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Thread: Reds outfield -- 2010

  1. #46
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Gomes has 74 Ks in 221 official at bats. That's a rate of one K per three official at bats. Around 25 percent is high, but probably acceptable for a power hitter. One-third is high.

    There's nothing wrong with a high strikeout hitter if he consistently produces in his non-strikeout at bats. But it does mean that one third of the time (excluding walks) Gomes doesn't even get a fair ball in play.

    The question is how this high strikeout, low contact rate plays out over 500 at bats. If the Reds were to upgrade shortstop and catcher offensively, I'd be willing to take a shot with Gomes as the regular left fielder. But if they plan to go with Janish and Hanigan, I think the Reds would need an even better hitter than Gomes in left. With Jonny in reserve, perhaps.

    I like Gomes, his attitude, his power, but I just wonder if this poor offense would get any major boost simply by giving Jonny the starting job next year.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-05-2009 at 01:34 PM.

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  3. #47
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Agree, KC, the K's are a problem. Still it seems to me there's no better way of getting at this than OPS. And I don't think it's even remotely acceptable to go with Hanigan/Janish. I'd like two other starters at those spots ideally, then a Gomes/Dickerson platoon in left.

  4. #48
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    LF - Dickerson/Gomes
    CF - Stubbs
    RF - Bruce/Kapler

    Don't buy Balentian or Gomes vs. RH. Too many times the Reds make these long-term projections from one-year/small samples. Stubbs is ready in CF, he's showing pop he never did in the minors because people are pitching to him not around him. That would change if he didn't bat in front of Janish all the time. Then you'd see more walks because he has good plate discipline.

    We can't keep trotting Bruce out there against LHP, even if he is "the franchise." He's worse than Taveras, so I'd like to see an outside RH brought in. Kapler is the pick, but there's others (Baldelli?). Balentien doesn't work because he hits RHP better than LHP and I don't think Heisey's ready.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 09-05-2009 at 01:55 PM.

  5. #49
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    LF - Dickerson/Gomes
    CF - Stubbs
    RF - Bruce/Kapler

    Don't buy Balentian or Gomes vs. RH. Too many times the Reds make these long-term projections from one-year/small samples. Stubbs is ready in CF, he's showing pop he never did in the minors because people are pitching to him not around him. That would change if he didn't bat in front of Janish all the time. Then you'd see more walks because he has good plate discipline.
    You're way off on this one. Balentien has hit better against RHP than LHP for his entire career, even in the minor leagues. Of all the outfielders mentioned in this thread, Chris Dickerson might have the biggest need for a platoon partner.

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    We can't keep trotting Bruce out there against LHP, even if he is "the franchise." He's worse than Taveras, so I'd like to see an outside RH brought in. Kapler is the pick, but there's others (Baldelli?). Balentien doesn't work because he hits RHP better than LHP and I don't think Heisey's ready.
    You're ready to give up on Bruce versus LHP already?

  6. #50
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    You're ready to give up on Bruce versus LHP already?
    Why is it that suggestions of platooning Bruce in 2010 are equated with "give up on Bruce versus LHP" by so many? Is it possible that the team needs to take a high potential young player who had horrific struggles in a certain area out of that situation so that he can be put in favorable spots where he can build on some success?

    There was a time when that was how young players were brought along. Bruce is still young no? If Bruce is who we think he is, he'll win the job soon enough. Force feeding him seems like a bad plan for both the player and the team.
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  7. #51
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Gomes has 74 Ks in 221 official at bats. That's a rate of one K per three official at bats. Around 25 percent is high, but probably acceptable for a power hitter. One-third is high.

    .

