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Thread: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

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  1. #1
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Code:
    April						
    Chris Dickerson	        .205 .321 .341 .662
    Brandon Phillips	.188 .293 .319 .612
    Joey Votto		.346 .411 .568 .979
    Johnny Gomes		Minors	
    Wladimir Balentien 	.310 .323 .448 .771 Seattle
    Ryan Hanigan		.357 .438 .429 .867
    Adam Rosales		.500 .500 .500 1.000 2 AB
    Paul Janish		.357 .438 .429 .867
    Laynce Nix		.310 .355 .621 .976
    Willy Taveras		.262 .351 .338 .689
    Jay Bruce		.258 .338 .530 .868
    Ramon Hernandez	        .246 .303 .344 .647
    Drew Sutton		Minors			
    
    May						June
    Chris Dickerson	        .271 .417 .396 .813	Chris Dickerson	        .333 .394 .429 .823
    Brandon Phillips	.352 .392 .682 1.074	Brandon Phillips	.253 .325 .394 .719
    Joey Votto		.378 .541 .733 1.274	Joey Votto		.321 .387 .500 .887
    Johnny Gomes		.375 .444 .438 .882	Johnny Gomes		.327 .424 .636 1.060
    Wladimir Balentien 	.209 .260 .328 .588	Wladimir Balentien 	.205 .279 .385 .664
    Ryan Hanigan		.314 .410 .392 .802	Ryan Hanigan		.318 .400 .379 .779
    Adam Rosales		.241 .327 .356 .683	Adam Rosales		.079 .178 .079 .257
    Paul Janish		.269 .345 .346 .691	Paul Janish		.148 .179 .185 .364
    Laynce Nix		.242 .304 .484 .788	Laynce Nix		.254 .299 .493 .792
    Willy Taveras		.269 .307 .333 .640	Willy Taveras		.167 .167 .208 .375
    Jay Bruce		.212 .276 .487 .763	Jay Bruce		.187 .292 .385 .677
    Ramon Hernandez	        .312 .383 .419 .802	Ramon Hernandez	        .174 .283 .314 .597
    Drew Sutton		Minors			Drew Sutton		Minors
    
    July						August
    Chris Dickerson	        .215 .292 .277 .569	Chris Dickerson	        .375 .459 .469 .928
    Brandon Phillips	.273 .314 .455 .769	Brandon Phillips	.197 .254 .311 .565
    Joey Votto		.324 .352 .598 .950	Joey Votto		.188 .291 .290 .581
    Johnny Gomes		.213 .304 .525 .829	Johnny Gomes		.239 .286 .587 .873
    Wladimir Balentien 	.095 .208 .238 .446	Wladimir Balentien 	.282 .378 .385 .763
    Ryan Hanigan		.297 .395 .324 .719	Ryan Hanigan		.140 .218 .200 .418
    Adam Rosales		.273 .304 .545 .849	Adam Rosales		.212 .305 .346 .651
    Paul Janish		.176 .333 .176 .509	Paul Janish		.148 .207 .148 .355	
    Laynce Nix		.175 .242 .263 .505	Laynce Nix		.333 .367 .578 .945
    Willy Taveras		.250 .273 .271 .544	Willy Taveras		.222 .236 .241 .477
    Jay Bruce		.138 .138 .241 .379	Jay Bruce		DL	
    Ramon Hernandez	        .273 .350 .303 .653	Ramon Hernandez	        DL	
    Drew Sutton		.071 .133 .143 .276	Drew Sutton		.214 .267 .357 .624
    
    
    
    Season
    C. Dickerson	.274 .369 .373 .742
    B. Phillips	.260 .320 .445 .765
    Joey Votto	.308 .388 .535 .923
    Jonny Gomes	.270 .351 .567 .919
    W. Balentien	.275 .370 .375 .745
    Ryan Hanigan	.275 .364 .335 .699
    Adam Rosales	.209 .293 .323 .616
    Paul Janish	.207 .285 .243 .528
    Laynce Nix	.254 .306 .470 .776
    Jay Bruce	.207 .283 .441 .724
    R Hernandez	.249 .330 .355 .685
    Drew Sutton	.167 .222 .286 .508
    Willy Taveras	.238 .273 .284 .557
    
