Prospect for Prospect?

[mth123]

Deals of top prospects for each other to fill positional holes in a system don't happen very often, but I wonder if the Reds are in a situation where a deal or two like that should be pursued. The Reds have a seeming glut in 1B/3B/CF/LF types and could use a high ceiling arm or two and some help at SS and C. Unfortunately, the Reds also have a budget that is maxed out so dealing these guys for major league players who make much more than the minimum wouldn't seem possible. So, given the needs and excesses of the organization, I thought we could have a little fun (and maybe learn a little bit) by proposing and critiquing some prospect for prospect deals that may even sound realistic (though highly doubtful any would actually occur). Try to justify any prosposed deals. I'll start out with a prospect for prospect proposal:

Yonder Alonso to SF for Madison Bumgarner: This deal may fit the needs of both teams. The Giants with Lincecum and Cain on top of the rotation, Barry Zito locked up and going no where for a long time and Jonathon Sanchez being much more than solid might be able to afford giving up an high ceiling arm for an affordable bat. Add that a cloud of a murder trial now hangs over Angel Villalona the SF 1B of the future and top offensive prospect and the Giants may be open to it. From the Reds standpoint, they will need replacements for Arroyo and Harang while Alonso is blocked by Votto with only Votto making a move to LF to join an already crowded situation with Heisey, Francisco, and maybe Frazier as a possibility. If the Giants want a kicker to provide some rotation depth, the Reds should be happy to include a Klinker, Horst, Owings, Lecure or even Maloney. Adding Wood would be OK if the Giants kick in a lesser prospect or a cheap player (Manny Burris as a SS alternative may be interesting).

Thoughts? Anyone with a prospect for prospect deal to add to this.

[dougdirt]

I will keep Alonso over Bumgarner. Bumgarner saw his velocity at 90-92 this year and still doesn't have any offspeed pitches that are even average. Excellent control and being a lefty go a long way in the low minors. His strikeout rate fell off the map when he reached AA.

[Mario-Rijo]

I like your thinking on the subject Mth, excellent matchup of teams if there was one. I don't know if I could do that well but i'll try to find a solid one.

Hmm, coming up empty at the moment. I was thinking (SS's) Wilmer Flores, Starlin Castro & Robinson Tejada for something but nothing other than Yorman or Soto comes to mind and I don't think they are a match either one way or the other. Maybe something will come to mind later.

[mth123]

I will keep Alonso over Bumgarner. Bumgarner saw his velocity at 90-92 this year and still doesn't have any offspeed pitches that are even average. Excellent control and being a lefty go a long way in the low minors. His strikeout rate fell off the map when he reached AA.

Before 09, BA had Bumgarner as the top prospect in SF (ahead of Posey) and the pitcher in their system with the best fastball and the best control. I'd take him and at worst could probably flip him for more than Alonso could bring. His K rate did drop in AA, but he still had a pretty darn good season and even looked good in his 10 Major League innings. He'd be the unquestioned top prospect in the organization if the Reds got him while BA puts Alonso behind a tweener who hasn't got a position. Gotta like a 6-4, 215 pound lefty with TOR potential.

[Mario-Rijo]

Before 09, BA had Bumgarner as the top prospect in SF (ahead of Posey) and the pitcher in their system with the best fastball and the best control. I'd take him and at worst could probably flip him for more than Alonso could bring. His K rate did drop in AA, but he still had a pretty darn good season and even looked good in his 10 Major League innings. He'd be the unquestioned top prospect in the organization if the Reds got him while BA puts Alonso behind a tweener who hasn't got a position. Gotta like a 6-4, 215 pound lefty with TOR potential.

Goodness Mth, must you always throw this into the discussion? I think we can both agree that BA doesn't view him as a Tweener so therefore they aren't ranking him behind someone they view as flawed as you do. That said I agree Bumgarner would quickly be our #1 prospect in any case.

[mth123]

Goodness Mth, must you always throw this into the discussion? I think we can both agree that BA doesn't view him as a Tweener so therefore they aren't ranking him behind someone they view as flawed as you do. That said I agree Bumgarner would quickly be our #1 prospect in any case.

I guess I just interpret Alonso falling behind Frazier as an indication that his stock is dropping.

[dougdirt]

Before 09, BA had Bumgarner as the top prospect in SF (ahead of Posey) and the pitcher in their system with the best fastball and the best control. I'd take him and at worst could probably flip him for more than Alonso could bring. His K rate did drop in AA, but he still had a pretty darn good season and even looked good in his 10 Major League innings. He'd be the unquestioned top prospect in the organization if the Reds got him while BA puts Alonso behind a tweener who hasn't got a position. Gotta like a 6-4, 215 pound lefty with TOR potential.

Yonder Alonso is a better prospect than Madison Bumgarner is. The kid has 1 pitch and its a 90-92 MPH fastball. Projection? Sure, I guess so if you like size. But his offspeed pitches have not improved in 2 years now.

A few things also, lets see where Alonso and Frazier rate overall in BA's Top 100, BP's Top 100, Sickels Top 100..... JJ Cooper seems to like Frazier more than Alonso. I get the feeling he is alone on that one among that one. Frazier isn't a tweener. Where you keep getting that from is absolutely mind boggling. Because a guy is moved around doesn't make him a tweener. A tweener is a guy who might not hit enough to play every day. Frazier in no way, shape or form is that guy.

