Restoring the Farm System

[nemesis]

We saw alot of forced promotions this year in our Farm system... Some worked out (Klinker, Del Rosario) some didn't (too many to name)...

Alas next year is a new season and alot of the guys on the DL will be back and alot of the fill ins and older fodder will be gone. There will be some interesting decisions to be made and alot of competition for jobs up for grabs...

I had alot of time on my hands and decided to see who fit where and why...

Assuming the Reds make no moves in the offseason which is unlikely. as well as taking in account who is out of options here is what I came up with...

MLB

SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Cueto
SP Bailey
SP Owings

RP Lincoln
RP Burton
RP Herrera
RP Fisher
RP Rhodes
SU Massett
CL Cordero

With Volquez on the DL, the top 4 are set I suspect Owings will be given every shot to win back his spot in the rotation... Bullpen should be pretty much set from the get go... If any contract could be moved in the offseason for Payflex it should be Cordero's...

1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Rolen
SS Janish
LF Gomes
CF Taveras
RF Bruce
C Hernandez

UT Sutton
IF Rosales
OF Dickerson
OF Balentien
C Hanigan

1st thru 3rd is a lock...

Janish will make the team and with no cheap decent FA options at SS a trade maybe the only way they upgrade...

OF will be a clusterfudge of mish mash... Bruce is a lock, Taveras will continue to waste AB's away. Dusty always said no one will lose their job due to injury... His boy Taveras is no exception. Gomes will be resigned and should be. Dickerson will be a platoon partner for him and Taveras. Balentien is out of options and seems to be a nice OF and is improving at the plate here in Cincy. Hernandez should be bought out and resigned and a much more reasonible rate. Hanigan is a solid #2. Rosales and Sutton make it more on their versatilty than thier bat.


AAA

SP Lehr
SP Maloney
SP LeCure
SP Wood
SP Klinker

RP Thompson
RP Ramirez
RP Viola
RP Tabor
RP Valiquette
SU Ondrusek
CL Del Rosario

Lehr should be brought back for his experiance and depth. Maloney, LeCure probaly aren't anything more than add ons on any deal right now so better to keep them for depth. Wood and Klinker are both quality SP with a real possible future in Cincinnati. Thompson's days as a starter should be over same for Ramirez. Viola, Tabor, Valiquette are your left handers, Ondrusek and Del Rosario are your backend guys.

1B Barker
2B Frazier
3B Francisco
SS Valakia
LF Dorn
CF Stubbs
RF Heisey
C Tatum

IF Richar
UT Griffin
IF Bankston
UT Castillo
C Denove

Barker will be keeping 1B warm for Alonso till about June/July. Frazier gets 2B by default, the Francisco experiment at 3B continues... Valakia goes back to SS, Dorn, Heisey and Stubbs man the OF. Tatum and Denove hold down the Catchers spot...

Richar and Griffin take over Bolivar old job, Castillo takes over the super sub role. Bankston provides depth at 1B/3B and OF.


AA

SP Smith
SP Buck
SP Avery
SP Carroll
SP Webb

RP Serrano
RP Smit
RP Krebs
RP Thurman
RP Freeman
SU Watson
CL Lutz

Assuming Smith, Buck, Carroll and Avery are healthy and chances are they all won't be there is a ton of questions in the rotation... Lots of chances for Leake, Fairel, Horst and Partch to move up. I assume at his advances age Serrano will be pushed up the ladder, Thurman should have been in AA a month ago, Krebs is there as is Watson who still has no control... Smit is the swingman, Freeman and Lutz, if healthy, round it out.


1B Alonso
2B Kahaulelio
3B Soto
SS Cozart
LF Henry
CF Sapplett
RF Cumberland
C Mesorasco

UT Parker
IF Eymann
IF Castro
OF Kainer
C Kroski

Alonso mas first until mid summer then Parker takes over by default. Soto gets promoted for lack of depth at 3B and Mesorasco continues his march up the ladder... Sapplett has palyed well enough for a promotion and Henry and Cumberland toil away in AA.


A+


SP Leake
SP Fairel
SP Partch
SP Horst
SP Janke

RP Montano
RP Otterness
RP Hotchkiss
RP Beal
RP Gaffney
SU Gonzalez
CL Joseph

If Alonso started in A+ so will Leake... Fairel, Partch, Horst and possibly Janke will round out the rotation. Montano and Hotchkiss may provide competion for the 5th spot, the losers will be the swingmen. Joseph won't be at A+ long and wouldn't be suprised to see him in AAA by seasons end.


