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Thread: So how did Stubbs look out there?

  1. #751
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I think simply commenting on how bad a thread is is worse than the thread itself.
    Me too.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #752
    Member The Baumer's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Me too.
    Agreed.

  4. #753
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    He's a rookie carrying a .735 OPS. Even projecting him as an 800 OPS, and with his glove/speed and playing a premium position, it doesn't take much squinting to imagine he'll get $10 mil a year.
    I hope he becomes an .800 OPS bat, but I sincerely doubt it. Given his performance to date as a professional, I could not take any projection of that kind of production seriously.

  5. #754
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    funny thing is that will Stubbs is light years beyond Willy T he is ill suited to be a leadoff hitter at this point. However, there is no chance that Dusty would move him to the lower part of the order.

    Of course the Reds real problem is that they have no one who would be a good leadoff hitter ... Hanigan might make a decent #2 hitter (he would certainly be better than Janish)
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  6. #755
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Say what?!

    Torii Hunter (career OPS .802): $17.5 mil this year
    Vernon Wells (career OPS .799): $12.5 mil starting next year
    Juan Pierre (career OPS .720): $10.0 mil this year
    Carl Crawford (career OPS .771): $8.25 mil this year
    Aaron Rowand (career OPS .792): $12.0 mil starting next year
    Johnny Damon (career OPS .794): $13.0 mil this year
    Garrett Anderson (career OPS .793): $12.0 mil prior to this current contract
    Randy Winn (career OPS .763): $8.25 mil this year
    Eric Byrnes (career OPS .760): $11.0 mil this year

    Surely, it's not too awful hard for you to envision Drew Stubbs to make this kind of money in a few years, is it? He's a rookie carrying a .735 OPS. Even projecting him as an 800 OPS, and with his glove/speed and playing a premium position, it doesn't take much squinting to imagine he'll get $10 mil a year.
    First of all, it's a new economy. I don't think the owners will rush back to the old one.

    Second, of all the guys listed, IMO Juan Pierre is the closest OPS match for Stubbs. No way on this planet will Stubbs have a Johnny Damon career.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #756
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    the main problem Stubbs has is that he doesn't get on base enough as his BBs have dried up. He does have a 730 OPS but I doubt anyone thinks he will continue to hit a HR once every 20 ABs. For a interesting copmparison see what Dickerson did last August/September and what happened this year. Stubbs is likely to be Dickerson minus the BBs.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  8. #757
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    This is the most drawn out, horrible thread in the history of this board.
    Funny... I thought the "drawn out" element was its strength. It has been long, but there has been a huge variety of points expressed, and lots of nuances to the different evidence used to back them up.

    I was even going to use the word "epic." Kind of like War and Peace. Or maybe Lord of the Rings. If you don't want to sit still for the time it takes to read them, that's your choice.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  9. #758
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Say what?!

    Torii Hunter (career OPS .802): $17.5 mil this year
    Vernon Wells (career OPS .799): $12.5 mil starting next year
    Juan Pierre (career OPS .720): $10.0 mil this year
    Carl Crawford (career OPS .771): $8.25 mil this year
    Aaron Rowand (career OPS .792): $12.0 mil starting next year
    Johnny Damon (career OPS .794): $13.0 mil this year
    Garrett Anderson (career OPS .793): $12.0 mil prior to this current contract
    Randy Winn (career OPS .763): $8.25 mil this year
    Eric Byrnes (career OPS .760): $11.0 mil this year

    Surely, it's not too awful hard for you to envision Drew Stubbs to make this kind of money in a few years, is it? He's a rookie carrying a .735 OPS. Even projecting him as an 800 OPS, and with his glove/speed and playing a premium position, it doesn't take much squinting to imagine he'll get $10 mil a year.
    Ok, so you've done a great job of assembling overpriced/overpaid OF.

    Crawford, Damon and Anderson are the only ones I can remotely justify their contracts, but the others were situational overpayments.

    Hunter, Pierre, and Rowand were all FAs who were rewarded with too much money after a career year where they'd vastly outproduced their career norms, and with a lack of FA talent teams overpaid for them.

    Wells, Winn and Byrnes were guys that were re-upped by their current team at "market value", b/c they were afraid of losing them to another team via FA. Unfortunately, when you have those other crappy contracts out there, "market value" faces inflation.

    Like I said, maybe "market value" continues to inflate and Stubbs finds himself with a handsome fortune due to market conditions and him meeting minimum criteria, but assuming he goes to sign his first big contract with the Reds after arbitration, based on everything I've seen from him he won't sniff $10M per season.

  10. #759
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    the main problem Stubbs has is that he doesn't get on base enough as his BBs have dried up. He does have a 730 OPS but I doubt anyone thinks he will continue to hit a HR once every 20 ABs. For a interesting copmparison see what Dickerson did last August/September and what happened this year. Stubbs is likely to be Dickerson minus the BBs.
    I have a feeling the power will go down as the OBP goes up.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  11. #760
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I have a feeling the power will go down as the OBP goes up.
    So you think pitchers will start to nibble now that he's shown some power in the majors? I don't know if he's shown enough just yet for pitchers to fear his bat personally.

  12. #761
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I have a feeling the power will go down as the OBP goes up.
    usually doesn't work that way unless the batting average spikes.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  13. #762
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Ok, so you've done a great job of assembling overpriced/overpaid OF.

    Crawford, Damon and Anderson are the only ones I can remotely justify their contracts, but the others were situational overpayments.

    Hunter, Pierre, and Rowand were all FAs who were rewarded with too much money after a career year where they'd vastly outproduced their career norms, and with a lack of FA talent teams overpaid for them.

    Wells, Winn and Byrnes were guys that were re-upped by their current team at "market value", b/c they were afraid of losing them to another team via FA. Unfortunately, when you have those other crappy contracts out there, "market value" faces inflation.

    Like I said, maybe "market value" continues to inflate and Stubbs finds himself with a handsome fortune due to market conditions and him meeting minimum criteria, but assuming he goes to sign his first big contract with the Reds after arbitration, based on everything I've seen from him he won't sniff $10M per season.
    Listen, I'm by no means suggesting these players were compensated as they should have been. But that's kind of the point... it's all relative. If nothing else, this list shows that players with a similar skillset, or have played his similar premium position, get paid handsomely.

    I'm not saying, based on his current production, that Stubbs would warrant $10 mil when he becomes a free agent. But I can definitely see it happening. Not after Arbitration, mind you. I would expect him to get bought out before Arbitration, making somewhere in the neighborhood of $5-7 mil. But when free agency hits, by then if he's the player I expect, I think $10 mil is very likely.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  14. #763
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    In regards to Stubbs' walks being done, I'd just like to point out the small sample size. His OBP has jumped up 15 points following his first two plate appearances. His BB% went from 5.8 to 7.6, and I think it's only going to go up.

  15. #764
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    In regards to Stubbs' walks being done, I'd just like to point out the small sample size. His OBP has jumped up 15 points following his first two plate appearances. His BB% went from 5.8 to 7.6, and I think it's only going to go up.
    But that isn't supposed to happen!?!

  16. #765
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: So how did Stubbs look out there?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    But that isn't supposed to happen!?!
    I realize that. It's 'because he's Drew K. Stubbs.' The 'K' is for 'strikeout', in case anyone was wondering.


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