    Anyone in the mood for a good old fashion "k's aren't the boogie man, yes they are" thread?
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  8. #52
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    It seems simple to me. Bruce is our RF, Stubbs is our CF...they are the future of our outfield. They may not produce at the plate as well as some people would like, but they will only learn by facing Major League pitchers every day. Their defense and speed never slumps...the two of them are a pitchers dream. So left field is our only dilemma, and then we need to pick our 4th and 5th outfielders. If we could afford another big bat, left field would be my choice as best place to spend the money. Since we've been told the Reds won't be dealing in the FA market this off-season I'll go with Gomes here...he's the only one with enough bat. On this defense oriented team, we absolutely must make up for any lack of hitting up the middle by selecting the best hitters possible in the corners. Gomes is still not enough, and he's definitely not what I'd call 'established', but he's the best we've got on our budget. I fear pitchers will eat him alive once he gets their attention. The only other feasible option, IMHO, is Votto in LF and Alonso at 1st base. That may be the future, but I don't think Alonso has proven himself ready yet...the odds are Gomes will flop and force this move around mid-season next year anyway.
    My 4th and 5th outfielders would be Dickerson and Balentien. Ideally Balentien would be in AAA playing every day to develop, but such is the lot in life of guys who mature late...he has no options, his best use is as a 4th or 5th outfielder.
    Heisey should stay in AAA and play every day. If he knocks down the door then we've got a nice trade decision to make, eh?
    Nix will not be re-signed. Taveras should be sho...er, let go. It all seems self evident to me.

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  9. #53
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion View Post
    It seems simple to me. Bruce is our RF, Stubbs is our CF...they are the future of our outfield. They may not produce at the plate as well as some people would like, but they will only learn by facing Major League pitchers every day. Their defense and speed never slumps...the two of them are a pitchers dream. So left field is our only dilemma, and then we need to pick our 4th and 5th outfielders. If we could afford another big bat, left field would be my choice as best place to spend the money. Since we've been told the Reds won't be dealing in the FA market this off-season I'll go with Gomes here...he's the only one with enough bat. On this defense oriented team, we absolutely must make up for any lack of hitting up the middle by selecting the best hitters possible in the corners. Gomes is still not enough, and he's definitely not what I'd call 'established', but he's the best we've got on our budget. I fear pitchers will eat him alive once he gets their attention. The only other feasible option, IMHO, is Votto in LF and Alonso at 1st base. That may be the future, but I don't think Alonso has proven himself ready yet...the odds are Gomes will flop and force this move around mid-season next year anyway.
    My 4th and 5th outfielders would be Dickerson and Balentien. Ideally Balentien would be in AAA playing every day to develop, but such is the lot in life of guys who mature late...he has no options, his best use is as a 4th or 5th outfielder.
    Heisey should stay in AAA and play every day. If he knocks down the door then we've got a nice trade decision to make, eh?
    Nix will not be re-signed. Taveras should be sho...er, let go. It all seems self evident to me.

    So, other than draft position, what makes Stubbs better than Dickerson against RHP?

    1. Size and Strength? Gotta go Dickerson at 6-3 230 vs Stubbs lanky 6-4, 205.
    2. Speed? Its a wash IMO.
    3. Defense? I'll give Stubbs the nod there but not by enough to give-up offense. He looks like the second coming of Joe Dimaggio in CF with his effortless defensive play, but his defense is not light years better than Dickerson's IMO and that's what it would need to be to put up with a .700ish OPS against RH when a high .700s type who can get on base and handle the position is already on hand. "Better than Taveras" doesn't automatically make anyone actually good.
    4. Minor League Results? When Stubbs puts up an .863 OPS in AAA like Dickerson did last year, I'll think he has a chance. Heck when he puts up a .750 you can wake me up and I'll think he's had enough success there to even think about a job as a major league regular one day. Right now he's not really even earned a spot on the team IMO, but he's the best in house option against lefties. When his bat screams that he needs to play more then let him. Until then, he plays against LHP simply because we know that Dickerson's lot in life says he can't.

    As for Bruce, when he puts up a .900+ OPS against the righties for an extended period, then he can start working in against the lefties. 2009 was proof he needs to get it together first. Now 2010 means he needs to prove that he can.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-05-2009 at 06:44 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #54
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post

    There was a time when that was how young players were brought along. Bruce is still young no? If Bruce is who we think he is, he'll win the job soon enough. Force feeding him seems like a bad plan for both the player and the team.
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Anyone in the mood for a good old fashion "k's aren't the boogie man, yes they are" thread?
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Sign Gabe Kapler, Joe Beimel, and John Lackey.

    Win World Series.

    Profit.
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Gomes has 74 Ks in 221 official at bats. That's a rate of one K per three official at bats. Around 25 percent is high, but probably acceptable for a power hitter. One-third is high.