    
    Janish Minor League
    2008 25 Louisville IL AAA 	.252 .324 .387 .711
    2007 24 Louisville IL AAA	.221 .278 .317 .594
    2007 24 Chattanooga  AA	        .244 .358 .330 .688
    
    Sutton Minor League
    2009 26 2 Teams 2 Lgs AAA       .262 .382 .453 .835
    2008 25 Corpus Christi AA	.317 .408 .523 .931
    2007 24 Corpus Christi AA	.269 .351 .388 .738

  2. #2
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    I always thought it was called average for a reason.

    Nobody hits their season end line every month, do they?
    If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

  3. #3
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    I always thought it was called average for a reason.

    Nobody hits their season end line every month, do they?
    I don't think so I don't know. I was just looking through them at ESPN stats, and I started wondering why some of the players seem to have the differences in their month to month, some slight, some significant. I really don't know why, other than an obvious such as injuries, fatigue etc. I thought that maybe others could shed some light on the reasons.

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    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?
    Injuries, mechanical problems, and stochastic error.

  5. #5
    Beer is good!! George Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    It could be personal problems. Johnny Bench had a very subpar 1975 season which many felt his divorce that was on going thru during the 75' season was part of the reason why. Also I believe he injured his shoulder on a Gary Matthews tag of home during the 75' season.
    "Boys, I'm one of those umpires that misses 'em every once in a while so if it's close, you'd better hit it." Cal Hubbard

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    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by George Anderson View Post
    It could be personal problems. Johnny Bench had a very subpar 1975 season which many felt his divorce that was on going thru during the 75' season was part of the reason why.
    I recall that. It was a bit nasty. We could call that personal distractions and that sometimes even effect the greatest in the game.

  7. #7
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    Injuries, mechanical problems, and stochastic error.
    I learned something new already, I had to look that word up. I had never seen that before in my life

    sto·chas·tic [stə kástik]
    adj
    1. statistics random: involving or showing random behavior
    2. statistics involving probability: involving or subject to probabilistic behavior
    3. involving guesswork: involving guesswork or conjecture (formal)

  8. #8
    Potential Lunch Winner Dom Heffner's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    I just don't think the turning of the calendar effects most players.

    Law of averages would say that you are going to have up and own months.

    It's why it is called "average." You take all the numbers and average them together.

    Of course with the case of the Reds- you have guys who don't have much talent- they can get hot for long enough to hold a job, but they aren't consistent enough to hit at a .300 clip the whole year.

    The guys who can are superstars, but even they are going to fluctuate from any given time period.

    Joey Votto OPsed at a 1.2 clip for the first part of the season- if he kept that up all year, he'd be a hall of famer. He can't keep that up, and it's just the law of averages.

    I just don't see monthly fluctualtions as anything other than ordinary baseball.
    Last edited by Dom Heffner; 08-22-2009 at 01:22 PM.
    If you're watchin' a parade, make sure you stand in one spot, don't follow it, it never changes. And if the parade is boring, run in the opposite direction, you will fast-foward the parade. --Mitch Hedberg

  9. #9
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    I just don't think the turning of the calendar effects most players.

    Law of averages would say that you are going to have up and own months.

    It's why it is called "average." You take all the numbers and average them together.

    Of course with the case of the Reds- you have guys who don't have much talent- they can get hot for long enough to hold a job, but they aren't consistent enough to hit at a .300 clip the whole year.

    The guys who can are superstars, but even they are going to fluctuate from any given time period.

    Joey Votto OPsed at a 1.2 clip for the first part of the season- if he kept that up all year, he'd be a hall of famer. He can't keep that up, and it's just the law of averages.

