In a sense, drafting for need happens all the time when teams need to pass on a guy who will be too expensive. There goes the BPA...
In a sense, drafting for need happens all the time when teams need to pass on a guy who will be too expensive. There goes the BPA...
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
Sure. But if you are going to take the first baseman who is going to sign for $2M over the SS who is seen as better by your people who will also sign for $2M because you need a 1B but not a SS, its poor decision making.Originally Posted by mdccclxix
Not necessarily. I'm not talking about reaching and I'm not talking about closing your eyes to the rest of the world. I'm saying take a guy who best rounds out your organizational depth if that guy is worthy of the pick at the time.
The BPA theory would work if you had the answers to the test ahead of time. But since it is a roll of the dice anyway, if there is a guy in the same bucket as the "BPA" who will fill a need while the "BPA" has 2 guys blocking him, go with the guy with the easier road. It just makes sense.
So if your #12 was a college 1B and your #13 was a college SS, they are the two highest ranked guys on your board and there isn't a material gap between the two, you go with the 1st baseman this year?
Absolutely. Heck, even then it still fills out the organization better. The Reds have 1 legit first baseman in the entire organization. Shortstop is loaded with potential at almost every level.
As a 100% supporter of BPA, I'll ask about the SS: is the SS possibly rated more highly than he ought to be because of the perceived importance/difficulty of the position? Is it more likely that a 1b or an SS is going to be rated more highly because of built-in bias about the position?
Because the odds are never good that a team has a race that close. Teams tend to buy into a guy that they know is going to be there and that is where they go. You aren't creating a controversy all that often by drafting someone. It has happened all of one time in the last what, 20 years for the Reds?So if your #12 was a college 1B and your #13 was a college SS, they are the two highest ranked guys on your board and there isn't a material gap between the two, you go with the 1st baseman this year?I'm not sure this is all making sense. I think the problem is that in the first round we're talking about 1-3 type talent, 4-7, 8-12, 13-20, etc. Doug, I think it is very common that two, or more, players are very similarly rated by a team. From there, you take the one a) you can afford b) is the best fit for your organization.
There are often disagreements within an organization on who to take, so we know two players are often close in projection and ability.
2015 Rotation: Under Construction
It's your board so I'm not sure. The scenario involves those rankings being of the drafting team.
Is it a perceived importance if the SS can play 1st if you need him to but not the other way around?
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
Huh?
We have a 26 year old All-Star at the major league level who will hopefully be entrenched there for several years to come.
We have the 2008 first round pick, and #1 or #2 hitting prospect in the organization who by most accounts cannot play anywhere other than 1B.
Finally, we have a plethora of other players who's best position may yet just be 1B, including the other two top hitting prospects in the organization (Frazier & Francisco), and one of the best players at AAA so far this year (Dorn).
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At SS, we have a 35 year old who most people want to see benched, a reserve who will be 28 this year and has yet to OPS over .601 at the big league level (and has a career OPS of .670 in 4 seasons above A ball).
The minors has Zack Cozart, who many question will ever hit enough to have a sustained major league career, let alone be a starter. I am higher on Cozart than a lot of people, but it is a question no one can answer.
Below that there are a couple of guys in A ball with not nearly enough experience to be able to deduce anything (other than the fact that Miguel Rojas will probably never hit much more than Paul Janish.) Finally, there are some promising guys at the rookie level, but they have done collectively zero so far in their professional careers (Hamilton, Valor, Arias, etc.)
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My point in all this? Saying we have a bigger organizational need at 1B than we do at SS, at least if you consider major league performance and future contribution the most important factor (as opposed to filling out organizational rosters), is absolute malarchy.
Go BLUE!!!
The Reds have Joey Votto for 3 years beyond this one. That is it. We can't count on anything beyond that. The Reds then have 1 guy in the minors who even resembles a major league first baseman and he is playing as much outfield right now as he is first.
The Reds have a legit prospect at every level at shortstop. Sure, they all have questions, it is why they are prospects and not major leaguers. I just don't see first base as an organizational strong suit, especially when we consider solely the minor leagues.
Major league baseball front offices don't consider "solely the minor leagues." They certainly don't do this when considering who to draft in the first round, which was the original point of this argument. Good major league teams draft and develop their minor league systems so that they can (eventually) help the major league team.
As far as Alonso goes, if Votto was gone for any reason (injury, free agent, trade or otherwise) you know that he would be back at 1B in a second, so don't give me the "he's playing as much outfield right now as he is first." Sometimes I think you argue just for the sake of arguing. Now is one of those times. I'm done here.
Last edited by Benihana; 05-04-2010 at 03:57 PM.
Go BLUE!!!
Show me the best SS in the draft who can also hit like the 1b and I'll draft him every time.
Speaking of, do you think Rayszone is starting to get concerned about former #1 overall pick Tim Beckham? Put up an OPS of .713 in a full season of A ball, and is currently OPSing .533 in High A. Sure it's early and obviously he has plenty of time to turn it around, but I would find it a little unsettling as a Rays fan.
Go BLUE!!!
Gordon Beckham?
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."
--Woody Hayes
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