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Thread: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

  1. #16
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    IIRC, on 26 July Terry Reynolds suggested that JF was at the right level and that he should probably start next year in AA. What has changed?

    Obviously, his offensive numbers have exploded. Most importantly, the power numbers are up. Third base is a power position. As good a ball player as Frazier is, JF has more HR potential.

    Defense has been a huge problem for JF. What stands out is that in roughly the same number of chances at Carolina as he had last year at Sarasota, he has committed twice as many errors. A player his age ought to be improving defensively. Maybe they want to look at him defensively in another park. I am not a 'stick a bat in LF fan'. He has the arm for outfield, but not the speed. I think realistically, JF must play 3B or 1B. LH hitting first basemen is an overpopulated category for the Reds. To me, it must be 3B.

    The other change since 26 July is that Rolen was signed. The Reds will need to decide whether they want to offer him a contract that will run beyond 2010. Doing so will unquestionably be more expensive than replacing him from within the system. Doing it earlier will likely be cheaper than doing it later, but it carries more risk as well. The more they know about the home grown 3B candidates, the better their decision making position.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Pretty well? I'd give him more credit than that. At some point you have to admit the kid is a legitimate prospect who has made big progress in his approach.
    His approach has been pretty good the last 3 months compared to what it was, but its still over a 3-1 K/BB rate and thats about where guys are considered iffy. You can give him more credit if you want. I give him a ton of credit for making the change, but in the grand scheme of things his K/BB rate is still questionable if we only look at the last 2+ months.

    What's shortsighted about this move? How could it backfire in the long run? For all we know, the Reds are showcasing Francisco for a trade. With the promotion of Barker, they needed someone, and it's likely Rick Sweet had some input, looking at what he wanted on his infield, and it's also likely David Bell was asked for his opinion. I tend to think the people on the inside have a lot better perspective here.
    What is short sighted about it is that two other guys in AA play positions that we need to fill in 2010 and have performed well enough to get a promotion (Frazier and Cozart). Instead we promoted a 3B with a long history of plate discipline issues who has had all of 40% of 1 season where he has shown he has a clue of what he is doing at the plate outside of 'swing at everything' when we have a guy that we just traded for to play 3B through 2010, while we have no internal options other than Frazier or Cozart to start at SS or LF for us in 2010, but we aren't going to give them a look and see what they have in AAA this year? That is the definition of short sighted.

    As for how it can backfire.... well by not knowing what Frazier/Cozart can do in AAA it basically means we have no plans of them starting April 2010 in the majors. That means we will go out and spend money to bring someone in to play. That means when those guys are ready, they will still be in the minors while the money plays and probably sucks because we aren't going to spend enough money to get someone good there. So we could very well be stuck with another A Gonz performance at SS next year because we know that the money plays in Cincinnati, meaning that well, we are going to again suck in 2010.

  4. #18
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    The fact that Francisco is on the 40-man roster has a lot to do with this. His timetable is two years shorter than Frazier's and Cozart's, and the Reds need to figure out soon if he can help the Reds. Alfonso Soriano has had similar results and peripherals while being rushed through the minors even more so than Francisco, and it doesn't seem to have hurt him too much in the long run. I don't think this was a wrong move by the Reds.

  5. #19
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Perhaps with the promotion of Barker to AAAA, the Reds needed someone to play first base, and wanted to give Francisco a look there? I am grasping at straws here.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  6. #20
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    The fact that Francisco is on the 40-man roster has a lot to do with this. His timetable is two years shorter than Frazier's and Cozart's, and the Reds need to figure out soon if he can help the Reds. Alfonso Soriano has had similar results and peripherals while being rushed through the minors even more so than Francisco, and it doesn't seem to have hurt him too much in the long run. I don't think this was a wrong move by the Reds.
    Soriano's K/BB rate in full seasons (since 2001 at age 25)
    Code:
    4.3
    6.8
    3.4
    3.7
    3.8
    2.4
    4.2
    2.4
    2.9
    Francisco's K/BB in the minors
    Code:
    7.2
    7
    6.47
    4.55
    Francisco has barely come close to what Soriano did in his worst years outside of 2002. Oh, and Soriano's minor league K/BB was 2.75. Francisco hasn't had a full season yet that was half as good as that.

