, it's still more money than the Reds can really dish out to one player without limiting themselves financially. So I'd rather be able to spend the same amount of money on three positions, and have a net gain in wins than put all my resources on one position. That's not an epidemic of anything. That's smart money management.

    My 'win' calculator is from years of documented evidence that roughly 10 runs is worth a win. The difference, then, between 15 runs created given that many PA's is about 1.5 wins. If a 72-win Reds team loses Adam Dunn and replaced him with Jonny Gomes. You get a 70-win Reds team. There's nothing silly about that. Talk to the saber crowd that postulates these numbers, not me.

    You can use the anecdotal player comparisons all you want. But 1.5 wins is 1.5 wins. If I can gain half a win or a win or two by spreading it out over three positions for the same money spent, that's efficient management.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  13. #72
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Adam's thoughts on having a real life hitting coach. No question his approach is very different from this year to his last 3-4 w/ the Reds. I yearn for quality hitting and pitching coaches. Yearn.


    Talk about what hitting coach Rick Eckstein has meant to you and the rest of the Nationals?He's the hardest working guy I've ever been around. He hits the field at about noon and he's usually the last one to leave. He watches a lot of video and baseball is his life. He's the best hitting coach I've ever had. From what I hear on the outside, a lot of guys who have had him said that he's the best hitting coach around, and I believe it.


    What specifically has he done for you as a hitter?
    He knows your swing, everyone's swing. He watches so much video that he can almost mimic your swing because of how much video he watches. He relates well and his terminology is really easy to catch on. He keeps it simple and he doesn't give too much information.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  14. #73
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    While Dunn produces enough that $10 mil would not be a 'bad' contract, it's still more money than the Reds can really dish out to one player without limiting themselves financially.
    If this is the case, then Castellini should sell the Reds and buy a nice beet farm somewhere.

    If the Reds can't/won't pay $10 million for a .900 OPS player, they need to be in a different business.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  15. #74
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I do think it's reasonable for the team to look to replace Dunn with a cost-effective platoon. Shore up the offense in other areas, and the offense will look OK.
    Sure, just find a CF, SS and C in addition to a quality platoon in LF (in which Gomes is only the RH hitting portion) and you might have reasonable offense.

    No one's saying Dunn is irreplaceable, but there is a gulf between the production of Dunn and Gomes that in no way should be minimized. It's almost 40 RC/162. And there's a school of thought, to which I subscribe, that outstanding offensive contributors drive more actual scoring than their raw numbers indicate. The theory basically is that scoring will congeal around a guy like Lance Berkman, creating team productivity that extends beyond even the obvious gap to a guy like James Loney. Along those lines, note the Manny effect on the Dodgers.

    Hardly surprising that the Reds offense is a mess while the Nats offense has improved quite a bit since Dunn arrived.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  16. #75
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    Re: More kind words from Dunn as he makes his return to Cincy

    Sure, just find a CF, SS and C in addition to a quality platoon in LF (in which Gomes is only the RH hitting portion) and you might have reasonable offense.

    No one's saying Dunn is irreplaceable, but there is a gulf between the production of Dunn and Gomes that in no way should be minimized. It's almost 40 RC/162. And there's a school of thought, to which I subscribe, that outstanding offensive contributors drive more actual scoring than their raw numbers indicate. The theory basically is that scoring will congeal around a guy like Lance Berkman, creating team productivity that extends beyond even the obvious gap to a guy like James Loney. Along those lines, note the Manny effect on the Dodgers.

    Hardly surprising that the Reds offense is a mess while the Nats offense has improved quite a bit since Dunn arrived.
    Sure. I'm not arguing that the team has succeeded in helping their offense via the LF platoon here in 2009. But going forward, if they can help themselves at CF and SS (not hard to do, and why I like the notion of signing Tejada, for example), adding in the boost they'll get from Rolen, I'd think a Dickerson/Gomes or Dickerson/Wlad platoon in left, just to name the in-house options, may be enough to keep Redszone from relapsing into yet another round of UFC-style Dunn debating.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini


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