    I just don't see monthly fluctualtions as anything other than ordinary baseball.
    Each pitch from each pitcher is different, and each pitcher is different from month to month, and the individual swings are different per situation that leads to the compiling of the averages or stats?? I don’t know, maybe I’m thinking too much, right into an empty box?

    I guess I see them sometimes as being very good, then other times I wonder who is wearing their uniform.

  10. #10
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dom Heffner View Post
    I just don't think the turning of the calendar effects most players.
    I think it has more of an effect than most. Granted it is just a day, it is used because it is an easy way to create a split.

    But I think it has more to do psychological than anything else. If you have having an awful stretch of things, the turning of a calendar may be a way to put your bad month behind you. It may be a way to start fresh, turn the page on an awful month, and go into the next month with a renewed focus.

    I look at is somewhat similar with golf. When you play 18 holes why does it matter when you make the turn? Why are some golfers able to turn a great back nine after a horrible front nine? Hole 9 and 10 count the same, but when you make the turn to the back nine you can star over fresh.

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I think it has more of an effect than most. Granted it is just a day, it is used because it is an easy way to create a split.
    Being easy to measure doesn't make it significant.

    I look at is somewhat similar with golf. When you play 18 holes why does it matter when you make the turn? Why are some golfers able to turn a great back nine after a horrible front nine? Hole 9 and 10 count the same, but when you make the turn to the back nine you can star over fresh.
    Because they play better?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #12
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Because they play better?
    What changes so much between hole 9 and 10? Its similar to the same thing that changes going from July 31st to August 1st. When you are able to put a bad month, 9, week, etc. behind you it enables you to start fresh. Monthly stats are easy to measure because there is a start date and and end date. Too often many cast aside psychological things because you can't measure them.

  13. #13
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    What changes so much between hole 9 and 10?
    They play better. It's such a generic example that there's nothing to be drawn from the hole transitioning from single to double digits.

    Its similar to the same thing that changes going from July 31st to August 1st.
    No, it isn't. We're talking in such generic terms with no real data behind it that there's absolutely nothing other than romantic notions to be drawn from it.

    Let's introduce several hundred data sets and start analyzing them. Using the example of "I've seen many do ______" doesn't jibe with the idea of measuring consistency.

    When you are able to put a bad month, 9, week, etc. behind you it enables you to start fresh.
    But what is "putting it behind you?" Is that an emotional thing or a performance thing?

    Emotionally, I can feel better about my approach as witnessed by Jay Bruce the year saying "I feel fine, the hits just aren't falling" and still not be out of my "slump."

    Performance wise, I can have emotional problems and still hit the cover off the ball. For example, Joey Votto this year before going on the DL.

    Monthly stats are easy to measure because there is a start date and and end date.
    Again, convenience doesn't make an accurate measure.

    Too often many cast aside psychological things because you can't measure them.
    This has nothing to do with saying calendar months are a poor way to measure consistency.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  14. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Why, when you flip a coin, does it not alternate heads and tails perfectly? It's called variance and it's part of every event in life. Monthly splits are essentially random, centered around the players true level of ability.

    Yes, there will be patterns if you look hard enough, but those patterns are not predictive over time. In other words, how well a guy has performed in Augusts past doesn't tell you anything insightful about how he's likely to perform next August.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #15
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Why are some baseball players inconsistent by the month? Reasons?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Why, when you flip a coin, does it not alternate heads and tails perfectly? It's called variance and it's part of every event in life. Monthly splits are essentially random, centered around the players true level of ability.

    Yes, there will be patterns if you look hard enough, but those patterns are not predictive over time. In other words, how well a guy has performed in Augusts past doesn't tell you anything insightful about how he's likely to perform next August.
    I am not sure how to write or say this. But, is there a way to adjust players for that variance to maybe a more consistent core number? Kind of like saying for player X who OPS one month .1000, another month OPS .875, another month .925, then another month .773 and so forth. Is there a way to find out what they really are as a day to day player adjusted OPS? Or is that getting out there on the bizarre walk?


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