Juan Fransisco is now a Louisville Bat!

[mth123]

This whole discussion stems from whether Francisco should have been promoted ahead of Frazier and/or Cozart. I don't see many saying that Francisco may end better than those guys, but the Reds needed to make a move now. Facts are:

1. Frazier and Cozart will not be ready for the major league roster until late 2010 and neither needs to be protected over the winter on the 40 man roster. JF is already completing his second year on the 40 man. The urgency to pass the next challenge lies more with him than Frazier or Cozart. Their turns will come.

2. Now is the time for the promotion to AAA. JF has been killing the ball while both FRazier and Cozart have been in deep slumps. Seems pretty simple IMO.

3. Francisco is the 3B at AA. The 3B position at AAA is what came open when Barker was promoted and Bankston mercifully moved back moved to 1B. Since JF has been playing well, going any other route would have been like posting a giant sign above JF's head that says "we think he sucks too so you other GMs don't value him in any negotiation."

4. It sends a horrible message to the other kids in the organization that they could be passed over even if they are playing well. It may not be politics, but it sure would look like it. Neither Frazier nor Cozart play 3B and both are slumping. Taking either of them over a hot Francisco would have been really bad form IMO.

[GOYA]

Other than first base, the infield in Louisville has been undermanned most of the season. Bankston has been there simply to put his bat in the lineup. With the callups of Richar and Rosales, the lack of valid bats has been apparent. We've got guys with decent gloves but weak bats at 2nd and SS. Bolivar, Eymann, Griffin and Valaika don't exactly strike fear in opposing pitchers.

So besides Bankston moving to first, the middle infield needs shoring up too. The Bats are the Reds' organization's only hope of a championship at any level this year. Cozart would present a problem with Valaika being the guy he would replace. But Frazier could move up and replace Eymann without any problems at all.

[RedsManRick]

Jose Guillen has slugged .500 once in his entire career and it came the year he spent in GABP. He was only over .470 two other times in his career. Guillen also has a career OPS of .764 for a corner outfielder. Kevin Kouzmanoff plays in SD so his OPS is tougher to gauge, but his OPS+ is league average for his career. Neither of those guys would be considered 'very successful' by my definition.

And you are right that we won't know his K/BB as a major leaguer, but why would we believe its going to dramatically improve over what he has shown as a minor leaguer? That just doesn't happen often. He has 2 years left to really hone in the strikezone. If he continues down the 4-1 path, there isn't much hope for him being a good major league hitter.

I think Sammy Sosa is the example of a guy who learned to take a walk in the majors after being a high K, low BB guy when he was young. He went from 38/135 at age 24 to 116/153 at age 32. That said, his increase in walks happened at the same time he went from a 35-40 HR guy to a 60 HR guy. One might suggest that as his power shot through the roof, pitchers stopped taking as many chances with him in the zone. And they might also suggest that his increase in power from 40 to 60 was not natural...

But that's I think the concept people have in mind. Though people were making the same case about Wily Mo Pena and we all know how that played out.

My question is about the nature of his problem. Does he not walk because he chases pitches out of the zone and either strikes out or puts them in play -- or is he simply swinging and missing within the zone, thus encouraging pitchers to throw him lots of strikes. It would seem to me that the former is more easily improved upon than the latter.

[GIDP]

Ryan Howard has a high K/BB rate. So do Adam Jones, Alex Rios, Mark Reynolds, Freddie Sanchez.

And aren't Jose Guillen and Kevin Kouzmanoff -- with very high K/BB rates -- good players having very successful careers? Jose Guillen may be a good comp for Francisco. I'd take a young Jose Guillen on this team over the group we have out there now.

K/BB rate - standing alone - isn't a determinative stat, nor is it necessarily a good predictor. Keep in mind, JF is still a developing player so we don't even know what his major league K/BB rate will be once he settles in at the big league level.

Yea and those 5 guys you named have much better rates even still. I was trying to find guys that were closer to Juan and what he's likely to produce. Juan isnt even to the rate of the guys I named yet.

The 1 or 2 seasons Guillen has been a good hitter he has had such a huge ISO that hes never reproduced. If hes not hitting for average hes falling flat on his face.

Its not impossible to have a good year with a out of wack k/BB rate, its just very very unlikely that you are going to be consistently productive doing such things.

[Kc61]

Its all about projection. Soto has/had the looks to be easier to project as a major league regular. Until this year, Francisco had never shown anything resembling a clue of how to approach the plate with a plan and guys like that simply don't turn into successful major leaguers without making drastic changes and he hadn't shown any to that point (coming into 2009).

It's a question of what you want to look at.

K/BB rate doesn't mean much to me. Separately, Ks mean a lot. BBs mean a lot.

Homers mean a lot. Consistent hitting of extra base hits means a lot. The knack of hitting with men on base can tell you something.

Soto is better in the K department. They are about even in the walk department.

Francisco wins in all other offensive categories to date, IMO.

[Kc61]

Yea and those 5 guys you named have much better rates even still. I was trying to find guys that were closer to Juan and what he's likely to produce. Juan isnt even to the rate of the guys I named yet.

The 1 or 2 seasons Guillen has been a good hitter he has had such a huge ISO that hes never reproduced. If hes not hitting for average hes falling flat on his face.

