Jose Reyes Should Be Traded: Stark

[TheNext44]

Hate to be Debbie Downer, but I'm betting big that Paul Janish will be the Reds starting SS opening day 2010.

I think the Reds believe he will be above replacement value, and since that is all he is costing, worth it.

[redsfandan]

At that point, they could theoretically trade Reyes for someone else to build around (ideally a catcher). ...

After 2011 Reyes will be a free agent so he can't be traded then. Do you suggest that a team trade for him and then turn around and trade him only one year later?

... What if Yonder Alonso becomes the type of player you build around? You'd need to deal either he or Joey Votto anyway, and Votto is going to potentially be too expensive in 2011 when he's getting a significant pay raise.

There's still the chance that either Alonso or Votto is traded eventually but trading Votto after only one more season would surprise me even though a case could be made that it's the smarter way to go.

[redsfandan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...e=MLBHeadlines



Don't know what it would take to get him, but if he's healthy, very few untouchables in the Reds organization in my mind.

There's a decent chance that the Mets would actually want to include Harang, and maybe Arroyo. That would help on the payroll side for the first year.

As stated by Tom Servo and redsfandan, the obvious package starts with Alonso and Arroyo, but will probably end up including Harang instead of Arroyo. Janish will probably also be needed since I don't see an in house replacement for Reyes in the Mets system.

Hate to be Debbie Downer, but I'm betting big that Paul Janish will be the Reds starting SS opening day 2010.

I think the Reds believe he will be above replacement value, and since that is all he is costing, worth it.

Ya know, it almost sounds like you did a 180 on us.

[BRM]

Hate to be Debbie Downer, but I'm betting big that Paul Janish will be the Reds starting SS opening day 2010.

I think the Reds believe he will be above replacement value, and since that is all he is costing, worth it.

There is very little doubt in my mind about it. Janish will be the SS next year. I hope I get pleasantly surprised but I'm betting on it being Janish as well.

[gm]

didn't gomes play some 1b? Maybe he can compete for votto's spot too

Gomes was tried at 1b for a few innings during spring training, up to that point he said he had no previous experience at the position

and when Votto was out this spring Dusty played his starting catcher at 1b

[redsfandan]

Todd Frazier has a little more experience at 1st so, if he can make the jump, he seems like the logical choice to backup Votto.

[kaldaniels]

They could? A top 25 prospect, a 200 IP league average pitcher, plus 2 backup outfielders (one with excellent defense and baserunning skills) for Reyes (whom obviously has the hamstring issue) would easily be topped by another team? I highly doubt that.

Alonso has great value. It seemed the Reds could not give Arroyo away this year. Plus you add 2 outfielders who have never been a high rated prospect nor have they been in the bigs even. I guess it all depends on your perspective...I think it could be beat by another team sending the Mets 2 high quality prospects plus a throw-in or 2 myself.

[redsfandan]

A couple things to keep in mind are the financial situation that the Mets are in (as was touched on by NJReds) and the fact that stars aren't bringing the same return (in prospects) that they did just a few years ago.

[Brutus]

A couple things to keep in mind are the financial situation that the Mets are in (as was touched on by NJReds) and the fact that stars aren't bringing the same return (in prospects) that they did just a few years ago.

And I've honestly felt the Mets' organization was vastly overrated in terms of young talent. Reyes and Wright have been studs. No doubt. But a very low rate of their prospects have done anything on the major league level. I look at Alex Escobar, Mike Pelfrey, (so far) Fernando Martinez, and right on down the line. I just don't see many of their guys producing as was hyped.

[TheNext44]

Ya know, it almost sounds like you did a 180 on us.

First two posts, fun, hypothetical posturing about a fantasy.
Third post, back to reality.

[redsfandan]

Boston seems like a fit to me. What do ya think?

[RedEye]

Who's the PTBNL?

I've never understood how you can put a PTBNL into an imaginary deal.

PTBNL = a mid-tier minor leaguer with some value

I don't know the Mets farm system well enough to pick a name. I would just imagine that the Reds would need a little more value back in return if they gave up the three names I've listed (Arroyo, Alonso, Wood) for two years of Reyes at SS.

[buckeyenut]

I would trade Alonso, Wood, Heisley and one other B-C level prospect for Reyes. If NYY is dealing him, I think they have to be rebuilding, not bringing in someone like Arroyo.

[fearofpopvol1]

i would be SHOCKED if the mets traded reyes. i really doubt it happens.

[mth123]

The hamstring issue with Reyes is significant. The risk of reinjury is probably high (Freel and Griffey had chronic hamstring problems, to cite two examples). For a guy who uses explosive speed a lot (he attempts lots of steals), Reyes is probably at higher risk for reinjury than most.

Health is a major factor in this case. Any team trying to deal for Reyes will have that as leverage, alongside the fact he's a short-timer. I think the Mets will have a hard time getting a ton of service time in return for him, especially in that players who bring that are also cheap, while Reyes is pretty costly. I just don't see the Mets getting equal value for the guy, if you're looking at him being as productive as he has been.

Absolutely right. I don't know the details of Reyes injury, but if he's having the Griffey surgery its likely that his skill level will have changed dramatically. If he can't move around well (remember how hard it was for griffey to get started and really wasn't moving until he built up a head of steam?) I'm guessing the quick burst needed to play SS or steal bases will be a thing of the past. If he is really having the Griffey surgery, I wouldn't give much for him. I'd give 'em Willy and Lincoln and give Reyes a shot in LF. Even if the surgery technique has improved and will result in less of a skill reduction than what happened with Griffey, its likely to take a year or two until he's back to full strength and by then his contract will be up and he'll be gone.