1B Sosa
2B Puckett
3B Mendez
SS Buchholtz
LF Wiley
CF Reed
RF Fellhauser
C Coddington

1B Day
IF Negron
IF Gualdron
OF Phipps
C Bour

Alot of the Dayton guys have had good seasons and will/should be promoted... I would expect to see Fellhauser and Wiley in AA midway thru the season if not AAA by seasons end. I still like Reed as a prospect. He still just 21, OPS over .800 vs LH but cannot hit RH at all. Although he showed improved plate dicipline, less K's more BB's in more AB's.


A

SP Sulbaran
SP Boxberger
SP Ravin
SP Snowden
SP Carson

RP Villreal
RP Walker
RP Bohana
RP Ware
RP Santana
SU Pearl
CL Infante

Sulbaran needs to progress and mature next year and in a big way. Boxberger should overmatch to MWL and move up when Leake does. Ravin was having a good season when injured. Snowden has looked good and should improve and either Walker or Carson will be the 5th starter. Santana, Pearl and Infante all should make a great backend of the bullpen.


1B Richberg
2B Gregorius
3B Kuo
SS Rojas
LF Oliveras
CF Means
RF Brown
C Fleury

1B/P Konstanty
IF Feiner
IF Carlson
OF Contreas
C Weems

Rojas is back for a second tour at SS and at 21 probably not a bad thing... Means needs to develop quickly and Brown will platoon with Contreas and needs to develop power if he wants to stick. Gregorious will play at 2B until Rojas moves up and Kuo 3B until Gregorious moves off 2B. Neither Fluery or Weems can hit LH pitching yet and that might be a problem.



I figured pitchers like Lotzkar, Cline, Johnson, Tuttle, Clarke, Driessen, Chiu, Molina, Rodriguez, Corcino and Panerati will be held back for midseason ball at Billings and guys like Kummet, Crabbe, Braun would be the replacements.

In my rebuild of the system gone from it would be...

C Feiner
OF Ford
RP Baez
RP Atencio
SP Cochran
SP Jurick
IF Bolivar
RP Kennard
RP Ward
SP Gil
RP Kelly
RP Geronimo
SP Vazquez
C Long
RP Davis
RP Pawelek
OF Jones
1B Louwsma
UT Tordi
C Wideman
C McMurray
3B Pfister

So thats it. Something interesting to watch over the offseason and discuss at nausium. Thanks for the read...

[dougdirt]

I read until you started bashing someone for promotion without merit. Unless you are watching them everyday, you can't make that call because you aren't seeing whats going on.

[nemesis]

I wasn't bashing with malice. I know it is a real sensitive subject with you especially when comes to Mesorasco or Stubbs. Nothing personal. For referance I am a season ticket holder for the Dragons for 5 years running... Right behind home plate 1st base side. So I have seen both of them play a few times. Ill edit the post as not to inflame the masses...

[11larkin11]

I am a Mez fan, and I think he should stay in High A, but because of the emergence of Kevin Coddington, I think he gets pushed. Which is in no way a bad thing, but I think without Coddington pushing him, he would have repeated.

[JayBruceFan]

I am a Mez fan, and I think he should stay in High A, but because of the emergence of Kevin Coddington, I think he gets pushed. Which is in no way a bad thing, but I think without Coddington pushing him, he would have repeated.

Coddington was pushing hard until Chase Weems entered the system and STOLE his playing time


(EDIT: I was mistaken, and after checking stats it just seems like Weems is playing a lot over Coddington)

[lollipopcurve]

Nice job, nemesis. Lots to mull over. The one thing that leapt out at me is that I would be very surprised if Miguel Rojas repeats Dayton. I think Gregorius is the SS there next year.

[mace]

Nice job, nemesis. Lots to mull over. The one thing that leapt out at me is that I would be very surprised if Miguel Rojas repeats Dayton. I think Gregorius is the SS there next year.

Hmm, that was the very thing that jumped out at me, too. Also, at this point I don't see Owings having an edge on Lehr for the 5 spot. And it looks like Stubbs is getting a chance to show that he ought to be in CF, and taking pretty good advantage of it.

But that's a very low number of quibbles for such an extensive post. Thanks for organizing it.