Its not impossible to have a good year with a out of wack k/BB rate, its just very very unlikely that you are going to be consistently productive doing such things.

You know, I agree that with his historical BB rate, Francisco will have limitations as a hitter. But he will still be a productive major leaguer. He recently has improved his OBP numbers. If that improvement continues, he's a stud.

[GIDP]

You know, I agree that with his historical BB rate, Francisco will have limitations as a hitter. But he will still be a productive major leaguer. He recently has improved his OBP numbers. If that improvement continues, he's a stud.

Hes improved from very bad to still pretty bad.

[dougdirt]

It's interesting how you view JF as having hit a ceiling at age 22 in that certain tendencies, you say, aren't overcome. Yet Drew Stubbs is a much older prospect with a .726 OPS and you see all kinds of growth coming with his ultimate advancement to the big leagues.

I have never said Francisco has hit his ceiling as a hitter at age 22. I have said that he must continue to make improvements in the plate discipline department or he won't be a good major leaguer because all of his value must come from his bat because his defense isn't good.

With Stubbs, I don't see all kinds of growth coming with him. I see his power coming around a bit more. I see Francisco's and just about any other player under 27 having an increase in power for the most part (some guys, particularly small guys, not so much).

[dougdirt]

My question is about the nature of his problem. Does he not walk because he chases pitches out of the zone and either strikes out or puts them in play -- or is he simply swinging and missing within the zone, thus encouraging pitchers to throw him lots of strikes. It would seem to me that the former is more easily improved upon than the latter.

As Baseball America recently put it 'But Francisco has managed to hold his own in the Southern League, despite his tendency to start swing at pitches when he's standing in the on-deck circle.', he has problems not swinging at pitches a foot out of the zone.

[dougdirt]

It's a question of what you want to look at.

K/BB rate doesn't mean much to me. Separately, Ks mean a lot. BBs mean a lot.

Homers mean a lot. Consistent hitting of extra base hits means a lot. The knack of hitting with men on base can tell you something.

Soto is better in the K department. They are about even in the walk department.

Francisco wins in all other offensive categories to date, IMO.

K/BB means a whole lot. Guys that have good rates tend to be very good players. Guys with bad ones tend to be bad players. There are a few outliers, but like the chart I showed earlier, the better the K/BB, the better your chances are to be a productive major league hitter. The worse the K/BB, the worse your chances are to be a productive major league hitter.

[dougdirt]

Doug, I do want to commend you on the graph. It's interesting, for sure.

What I wonder, though, is could you find the same results by simply using walk rates and comparing that to OPS over 800? I imagine you'll find a very similar graph. If so, then the "K" part of the equation is, if not meaningless, a very small portion of what's fueling the success.

I find K/BB to be important. However, I think the K aspect is only important under extreme conditions one way or another. If a player hovers around an average K-rate, it's the walks then that concern me.

In this case, I simply think the K/BB ratio tells us what we already know: that Francisco needs to walk more.

I agree with you that only in extreme cases does the K part come into play. Guys who walk a lot can also K a lot. Guys who don't walk but make contact 90+% of the time also can have success.

Here is the chart you asked for, but I limited it to 1990-2008 to keep it at 4500+ players rather than 11,000 guys. 300 at Bats was the cut off.

[Brutus]

I agree with you that only in extreme cases does the K part come into play. Guys who walk a lot can also K a lot. Guys who don't walk but make contact 90+% of the time also can have success.

Here is the chart you asked for, but I limited it to 1990-2008 to keep it at 4500+ players rather than 11,000 guys. 300 at Bats was the cut off.

Thanks.

What is fascinating is that there is such a big differential between 14 and 11% and then 11 and 8%. Jumping into the 8 and then 11 brackets is when your OPS apparently takes a leap.

I will say that BB/K rates in the minors seem to have among the highest correlation to success at the MLB level in using peripherals. So I do think it's something important to consider.

[osuceltic]

As Baseball America recently put it 'But Francisco has managed to hold his own in the Southern League, despite his tendency to start swing at pitches when he's standing in the on-deck circle.', he has problems not swinging at pitches a foot out of the zone.

Yep, .281, 22, 74, .500 slugging, .820 OPS. I'd say he was holding his own.

Todd Frazier has good numbers too. Better OBP, worse power. One guy gives you an extra walk every five games, the other guy gives you about 70 percent more HR power.

Neither guy is likely to help the Reds on opening day in 2010, so I think all this wailing and gnashing is overblown.

It gets right back to the fact that there are several ways to skin a cat, but many on this board refuse to accept that. Productive big-leaguers come in different packages with different skills. Successful teams are built with different philosophies. The sun doesn't rise and set with OBP or walk rates. In the case of Francisco, I look at a 22-year-old kid reaching AAA with the above numbers, who doesn't have great strike zone recognition, and think, "just imagine what he can do when he becomes a little more selective." Maybe he will, maybe not, but he's starting with some pretty impressive talent. That's harder to teach than the strike zone.

[GIDP]

Todd Frazier is far and away better offensive player right now and its not really even close.

[OnBaseMachine]

Francisco was starting to make some strides with his plate discipline and now the Reds go and do this. Man oh man. I would've left him in Carolina the rest of the year and maybe part of next year too.