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Thread: Stolen Bases

  1. #16
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    If the Reds were smart, they would get a Joe Morgan or an Eric Davis to work with their guys who have some speed and a "chance" to reach base. Dickerson, Stubbs, and their bench guys who might have some speed. Work hard with the minor leaguers coming up. Heck, this might be one of the worst base running franchises in all of baseball. The base-running is worse than pathetic. They need to learn how to get a lead. How to read a pitcher's move. How to get a good secondary lead. Know where the outfielders are playing. Cut the bases without the "Sunday drive" wide turns. Know who has the poor arms that you can take a base on. When you have a franchise that can't go out and sign the stars, you better take a big interest in the minor league system and getting guys to play the game the right way. I know that the "Right Way" label rubs a lot of folks on this board the "Wrong Way," but it is essential for a franchise like the Reds. When you don't always have all the horses, you can't beat yourself as much as they do. The fundamentals are not being taught and stressed nearly enough and they haven't been for a long time. The game is hard enough without playing it stupid.
    While the actually running/technique(s) on the base paths is the responsibility of the runner, our base coaches need to know OF positioning/arm strength/etc in order to maximize base running opportunities.

    I'd say the runners and the coaches are equally to blame.

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  3. #17
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    If the Reds were smart, they would get a Joe Morgan or an Eric Davis to work with their guys who have some speed and a "chance" to reach base. Dickerson, Stubbs, and their bench guys who might have some speed. Work hard with the minor leaguers coming up. Heck, this might be one of the worst base running franchises in all of baseball. The base-running is worse than pathetic. They need to learn how to get a lead. How to read a pitcher's move. How to get a good secondary lead. Know where the outfielders are playing. Cut the bases without the "Sunday drive" wide turns. Know who has the poor arms that you can take a base on. When you have a franchise that can't go out and sign the stars, you better take a big interest in the minor league system and getting guys to play the game the right way. I know that the "Right Way" label rubs a lot of folks on this board the "Wrong Way," but it is essential for a franchise like the Reds. When you don't always have all the horses, you can't beat yourself as much as they do. The fundamentals are not being taught and stressed nearly enough and they haven't been for a long time. The game is hard enough without playing it stupid.
    For my money Barry Larkin was one of the best I have ever seen at this. Its still a shame that he isn't working with the Reds.

  4. #18
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    This year, Willy Taveras is stealing approximately 13.5% of the estimated available bases he could steal. I run this based on the number of steals minus caught stealing and divide by the number of times on base (multiplied by the potential number of times a player could steal second or third). I use a multiplier for each base that accounts for the average number of persons that would be occupying the bases.

    In any event, last year, Taveras was up round 30.5%. So clearly, even taking out of the equation his OBP, when he is on base, he's not stealing nearly at the same pace as he has in the past.
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  5. #19
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    If the Reds were smart, they would get a Joe Morgan or an Eric Davis to work with their guys who have some speed and a "chance" to reach base. Dickerson, Stubbs, and their bench guys who might have some speed. Work hard with the minor leaguers coming up.

    Unless I'm mistaken, both of them were in ST this year and Davis is a roving instructor in the minors. I have no idea if baserunning was on their agendas but I would think it was.
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  6. #20
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    For my money Barry Larkin was one of the best I have ever seen at this. Its still a shame that he isn't working with the Reds.
    No doubt. I echo your sentiments about Larkin. I have always felt that he would be a great coach and teacher. Sometimes, guys like Larkin are just not interested. He certainly would seem to have all the necessary ingredients to be a great instructor. Communication skills would seem to be right at the top of his list.

    When the game starts, the base coaches do have a lot of responsibility, but if the runners are not fundamental in their performance, they can make the base coaches look really bad. Bad base coaches can also make runners look very bad. I have never been a fan of Mark Berry at third base. I am not sure about Hatcher. This coaching staff seems to leave a lot to be desired, but then again, I feel that the best instructors should be in the minor league system. If they are taught correctly when they are coming up, fundamentals shouldn't have to be taught at the big league level. They should be executing and practicing what they have learned on a daily basis.
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  7. #21
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    This year, Willy Taveras is stealing approximately 13.5% of the estimated available bases he could steal. I run this based on the number of steals minus caught stealing and divide by the number of times on base (multiplied by the potential number of times a player could steal second or third). I use a multiplier for each base that accounts for the average number of persons that would be occupying the bases.