[nemesis]

Nice job, nemesis. Lots to mull over. The one thing that leapt out at me is that I would be very surprised if Miguel Rojas repeats Dayton. I think Gregorius is the SS there next year.

I think Rojas should be moved up but I don't see them promoting Buchholtz or moving him off SS to 2B. Then they would block Puckett.

This is where some interesting and creative decisions have to be made. There is no doubt Rojas is an EXCELLENT SS... I have seen him make some plays in the hole and behind 2B you would never expect a SS to get to... His range and first step is GG caliber right now. There is no way his bat plays anywhere else... So what do you do with Buchholtz?

[camisadelgolf]

I think Rojas should be moved up but I don't see them promoting Buchholtz or moving him off SS to 2B. Then they would block Puckett.

This is where some interesting and creative decisions have to be made. There is no doubt Rojas is an EXCELLENT SS... I have seen him make some plays in the hole and behind 2B you would never expect a SS to get to... His range and first step is GG caliber right now. There is no way his bat plays anywhere else... So what do you do with Buchholtz?

I believe Miguel Rojas is eligible for the upcoming rule five draft. Do you think the Reds should protect him?

[nemesis]

I believe Miguel Rojas is eligible for the upcoming rule five draft. Do you think the Reds should protect him?

I wouldn't... No way a team would keep him on a 25 man Roster all year. His bat is 3 or 4 years at least from being MLB ready. Wood, Lecure, Avery, Ondrusek and Denove should be protected IMO. That leaves Rojas, Santana, who I think is a good arm in Dayton, Tordi, Eymann, Feiner, De Jesus, Griffin and Ward should all be left off.

Remove Wells thru FA, One of Nix/Gomes/Taveras thru DFA, Hernandez thru FA, Bray, Miller and McDonald (Non Tender) Outright Lehr, Barker, Richar, Castillo back to AAA and Keep Volquez on the 60 Day DL. That should open enough spots for those 5 and Lincoln and one or 2 FA's...

[redsmetz]

I wouldn't... No way a team would keep him on a 25 man Roster all year. His bat is 3 or 4 years at least from being MLB ready. Wood, Lecure, Avery, Ondrusek and Denove should be protected IMO. That leaves Rojas, Santana, who I think is a good arm in Dayton, Tordi, Eymann, Feiner, De Jesus, Griffin and Ward should all be left off.

Remove Wells thru FA, One of Nix/Gomes/Taveras thru DFA, Hernandez thru FA, Bray, Miller and McDonald (Non Tender) Outright Lehr, Barker, Richar, Castillo back to AAA and Keep Volquez on the 60 Day DL. That should open enough spots for those 5 and Lincoln and one or 2 FA's...

Everyone has to come off the 60 day DL by the time of the Rule 5 draft, so Volquez will have to be on the 40 man at that time.

[mace]

I think Rojas should be moved up but I don't see them promoting Buchholtz or moving him off SS to 2B. Then they would block Puckett.

This is where some interesting and creative decisions have to be made. There is no doubt Rojas is an EXCELLENT SS... I have seen him make some plays in the hole and behind 2B you would never expect a SS to get to... His range and first step is GG caliber right now. There is no way his bat plays anywhere else... So what do you do with Buchholtz?

From what I've seen, Buchholz has played a lot more 2B than SS this year.

[nemesis]

From what I've seen, Buchholz has played a lot more 2B than SS this year.

Been about 60/40 2B on the year... alot more 2B since he returned from the DL. So you may be right... But it could go either way... Someone is going to get blocked... Rojas, Puckett or Mendez (if they shift Puckett to 3rd)... Unless they promote Buchholtz which is unlikely.

[medford]

interesting read, I won't be the least bit surprised to see Yorman start out w/ the Dragons next year. Possibly even Duran and/or Hamilton depending on what they show in spring training/winter ball (Don't know if Hamilton would play there or not).

Right, wrong or indifferent, my guess is they want to see them get a full season of competition vs half a season + extended spring training/instructional league. I doubt either Duran or Hamilton are ready, but it seems that Yorman could be up for the challenge, but perhaps they'd like to see Duran move along with him if possible, kind of a natural in-house competition for who can out-do the other. I expect to see Means up in A+ next year.

[Mario-Rijo]

Interesting list but I wouldn't count out Bill Bray. I know a lot are down on him but I think he's much more likely to fill out the pen than Lincoln. Even though Lincoln is still owed money.