    There's nothing wrong with a high strikeout hitter if he consistently produces in his non-strikeout at bats. But it does mean that one third of the time (excluding walks) Gomes doesn't even get a fair ball in play.

    The question is how this high strikeout, low contact rate plays out over 500 at bats. If the Reds were to upgrade shortstop and catcher offensively, I'd be willing to take a shot with Gomes as the regular left fielder. But if they plan to go with Janish and Hanigan, I think the Reds would need an even better hitter than Gomes in left. With Jonny in reserve, perhaps.

    I like Gomes, his attitude, his power, but I just wonder if this poor offense would get any major boost simply by giving Jonny the starting job next year.
    If he keeps this high an isolated power, absolutely he's worth playing every day. The strikeouts hurt, but he has maintained no worse than a league-average walk-rate for his career and is currently ripping the cover off the ball when he does put it in play. His low average and OBP are all strikeout-driven. So from that standpoint, the fewer balls in play hurt. But he could withstand another 30-40 points drop in ISO and still be justified playing every day.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    So, other than draft position, what makes Stubbs better than Dickerson against RHP?

    1. Size and Strength? Gotta go Dickerson at 6-3 230 vs Stubbs lanky 6-4, 205.
    2. Speed? Its a wash IMO.
    3. Defense? I'll give Stubbs the nod there but not by enough to give-up offense. He looks like the second coming of Joe Dimaggio in CF with his effortless defensive play, but his defense is not light years better than Dickerson's IMO and that's what it would need to be to put up with a .700ish OPS against RH when a high .700s type who can get on base and handle the position is already on hand. "Better than Taveras" doesn't automatically make anyone actually good.
    4. Minor League Results? When Stubbs puts up an .863 OPS in AAA like Dickerson did last year, I'll think he has a chance. Heck when he puts up a .750 you can wake me up and I'll think he's had enough success there to even think about a job as a major league regular one day. Right now he's not really even earned a spot on the team IMO, but he's the best in house option against lefties. When his bat screams that he needs to play more then let him. Until then, he plays against LHP simply because we know that Dickerson's lot in life says he can't.

    As for Bruce, when he puts up a .900+ OPS against the righties for an extended period, then he can start working in against the lefties. 2009 was proof he needs to get it together first. Now 2010 means he needs to prove that he can.
    Dickerson is 27, IMO this is his ceiling. Stubbs is 24, he has yet to reach his ceiling. Granted, Stubbs has arrived before he should have...ideally, he would have had to earn a promotion by raking in AAA, but he was called early through necessity. Stubbs will not develop if he's carried as a 4th or 5th outfielder, if he doesn't start he should go back to AAA to play every day. That leaves us with the fragile Dickerson starting in CF and Taveras as his only backup. Don't get me wrong, I like Dickerson...as a 4th oufielder, I think he'd be one of the best in the league. When he plays, you're not giving up much. Stubbs is already a better defender and a better base stealer, if he can polish his plate discipline, (and plate discipline against Major League pitching can only be developed in the Major Leagues,) he'll be the perfect leadoff hitter. Power is just a bonus in a leadoff hitter, but I agree Dickerson has more potential power. In fact, if Dickerson ever displayed the power of a 6 foot 3 inch, 230 pound athlete, he'd be our LEFT FIELDER. That's why I like him as the 4th outfielder, he can play all 3 outfield positions and he's above replacement level in each of them and if he breaks out he can replace Gomes.
    I use the same logic for Jay Bruce. He won't learn to hit Major League pitching in AAA or on the bench. He must play every day if you want him to develop. If you just want to win today's game, then sure play the guy who has performed the best in the past; But if you want to develop your superstars and build a champion, you play the guys who have the potential to bring you that ring until they realize their potential or flop. IMHO, neither one of these guys could be called a flop yet.

    BTW, Stubbs OPS in AAA last year (3 years younger than Dickerson at the same level) was .834. Dickerson's .862 was almost 100 points higher than he has ever posted in his 7 years in the minors. Their lifetime minor league OPSes are Dickerson - .776; Stubbs - .765 IMO, that doesn't outweigh the superior defense and base stealing added to Stubbs potential to develop.

