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Thread: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

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    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Homer Bailey has just crossed into uncharted waters in terms of innings pitched.
    His previous high was 147 last year. He just hit 152. He has approx 8 starts left, if he makes them all. Will the Reds ease up on him, or will they continue with the machismo crap. I have no doubt that Dusty will continue to "teach" him how to go deep into games.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Homer Bailey has just crossed into uncharted waters in terms of innings pitched.
    His previous high was 147 last year. He just hit 152. He has approx 8 starts left, if he makes them all. Will the Reds ease up on him, or will they continue with the machismo crap. I have no doubt that Dusty will continue to "teach" him how to go deep into games.
    Problem is, Bailey is almost out of options. The Reds have to get this guy ready because heading into next season, I believe he has to make the team out of spring training or be traded or released. So at this juncture, you have to stretch him out and get as much as you can in hopes he's ready for next year.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    I'm sure The Dusty thinks this about The Homer


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygQvB...layer_embedded

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    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    In April this year Verducci red-flagged ten pitchers, none of them Reds:

    This year I red-flagged 10 pitchers -- and the list includes some of the greatest young arms in the game. Here are those pitchers and the innings jumps that put them on the list (innings totals include major, minor and postseason innings; in some cases, the previous pro high occurred in a season other than 2007):

    Player Team Age 2008 Previous High Difference
    1. Jon Lester Red Sox 25 237 153.2 +83.1
    2. Cole Hamels Phillies 25 262.1 183.1 +79
    3. Chad Billingsley Dodgers 24 212.1 160.2 +51.2
    4. Tim Lincecum Giants 24 227 177.1 +49.2
    5. Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 21 171 122 +49
    6. Dana Eveland A's 25 189 140.2 +48.1
    7. Mike Pelfrey Mets 25 200.2 152.2 +48
    8. John Danks White Sox 23 201.2 156 +45.2
    9. Jair Jurrjens Braves 23 188.1 143.1 +45
    10. Jon Niese Mets 22 178 137.1 +40.2

    Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...#ixzz0PARmykME
    This 'year after' effect really ought to have our attention. We have nothing to gain by over-extending Homer this season, why risk it?

    In case you haven't seen this discussed before, what people call the Verducci Effect is defined as a "rule of thumb that pitchers 25 and under are at risk of injury or significant regression in the year after their clubs boost their workload by 30 or more innings." In past seasons, this has turned out to be a very accurate rule of thumb.

    Of course with Homer's stats being what they are, I am not sure regression is much of a risk. If he regresses from where he is now, he won't be playing major league ball....
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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    When he hits 175 they should shut him down.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Problem is, Bailey is almost out of options. The Reds have to get this guy ready because heading into next season, I believe he has to make the team out of spring training or be traded or released. So at this juncture, you have to stretch him out and get as much as you can in hopes he's ready for next year.
    Baloney. As bad as he's been, he's got stuff and is the best option to be the number 4 starter next year. If he pitches 175 Innings this year he'll be sufficiently prepared. The leap in 2010 would allow him to pitch 200 innings and that should be fine. Push him too far this year and sideline him with an arm injury and his options won't matter. Keeping these guys healthy has to be priority number 1.

    This whole "out of options" thing is the most overblown thing in baseball. It might matter for bordeline guys who project as bench players and middle relievers, but Bailey is still the most promising starter in the system with the possible exception of Cueto (and the injured Volquez). The Reds won't lose him over options when the alternatives to put ahead of him include Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Matt Maloney and Ramon Ramirez. Even if the Reds can find a way to add a starter, he's still clearly ahead of those guys and the obvious number 5. If he pitches poorly and needs a break and some time to regroup, he'll hit the DL and go spend time rehabbing in AAA for a while. If 2010 turns out to be another year with no progress, then it may be time to worry about him being out of options. Heck with the injuries this year, Bailey is the number 2 starter right now.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Let's just shut everyone down.

    Then no one would get hurt.

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    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    Let's just shut everyone down.

    Then no one would get hurt.
    Oh, they'd find a way. The Reds always find a way.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Homer needs to gain some confidence. Let him throw and get the experience. It seems like his head is more of an issue than his arm, so if he can build up some momentum going into next year it can only help.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Homer Bailey has just crossed into uncharted waters in terms of innings pitched.
    His previous high was 147 last year. He just hit 152. He has approx 8 starts left, if he makes them all. Will the Reds ease up on him, or will they continue with the machismo crap. I have no doubt that Dusty will continue to "teach" him how to go deep into games.
    Over the next few years, he should enter uncharted waters every year. This isn't much of a big deal, unless Homer starts working late into every game he pitches from now on out. That would be a good thing as well, huh?

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    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    The problem with the Verducci Effect is that IP is almost an absurdly crude way to measure a pitcher's workload, many of the injuries the increased workload is credited to are not even pitching related, and the act of pitching at all tends to cause injuries to pitchers on a reasonably consistent basis in general. That's not to say that I don't buy into the general idea, there seems to be some good reason to believe that younger pitchers aren't physically able to withstand large workload increases, just that using +30 IP or anything that relies on IP to measure a pitcher's workload, and possibly even relying on chronological age, strikes me as likely to be pretty useless.


    Oh, and for the record, Jon Lester's +84 IP is inaccurate, and he appears to be pitching better this season than he ever has before.
    Last edited by blumj; 08-25-2009 at 10:11 AM.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Let him go 180-185 this year and then we are done babying him.

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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    The Reds have nothing to gain by allowing Bailey to start the rest of the year (or bringing Cueto back off the DL). Let Bailey make 2 more starts and then bring up Maloney to finish out the season (or Ramirez).

    Bum

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    Please come again pedro's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    As long as Homer is healthy he has more to gain by pitching than not at this point. This screams to me just another reason for folks on RZ to whine about how stupid the Reds are.
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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring Homer: The Verducci Effect

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Baloney. As bad as he's been, he's got stuff and is the best option to be the number 4 starter next year. If he pitches 175 Innings this year he'll be sufficiently prepared. The leap in 2010 would allow him to pitch 200 innings and that should be fine. Push him too far this year and sideline him with an arm injury and his options won't matter. Keeping these guys healthy has to be priority number 1.

    This whole "out of options" thing is the most overblown thing in baseball. It might matter for bordeline guys who project as bench players and middle relievers, but Bailey is still the most promising starter in the system with the possible exception of Cueto (and the injured Volquez). The Reds won't lose him over options when the alternatives to put ahead of him include Micah Owings, Justin Lehr, Matt Maloney and Ramon Ramirez. Even if the Reds can find a way to add a starter, he's still clearly ahead of those guys and the obvious number 5. If he pitches poorly and needs a break and some time to regroup, he'll hit the DL and go spend time rehabbing in AAA for a while. If 2010 turns out to be another year with no progress, then it may be time to worry about him being out of options. Heck with the injuries this year, Bailey is the number 2 starter right now.
    It's not baloney, it's reality. Having options versus being out of options is a real obstacle teams face with everyone that is not yet established. The Reds will not be able to demote Bailey next year if he does not fare well. So this is the the last chance at the MLB level for him to iron out all of his kinks.

    If 175 innings is acceptable to you, then we really don't have too much of a problem here. He's in line for 7 - maybe 8 more starts. If he averages 6 IP per start, that would put him right in the 185-190 range. So we're really not overshooting the mark very much.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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