  7. #21
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Juan Francisco as a 22-year-old in AA:
    4.3% BB
    19.6% K
    4.55 K/BB ratio
    .818 OPS

    Alfonso Soriano as a 24-year-old in AAA:
    5.1% BB
    17.2% K
    3.4 K/BB ratio
    .791 OPS

    Alfonso Soriano as a 26-year-old in MLB (the second-best season of his Major Leauge career):
    3.1% BB
    21.2% K
    6.83 K/BB ratio
    .880 OPS

    As we all know, plate discipline is one of the last skills that develops in a player, so of course Soriano would have an advantage. Anyway, peripherals are nice, but they don't always tell the whole story.

    Players with these types of peripherals typically fall on their faces at AA, but Francisco, like Soriano, has managed to stay afloat. Soriano is a special player, and maybe Francisco is, too. There's only way to find out, and that's to put them against more advanced pitching to see what happens. The Reds are running out of time, and I think this is the Reds' best chance of finding out what kind of player they have.

  8. #22
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    The fact that Francisco is on the 40-man roster has a lot to do with this. His timetable is two years shorter than Frazier's and Cozart's, and the Reds need to figure out soon if he can help the Reds. Alfonso Soriano has had similar results and peripherals while being rushed through the minors even more so than Francisco, and it doesn't seem to have hurt him too much in the long run. I don't think this was a wrong move by the Reds.
    Exactly correct. This must be strictly because of JF's forty man roster status.

    It has nothing to do with Frazier or even readiness. I'm sure the Reds know Francisco could use more AA time in the best of all worlds.

    Some players signed very young use up their option years before they are fully formed players. Look at Bailey. He's still a very young pitcher yet he is out of options after this season.

    So JF has to be on a faster track than, say, Frazier who was drafted out of college.

    I don't know JF's particular timetable but he has too much talent for the Reds to find him out of options. They need to get him ready or trade him.

    Nobody has to worry that he will be the Reds third sacker imminently. They traded for this Rolen guy.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-15-2009 at 05:02 PM.

  9. #23
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    I wasnt aware the Reds werent actively getting Juan ready. I'm glad to find out they are now trying. Good move.

  10. #24
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Juan Francisco as a 22-year-old in AA:
    4.3% BB
    19.6% K
    4.55 K/BB ratio
    .818 OPS

    Alfonso Soriano as a 24-year-old in AAA:
    5.1% BB
    17.2% K
    3.4 K/BB ratio
    .791 OPS

    Alfonso Soriano as a 26-year-old in MLB (the second-best season of his Major Leauge career):
    3.1% BB
    21.2% K
    6.83 K/BB ratio
    .880 OPS

    As we all know, plate discipline is one of the last skills that develops in a player, so of course Soriano would have an advantage. Anyway, peripherals are nice, but they don't always tell the whole story.

    Players with these types of peripherals typically fall on their faces at AA, but Francisco, like Soriano, has managed to stay afloat. Soriano is a special player, and maybe Francisco is, too. There's only way to find out, and that's to put them against more advanced pitching to see what happens. The Reds are running out of time, and I think this is the Reds' best chance of finding out what kind of player they have.
    Peripherals do tell most of the story. Soriano's 2002 was an incredible historical outlier. No one puts up good seasons with peripherals that bad more than 1 season because its just not possible. As for the Reds running out of time, he has 2 full seasons left to be in the minor leagues. They aren't running out of time.

  11. #25
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Peripherals do tell most of the story. Soriano's 2002 was an incredible historical outlier. No one puts up good seasons with peripherals that bad more than 1 season because its just not possible. As for the Reds running out of time, he has 2 full seasons left to be in the minor leagues. They aren't running out of time.

    Respectfully but strongly disagree -- he doesn't have plenty of time. If your timetable is correct, in two years Francisco has to be in the major leagues TO STAY. No more options. No returns.

    That means the Reds need to expose him to high level pitching as soon as possible.

    Late this year and all of next year at AAA. Then, by 2011, if he's still a Red, he gets some major league time and hopefully by 2012 is a major leaguer to stay.

    Given this timetable there is nothing wrong with letting Francisco spend the last few weeks of this minor league season getting his feet wet at AAA.

    And while I wouldn't advocate it, if Francisco remains hot in AAA these concluding weeks of the AAA season, as a forty man roster player he could even get a Sept. major league callup.

  12. #26
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Respectfully but strongly disagree -- he doesn't have plenty of time. If your timetable is correct, in two years Francisco has to be in the major leagues TO STAY. No more options. No returns.
    If he isn't ready by April 2012 at age 24.5 then odds are we won't be losing much to worry about.

