So how did Stubbs look out there?

[nate]

I have a question.

Why

must

he

bat

leadoff?

Yes, I know all the "Dusty" related answers.

I suppose my question is rhetorical.

Nevermind!

[lollipopcurve]

I don't know, he's hard to get a read on for me. Obviously, still a work in progress. It looks to me like he may struggle some with his mechanics/swing. At times he looks like a hands hitter and at other times you can see he's using more leverage. Not easy for a guy as tall as Stubbs to get it all in synch.

[Highlifeman21]

That was my biggest complaint about a certain left fielder. I love a walk. Sometimes hitters are overly selective and miss a pitch in doing so. Strikeouts aren't inherently evil, but a BA and the BA-driven aspects of OBP-SLG-OPS could go up if you are willing to swing at good pitches early in the count, when you get them.

I think the eagerness to preach selectivity and walks sometimes works against young hitters. They get gun-shy about swinging at pitches they could crush.

Is it possible that Stubbs walks due to getting lucky with guesses that balls are out of the zone?

He'll let 1 meat pitch go by, but then he seems to at least foul off subsequent meat pitches, which then forces pitchers to attempt to nibble (why? I have no idea... they should attack a guy with contact issues, no?), and by them nibbling, he draws his walk.

He doesn't seem to recognize pitches as well as he should, which says to me he isn't ready for The Show quite yet.

[Spring~Fields]

I have a question.

Why

must

he

bat

leadoff?

Yes, I know all the "Dusty" related answers.

I suppose my question is rhetorical.

Nevermind!

Mulitple Choice ?
A. Bias

B. Superstitions

C. Fixations

D. Obsessions

E. Confirmation Bias
http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles...ation_bias.htm

http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Confirmation_bias

F. All the above

[RedEye]

Is it possible that Stubbs walks due to getting lucky with guesses that balls are out of the zone?

I think that's possible. I suppose in the majors, pitchers will take advantage of that, too. Perhaps we are about to see Stubbs hit his wall. Or, perhaps we are about to see him adjust to a new level once again. Only time will tell.

[RedEye]

Here's another question -- now that Stubbs has reached the major leagues, can he still be considered a complete "bust"?

[Highlifeman21]

Here's another question -- now that Stubbs has reached the major leagues, can he still be considered a complete "bust"?

Just b/c he's in a crappy organization where he can get promoted to The Show doesn't mean he's ready for The Show, ya know?

Drew Stubbs would still be in the minors for good teams, or would have been traded by good teams to get actual talent to help them for a playoff push.

Instead, he's in the Reds organization, and he's on the 25 man roster b/c injures have exposed our lack of depth, thus the promotion.

Given his age, he should be more developed than he is, so in that respect, I'd still list him in the "bust" category.

We don't know what he'll do over the next 5 years, but unless he makes dramatic improvements in his game, I think he'll be hard pressed to lose the "bust" label.

[flyer85]

small sample size but the early return on BBs is not encouraging.

[WebScorpion]

At each level Stubbs has taken at least a full season to adjust offensively. If not for injuries to the Reds outfield, he would still be in Louisville. I don't see him doing a lot offensively until some time in 2011. Think of him like the hitting version of Homer Bailey...some players just take longer to mature. That said, he's the best centerfielder (defensively) I've seen in Cincinnati since Eric Davis. Junior was a shadow of his former self by the time he arrived.

[lollipopcurve]

Seems deserving of additional conversation now that Stubbs has 3 HRs in about 65 ABs. Obviously, the sample size is still way too small to make judgments about the long term, but my guess is that the optimism/pessimism ratio is rising.

Current line, after 2 hits in 5 of his last 6 games: .246/.281/.426/.707 20Ks/3 BBs

All of his HRs have been off righties. The one he hit to right-center off Chavez was pretty impressive -- several rows back, it gets out at a lot of parks, not just GAB.

His defense looks good to me, but I have my doubts about it being exceptional. Time will tell. Baserunning is a strength, though I think they're going to want him to get a little more aggressive with SBs.

At the beginning of his callup, I said I didn't expect great things, but I wanted to see flashes. The notion being that this would be an important learning experience, and that if his talent could shine through at times, then he could take something positive into 2010 along with knowledge about the kind of adjustments he'll need to make. So far, he has shown flashes -- primarily his power, and that's very encouraging. My sense is that he's streaky, and he could very well go 1-20 over the next 5 games. But I'm more than satisfied so far that his tools all translate to the major leagues.

[jojo]

20Ks/3 BBs seems to be the spoiled nut that might ruin the barrel and I think the genesis of alot of people concerns.

[Sea Ray]

But I'm more than satisfied so far that his tools all translate to the major leagues.

I am particularing impressed with his tools. He has a very quick bat so I suspect that bat speed will lend itself to a few HRs. His defensive skills are also impressive to me.

No question he needs to improve on his pitch selection at the plate and cut down on strike outs. He has shown the ability to improve his game at every stop so let's leave him in Cincinnati for awhile and see how he does

[lollipopcurve]

20Ks/3 BBs seems to be the spoiled nut that might ruin the barrel and I think the genesis of alot of people concerns.

Yeah, it's a concern, but the feeling was that his *good* plate discipline #s in the minors would not translate due to his lack of power. Now that he has shown he can hurt you with one swing, it could be that pitchers will start to work more carefully.

Time will tell. Stubbs does appear to have good ball/strike recognition (doesn't swing at many outside the zone), so the plate discipline skillset seems fine. If he can be more aggressive (and successful) early in the count on hittable pitches -- as they are instructing him, apparently -- the K/BB ratio is likely to improve.

[HokieRed]

For a guy who was, I think, not quite ready, he's off to a fine start. Speed, baserunning, defense are all major pluses. Additionally, and Patrick Bateman (formerly known as a traded Reds ex five-tooler) said the most important thing about his minor league career some time back: at each level Stubbs showed himself able to make adjustments, learn what he needed to do, improve himself and put in credible years. Some guys can just keep getting better in ways that others cannot. I think there's evidence Stubbs can be one of those players. Whether he can get to a better balance of K/BB is probably the most important thing to watch.

[TRF]

and Patrick Bateman (formerly known as a traded Reds ex five-tooler) said the most important thing about his minor league career some time back: at each level Stubbs showed himself able to make adjustments,

Sorry but Patrick Bateman is flat wrong.

Stubbs didn't make adjustments in the FSL.

He had a hot start at AA, and quickly cooled after the first week. We was very good his initial call up to AAA (2008) and was abysmal in the AFL.

2009 has been an up and down season for him. hard to say if he's making adjustments, if it's bad luck or what, but he had only 1 good month, one ok month and a horrible April, June and August. His last 28 games before promotion: 0.203 0.266 0.271 0.537 with a .273 BABIP. Even if that BABIP were normalized to .300, it would still be awful.

His LD% for 2009 by month has been very consistent, however, when his FB% creeps up, he seems to hit worse. When his GB% is higher, his numbers rise.

This screams no power to me. Which is ok, if he can make that work. We'll see.

I really hope he proves me wrong, and he did have a great day yesterday.