Me too.Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp
Me too.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Agreed.
I hope he becomes an .800 OPS bat, but I sincerely doubt it. Given his performance to date as a professional, I could not take any projection of that kind of production seriously.
funny thing is that will Stubbs is light years beyond Willy T he is ill suited to be a leadoff hitter at this point. However, there is no chance that Dusty would move him to the lower part of the order.
Of course the Reds real problem is that they have no one who would be a good leadoff hitter ... Hanigan might make a decent #2 hitter (he would certainly be better than Janish)
First of all, it's a new economy. I don't think the owners will rush back to the old one.
Second, of all the guys listed, IMO Juan Pierre is the closest OPS match for Stubbs. No way on this planet will Stubbs have a Johnny Damon career.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
the main problem Stubbs has is that he doesn't get on base enough as his BBs have dried up. He does have a 730 OPS but I doubt anyone thinks he will continue to hit a HR once every 20 ABs. For a interesting copmparison see what Dickerson did last August/September and what happened this year. Stubbs is likely to be Dickerson minus the BBs.
Funny... I thought the "drawn out" element was its strength. It has been long, but there has been a huge variety of points expressed, and lots of nuances to the different evidence used to back them up.
I was even going to use the word "epic." Kind of like War and Peace. Or maybe Lord of the Rings. If you don't want to sit still for the time it takes to read them, that's your choice.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Ok, so you've done a great job of assembling overpriced/overpaid OF.
Crawford, Damon and Anderson are the only ones I can remotely justify their contracts, but the others were situational overpayments.
Hunter, Pierre, and Rowand were all FAs who were rewarded with too much money after a career year where they'd vastly outproduced their career norms, and with a lack of FA talent teams overpaid for them.
Wells, Winn and Byrnes were guys that were re-upped by their current team at "market value", b/c they were afraid of losing them to another team via FA. Unfortunately, when you have those other crappy contracts out there, "market value" faces inflation.
Like I said, maybe "market value" continues to inflate and Stubbs finds himself with a handsome fortune due to market conditions and him meeting minimum criteria, but assuming he goes to sign his first big contract with the Reds after arbitration, based on everything I've seen from him he won't sniff $10M per season.
I have a feeling the power will go down as the OBP goes up.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
So you think pitchers will start to nibble now that he's shown some power in the majors? I don't know if he's shown enough just yet for pitchers to fear his bat personally.
usually doesn't work that way unless the batting average spikes.
Listen, I'm by no means suggesting these players were compensated as they should have been. But that's kind of the point... it's all relative. If nothing else, this list shows that players with a similar skillset, or have played his similar premium position, get paid handsomely.
I'm not saying, based on his current production, that Stubbs would warrant $10 mil when he becomes a free agent. But I can definitely see it happening. Not after Arbitration, mind you. I would expect him to get bought out before Arbitration, making somewhere in the neighborhood of $5-7 mil. But when free agency hits, by then if he's the player I expect, I think $10 mil is very likely.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
In regards to Stubbs' walks being done, I'd just like to point out the small sample size. His OBP has jumped up 15 points following his first two plate appearances. His BB% went from 5.8 to 7.6, and I think it's only going to go up.
But that isn't supposed to happen!?!
I realize that. It's 'because he's Drew K. Stubbs.' The 'K' is for 'strikeout', in case anyone was wondering.
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