    Given this timetable there is nothing wrong with letting Francisco spend the last few weeks of this minor league season getting his feet wet at AAA.
    I would be on board with this if at least one of Frazier/Cozart also went to AAA with him since they can fill a Reds MLB NEED next season. Since they didn't, then I stand by what I said and that this is a mistake move because others should have gotten priority because of the REDS 2010 needs.

    And while I wouldn't advocate it, if Francisco remains hot in AAA these concluding weeks of the AAA season, as a forty man roster player he could even get a Sept. major league callup.
    Sure, he could. Starting in April 2010 he will still be back in Louisville unless Scott Rolen gets hurt seriously.

  13. #27
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If he isn't ready by April 2012 at age 24.5 then odds are we won't be losing much to worry about.


    .
    Perhaps we just disagree on how difficult it is to break into the major leagues from AAA. I don't think it's a given that the deadline for player readiness is age 24.5. Drew Stubbs is older than that, is still a minor leaguer, has a .729 OPS at AAA. Being objective, if Stubbs had no options left, would you be confident that he's ready to be a major leaguer on a no returns, no options basis?

    As for Cozart and Frazier, well, somebody has to play for the Mudcats at AA. So they advanced the guy on the forty man roster, JF, who is also hot right now. There's only a few weeks left in the minor league season, it's not that big a deal.

  14. #28
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    His approach has been pretty good the last 3 months compared to what it was, but its still over a 3-1 K/BB rate and thats about where guys are considered iffy. You can give him more credit if you want. I give him a ton of credit for making the change, but in the grand scheme of things his K/BB rate is still questionable if we only look at the last 2+ months.


    What is short sighted about it is that two other guys in AA play positions that we need to fill in 2010 and have performed well enough to get a promotion (Frazier and Cozart). Instead we promoted a 3B with a long history of plate discipline issues who has had all of 40% of 1 season where he has shown he has a clue of what he is doing at the plate outside of 'swing at everything' when we have a guy that we just traded for to play 3B through 2010, while we have no internal options other than Frazier or Cozart to start at SS or LF for us in 2010, but we aren't going to give them a look and see what they have in AAA this year? That is the definition of short sighted.

    As for how it can backfire.... well by not knowing what Frazier/Cozart can do in AAA it basically means we have no plans of them starting April 2010 in the majors. That means we will go out and spend money to bring someone in to play. That means when those guys are ready, they will still be in the minors while the money plays and probably sucks because we aren't going to spend enough money to get someone good there. So we could very well be stuck with another A Gonz performance at SS next year because we know that the money plays in Cincinnati, meaning that well, we are going to again suck in 2010.
    I don't see what Cozart being in AA has to do with Francisco. He does not play the same position. So promoting Francisco and not Cozart is a non-starter. Not even relevant to the discussion.

    You could argue Frazier should have been called before Francisco, since they at least have some positional likeness to them. So if we're looking down the road, Frazier, in theory, would be ready first so he's the one they should call up. It seems to me, though, that they aren't planning on using Frazier at third, meaning then they really want to challenge Francisco.

    I would like to get Frazier ready for after next season. That's assuming, though, he settles in at third. If the Reds don't have that plan, then calling up Juan is not really all that bad.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #29
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Perhaps we just disagree on how difficult it is to break into the major leagues from AAA. I don't think it's a given that the deadline for player readiness is age 24.5. Drew Stubbs is older than that, is still a minor leaguer, has a .729 OPS at AAA. Being objective, if Stubbs had no options left, would you be confident that he's ready to be a major leaguer on a no returns, no options basis?
    Drew Stubbs value isn't entirely reliant on his bat.

    [/quote]
    As for Cozart and Frazier, well, somebody has to play for the Mudcats at AA. So they advanced the guy on the forty man roster, JF, who is also hot right now. There's only a few weeks left in the minor league season, it's not that big a deal.[/QUOTE]

    The Mudcats aren't important to the Reds plans. At least they shouldn't be. As for it not being a big deal, it kind of is because Louisville is very good. They will be in the playoffs and the guys could likely get an extra 50 at bats in the playoffs after everyone else is done playing.

  16. #30
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    Re: Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

    One thing I could see is that maybe they put up Francisco to get those extra ABs? If thats their reasoning I could maybe understand it.


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