    In any event, last year, Taveras was up round 30.5%. So clearly, even taking out of the equation his OBP, when he is on base, he's not stealing nearly at the same pace as he has in the past.
    Thanks for the research Brutus. Taveras has been less than advertised on the base paths this season. I thought the purpose of building a team around speed and defense is to use that speed and defense to make your team better. But when you have the leading SB guy from last season running an average of 13.5% of the time, something seems off.

  8. #22
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Code:
    			GP   AB   PA    OBP  
    B. Phillips 	        115  432  483  .320  
    J. Hairston Jr. 	 86  307  340  .305 
    Laynce Nix 	        104  277  301  .302 
    Jay Bruce 		 83  299  333  .283 
    Willy Taveras 		 98  395  428  .273 
    D. McDonald 		 25   43   47  .255
    C. Dickerson 		 96  253  297  .373
    Most of the players that Jocketty and Baker have chosen with speed donít seem to have a very good ability to get on base to begin with, a limited hitting or walking ability to get on base, to set up RBI opportunity for the following batters. Can they afford the risk of trying to swipe another bag? Dickerson saw limited play.

    Phillips is used as a cleanup batter who struggles against right handed pitching.
    vs. LH 108 .350 .556 .906
    vs. RH 324 .310 .404 .714

    Apparently they ignore a players ability to get on base, and their history of it.

    Looks like to me that Tevaras stole bases at or about his normal numbers.
    Code:
    		GP  SB  OBP
    2005 Hou 	152 34 .325 
    2006 Hou 	149 33 .333 
    2007 Col 	 97 33 .367
    2008 Col 	133 68 .308 
    2009 Cin 	 98 25 .273

  9. #23
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    And that's why station to station ball bores me to tears, but bad base running is even worse for an extended period of time.

    I like Bill James' idea: after two pick-off throws any further throw is a ball on the hitter.

  10. #24
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by RANDY IN CHAR NC View Post
    If the Reds were smart, they would get a Joe Morgan or an Eric Davis to work with their guys who have some speed and a "chance" to reach base. Dickerson, Stubbs, and their bench guys who might have some speed. Work hard with the minor leaguers coming up. Heck, this might be one of the worst base running franchises in all of baseball. The base-running is worse than pathetic. They need to learn how to get a lead. How to read a pitcher's move. How to get a good secondary lead. Know where the outfielders are playing. Cut the bases without the "Sunday drive" wide turns. Know who has the poor arms that you can take a base on. When you have a franchise that can't go out and sign the stars, you better take a big interest in the minor league system and getting guys to play the game the right way. I know that the "Right Way" label rubs a lot of folks on this board the "Wrong Way," but it is essential for a franchise like the Reds. When you don't always have all the horses, you can't beat yourself as much as they do. The fundamentals are not being taught and stressed nearly enough and they haven't been for a long time. The game is hard enough without playing it stupid.
    I'm trying to remember where I read it, but it's been awhile (probably two years, if not longer) ... anyway, I once read a baserunning study that suggested that Scott Rolen was one of the best baserunners in MLB. It may have been a Bill James study, I'm not sure.

    Anyhow, IIRC, the study focused on such things as going first to third on singles hit to the outfield, scoring from 2nd on a single, advancing on fly balls (or sac flies), etc. I wish I remember more specifics than that, but I do remember that Rolen was consistently ranked very high.

    That obviously doesn't help with actual stolen bases, but in terms of overall baserunning itself, Rolen historically has had high value that hopefully a few other Reds are able to pick up on.
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  11. #25
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    I just looked at a Bill James Handbook article from Nov 2008 where he ranked the best and worst baserunners of 2008. Very interesting who was #1.

    The best:

    1. Willy Taveras
    2. Ichiro Suzuki
    3. Matt Holliday
    4. Grady Sizemore
    5. Jimmy Rollins
    6. Nate McLouth
    7. Ian Kinsler
    Randy Winn
    9. Jacoby Ellsbury
    10. Carlos Beltran

    The worst:

    1. Dioner Navarro
    2. Magglio Ordonez
    3. Edgar Gonzalez
    4. Yorvit Torrealba
    5. Yunel Escobar
    6. Mike Lowell
    7. Ramon Hernandez
    Prince Fielder
    Billy Butler
    10. Long List of Guys


    Here's the full article - http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...ll_james_3.php
    Last edited by BRM; 08-26-2009 at 04:01 PM.