[mth123]

A tweener is a guy who doesn't hit enough at a corner spot and doesn't field well enough to play up the middle. Sounds like Frazier unless he can play 3B.

[dougdirt]

A tweener is a guy who doesn't hit enough at a corner spot and doesn't field well enough to play up the middle. Sounds like Frazier unless he can play 3B.

Frazier projects to be an .825-.850 OPS bat in the majors. That plays at every spot on the diamond and is only below average at 1B. Sounds like you just don't know what spots on the field actually hit like.

[mth123]

Frazier projects to be an .825-.850 OPS bat in the majors. That plays at every spot on the diamond and is only below average at 1B. Sounds like you just don't know what spots on the field actually hit like.

I guess we disagree on the projection. If he's .825 to .850 he's good most places and passable at all of them (though good teams need a couple .900 OPS guys and if he's taking up a corner at .825 it makes it harder to get somewhere else). My expectations are more in the .760 to .820 range with over .800 only in a few good high BABIP years. That's a great guy to have as a 400 PA supersub.

[dougdirt]

I guess we disagree on the projection. If he's .825 to .850 he's good most places and passable at all of them (though good teams need a couple .900 OPS guys and if he's taking up a corner at .825 it makes it harder to get somewhere else). My expectations are more in the .760 to .820 range with over .800 only in a few good high BABIP years. That's a great guy to have as a 400 PA supersub.

Have you looked at his peripherals? Here is what he looks like with a 9% walk rate and a 15% K rate.

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SF	SH	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
625	555	156	40	2	22	57	94	5	5	3	.281	.350	.479	.301

That seems like a fair projection based on what he has done and what scouts believe his power looks like. Where is my projection wrong from above that you strongly disagree with to get him into that sub .800 OPS range that you see?

[mth123]

Have you looked at his peripherals? Here is what he looks like with a 9% walk rate and a 15% K rate.

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SF	SH	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
625	555	156	40	2	22	57	94	5	5	3	.281	.350	.479	.301

That seems like a fair projection based on what he has done and what scouts believe his power looks like. Where is my projection wrong from above that you strongly disagree with to get him into that sub .800 OPS range that you see?

His high OPS days were when he was at low A and Billings as a three year college player beating up on guys he was more advanced than. In 2009 he was at an 8.4% walk rate (48 walks in 569 PAs) with an OPS of about .830. I don't expect his numbers to get better as he goes up. I just think something in the .775 range is a reasonable expectation. Lots of guys OPS in the low .800s in AA and do much less at the big league level. I don't really expect any player to maintain his AA OPS when he reaches the big leagues.

[dougdirt]

His high OPS days were when he was at low A and Billings as a three year college player beating up on guys he was more advanced than. In 2009 he was at an 8.4% walk rate (48 walks in 569 PAs) with an OPS of about .830. I don't expect his numbers to get better as he goes up. I just think something in the .775 range is a reasonable expectation. Lots of guys OPS in the low .800s in AA and do much less at the big league level. I don't really expect any player to maintain his AA OPS when he reaches the big leagues.

So you expect his walk rate to be at what range? We the rest of my numbers right? If so, then for him to be in the .775 range he would have to walk about 28 times in 625 plate appearances, or 4.5% of the time. Assuming that the walk rate was the only issue you had with my numbers.

[mth123]

So you expect his walk rate to be at what range? We the rest of my numbers right? If so, then for him to be in the .775 range he would have to walk about 28 times in 625 plate appearances, or 4.5% of the time. Assuming that the walk rate was the only issue you had with my numbers.

Its not just the walk rate. I don't expect any player to maintain his OBP or his Slugging % in the major leagues that he had in the minors. Chris Dickerson put up an OPS of .863 his last year at AAA, but it would be foolish to expect much more than .750 from him. Adam Rosales went .881 in A+, .926 in AA, and .802 in AAA his first year followed by 1.004 in his partial season this year, yet the consensus is that he can't hit. Why is it reasonable to expect Frazier to duplicate his .830 from AA at the big league level? I think planning for a 50 point or so drop-off is pretty reasonable and happens more often than not.

[dougdirt]

Its not just the walk rate. I don't expect any player to maintain his OBP or his Slugging % in the major leagues that he had in the minors. Chris Dickerson put up an OPS of .863 his last year at AAA, but it would be foolish to expect much more than .750 from him. Adam Rosales went .881 in A+, .926 in AA, and .802 in AAA his first year followed by 1.004 in his partial season this year, yet the consensus is that he can't hit. Why is it reasonable to expect Frazier to duplicate his .830 from AA at the big league level? I think planning for a 50 point or so drop-off is pretty reasonable and happens more often than not.

I could really care less about what his OPS was at AA. I am looking at his skillset to project his numbers. Run the numbers for what you think he will do in his PA, AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, K, HBP, SH, SF and BABIP and then see what his numbers look like. The biggest things are walks, strikeouts and his power in determining his line assuming you give him a .300 BABIP. Run through that scenario for yourself with what you think Todd will do. I think you will find it difficult for him to wind up in the range you say he will if you are honest with the numbers.