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  15. #59
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion View Post
    Dickerson is 27, IMO this is his ceiling. Stubbs is 24, he has yet to reach his ceiling. Granted, Stubbs has arrived before he should have...ideally, he would have had to earn a promotion by raking in AAA, but he was called early through necessity. Stubbs will not develop if he's carried as a 4th or 5th outfielder, if he doesn't start he should go back to AAA to play every day. That leaves us with the fragile Dickerson starting in CF and Taveras as his only backup. Don't get me wrong, I like Dickerson...as a 4th oufielder, I think he'd be one of the best in the league. When he plays, you're not giving up much. Stubbs is already a better defender and a better base stealer, if he can polish his plate discipline, (and plate discipline against Major League pitching can only be developed in the Major Leagues,) he'll be the perfect leadoff hitter. Power is just a bonus in a leadoff hitter, but I agree Dickerson has more potential power. In fact, if Dickerson ever displayed the power of a 6 foot 3 inch, 230 pound athlete, he'd be our LEFT FIELDER. That's why I like him as the 4th outfielder, he can play all 3 outfield positions and he's above replacement level in each of them and if he breaks out he can replace Gomes.
    I use the same logic for Jay Bruce. He won't learn to hit Major League pitching in AAA or on the bench. He must play every day if you want him to develop. If you just want to win today's game, then sure play the guy who has performed the best in the past; But if you want to develop your superstars and build a champion, you play the guys who have the potential to bring you that ring until they realize their potential or flop. IMHO, neither one of these guys could be called a flop yet.

    BTW, Stubbs OPS in AAA last year (3 years younger than Dickerson at the same level) was .834. Dickerson's .862 was almost 100 points higher than he has ever posted in his 7 years in the minors. Their lifetime minor league OPSes are Dickerson - .776; Stubbs - .765 IMO, that doesn't outweigh the superior defense and base stealing added to Stubbs potential to develop.

    Stubbs .834 was in 75 late season AB for Louisville and he followed that up with a .713 in his season there as a regular. I think that foreshadows the type of drop we'll see from him if he's a regular in Cincy next year. In a late season call-up he's putting up an OPS of .775 or so and I think a season as the regular in 2010 will see him struggling to OPS .600. I agree that he's up too soon and needs another year in AAA where he rakes. I also agree that I'd still rather he be the guy than to watch Taveras ever don a Red's uniform again.

    Dickerson is, as you say, past the point of developing and we pretty much know he's a guy who can put up a .765 to .825 OPS against RHP and he has more than enough defense to handle CF. He won't be a regular and despite his size, won't put up enough power to be of use in a corner. If he plays CF against RHP, on those days the team will have an average to above average player out there with both the bat and the glove. Maybe the Reds should just keep a journeyman around to be the RH half while Stubbs goes back to AAA for more development. Heck, though I fear this may bring down the entire wrath of Redszone upon me, I'd be OK with McDonald as that guy provided that is his only role and its simply to buy time for Stubbs or Heisey to get to raking to the point where they'd deserve a shot.

    Where I disagree most with many on this board is the idea of only being able to learn in the big leagues by failing to the point of hopelessness. I agree that its true to some extent with young starting pitchers (who need about a season worth of taking their lumps before worrying too much about the stats), but young players in general, IMO, should be put in positions where they can succeed. Bruce has had over a full season as a regular player and has shown a real problem hitting lefty pitching. I think its carrying over to the point where his typical AB ends with a K or a harmless, lazy fly ball. Its time to let this kid rack-up some time in spots where he has the most probablilty to succeed. Of course he'll need to be in there against LHP eventually, but he's nothing special against RHP either at this point while being sub-Taveras like against LHP. A platoon is in order, at least for a while. When he's back to raking routinely against RHP, then its time to try a regular role.

    Because they are lefty bats, Dickerson and Bruce are clearly the best choices to start in CF and RF most of the time. I don't think its in the best interest of the team or either player to be in there against LHP at this point (Dickerson never will be at that point IMO). Stubbs simply needs to show he can hit higher level pitching over an extended period before he should be bequeathed a role as a regular in the major leagues.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Reds outfield -- 2010

    mth,
    If we can only carry 5 of the 7 OF we now have, and I'm not counting Taveras--Bruce, Stubbs, Dickerson, Gomes, Nix, Balentien, McDonald--which two do we drop?


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