  12. #26
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    FWIW, the BP Baserunning Report.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/

    Rolen's data if from both CIN & TOR, so he's not ranked.

    Code:
    #	NAME		GA_OPPS	EQGAR	SB_OPPS	EQSBR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
    1	Willy Taveras	14	 0.9	31	 1.4	40	-0.2	35	 1.0	226	 0.7	346	3.7
    	Scott Rolen	21	-0.6	5	-0.5	43	 1.5	34	 3.0	262	 0.0	365	3.4
    2	Brandon Philli	11	 0.2	29	-1.8	31	 0.5	25	 1.7	224	 1.1	320	1.7
    3	Laynce Nix	9	 0.4	1	-0.2	20	 0.7	13	 0.6	147	-0.3	190	1.1
    4	Wladimir Balen	2	 0.0	0	 0.0	2	 0.0	3	 0.1	30	 0.3	37	0.4
    5	Adam Rosales	11	 0.4	2	-0.7	14	 0.2	10	 0.3	106	 0.1	143	0.3
    6	Jay Bruce	10	-0.5	6	 0.3	22	-0.2	14	 0.3	127	 0.4	179	0.3
    7	Paul Janish	9	-0.3	0	 0.0	9	-0.2	10	 0.3	72	 0.3	100	0.1
    8	Jonny Gomes	9	 0.1	1	 0.1	12	-0.4	10	 0.2	102	-0.1	134	-0.2
    9	Jerry Hairston	15	 1.2	12	-0.6	19	-0.6	19	 0.1	149	-0.6	214	-0.5
    10	Drew Sutton	5	 0.6	2	-1.2	2	 0.0	2	 0.0	19	-0.1	30	-0.7
    11	Joey Votto	18	-0.4	5	 0.3	25	-0.7	26	-0.2	193	 0.0	267	-0.9
    12	Ryan Hanigan	28	 0.5	0	 0.0	19	 0.4	17	-1.6	172	-0.5	236	-1.2
    13	Alex Gonzalez	10	-0.4	1	-0.6	8	 0.1	14	-0.1	102	-0.3	135	-1.4
    14	Chris Dickerson	20	-0.4	17	 0.1	19	-0.7	25	-0.4	181	-0.5	262	-1.9
    15	Edwin Encarnaci	12	 0.0	2	-0.3	13	-2.3	6	 0.1	83	-0.2	116	-2.8
    16	Ramon Hernandez	10	-0.3	1	 0.2	14	 0.1	17	-3.0	133	 0.1	175	-3.0
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #27
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm trying to remember where I read it, but it's been awhile (probably two years, if not longer) ... anyway, I once read a baserunning study that suggested that Scott Rolen was one of the best baserunners in MLB. It may have been a Bill James study, I'm not sure.

    Anyhow, IIRC, the study focused on such things as going first to third on singles hit to the outfield, scoring from 2nd on a single, advancing on fly balls (or sac flies), etc. I wish I remember more specifics than that, but I do remember that Rolen was consistently ranked very high.

    That obviously doesn't help with actual stolen bases, but in terms of overall baserunning itself, Rolen historically has had high value that hopefully a few other Reds are able to pick up on.
    Two years ago Rolen would have been a Cardinal. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was considered one of the best base runners in the game because LaRussa and staff stress that. They are constantly putting players in motion and putting pressure of the defense.

    Rolen last night made a play that really surprised me. He was on 2nd and there was a line drive hit to the RF. I heard GG say Rolen heading back to the bag to tag up. It was shocking because most of the Reds would have just gone half way then headed back when the ball was caught. There is a tremendous amount of value in getting to 3b with less than 2 outs.

    BTW how nice is it to have a 3b who is very good in all aspects of the game.

  14. #28
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Stolen Bases

    My understanding (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong) is that most teams have fairly accurate times on pitcher-to-plate and catcher-to-second -- done either live during previous matchups with a stopwatch or on video.

    If that's true, shouldn't it just be a math question as to whether or not a stolen base gets attempted? If you know the pitcher is X seconds to plate, you know the catcher is X seconds on the throw to second, and you know the runner is X seconds when running 1st to 2nd, shouldn't you be able to fairly accurately predict when a stolen base is in order?

    Having said that, I think the real reason why the Reds don't run is because they don't want to risk the precious few baserunners they do manage to get on.
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