Individual talent was there at Fifth Third Field (DDN article)

[camisadelgolf]

So do you think Katz will complain about the talent on the Dragons again this season? I think they're looking fairly strong for 2010--especially when it comes to the starting pitching.

POS AGE* NAME
  C 21.9 Mark Fleury
 1B 24.3 Chris Richburg
 2B 21.4 Yen-Wen Kuo
 3B 23.5 Carlos Mendez (blocked by Nefi Soto)
 SS 20.1 D.D. Gregorius
 LF 22.7 Sean Conner
 CF 21.0 Alex Oliveras
 RF 23.6 Andrew Means

  C 21.0 Jordan Wideman (or Chris McMurray)
  C 21.2 Chase Weems
 3B 23.6 Frank Pfister
 SS 23.0 Shane Carlson
 OF 22.2 Tony Brown

 SP 20.4 Kyle Lotzkar
 SP 20.4 J.C. Sulbaran
 SP 21.1 Evan Hildenbrandt
 SP 19.8 Tyler Cline
 SP 21.0 Oscar Castro
 SP 22.5 Tzu-Kai Chiu

 CL 21.8 Brad Boxberger
 RP 22.3 Pedro Villarreal
 RP 23.4 Justin Freeman
 RP 24.5 Mike Bohana
 RP 21.6 Ezequiel Infante
 RP 22.4 Josh Beal
 RP 22.2 Hector Santana
 RP 23.4 Justin Walker

*age as of 4/1/2010

Here are just a couple problems with this roster:
No more than four players may be 23 years old or older, so I think we'll see a few of these guys get cut (Bohana, Pfister, Carlson) or promoted (Walker, Freeman, Mendez).
If Carlos Mendez gets promoted to A+ like he deserves, the only third baseman left is Frank Pfister, who should probably be cut. Both Oliver Santos and Will Stramp are 23+ years old (and devoid of talent), so the 3B situation might become a mess. Maybe someone from the DSL (Miguel Chacoa, Ariel Baez) will get a shot.

[GIDP]

Nooo not Mr. Pfister.

[redsof72]

You might see a couple more repeating players from '09 due to the fact that most of last year's Sarasota team just won't be ready to move to Carolina. I think Carlson will get the edge over Kuo as the starting second baseman. Mendez, I think, goes to Lynchburg in some role, maybe first base. Chase Ware would be a name to add to the list of pitchers. Good sources tell me that Boxberger probably begins 2010 as a starter at Lynchburg with the idea that he may eventually become a reliever. Joseph could be back in Dayton. Third base is a total black hole right now. First base is a big question mark. Yorman Rodriguez's starting point is a question. The word was that once the Pioneer League figured out that he would chase pitches out of the zone and struggle with breaking stuff, they pretty much shut him down. So he will have to improve in those areas to move up a level.

[camisadelgolf]

You might see a couple more repeating players from '09 due to the fact that most of last year's Sarasota team just won't be ready to move to Carolina. I think Carlson will get the edge over Kuo as the starting second baseman. Mendez, I think, goes to Lynchburg in some role, maybe first base. Chase Ware would be a name to add to the list of pitchers. Good sources tell me that Boxberger probably begins 2010 as a starter at Lynchburg with the idea that he may eventually become a reliever. Joseph could be back in Dayton. Third base is a total black hole right now. First base is a big question mark. Yorman Rodriguez's starting point is a question. The word was that once the Pioneer League figured out that he would chase pitches out of the zone and struggle with breaking stuff, they pretty much shut him down. So he will have to improve in those areas to move up a level.

Thank you for the input. I always look forward to it. I have some questions, if you don't mind answering.
How long do you see Kuo staying in the system? He had a fairly large signing bonus (third round money, iIrc), so I figured the Reds would want to give him a lot more opportunity than Carlson.
Could you see Ravin making a transition to the bullpen? What about Tzu-Kai Chiu? Is Justin Walker or Justin Freeman worth keeping an eye on? What did you think of Scott Gaffney? He reminds me a lot of Josh Roenicke (who skipped Dayton).

[redsof72]

Kuo has not shown much, either in terms of production or tools. You never know how young players mature, but based on what I saw in 2009, I do not see him being an everyday player in 2010. If you have seen him play, you have seen that he has that "chop" style of swing that is more effective with much faster players. If you compare him with, say, Jake Kahaulelio, who is a somewhat similar player, I like Jake much better.

Yes, I could see Ravin in the bullpen at some point, but probably not soon. They still want him to gain experience and confidence and he needs innings. Have not seen Chiu or Freeman. Walker is a soft-tosser who has value as an organizational guy.

Gaffney is an interesting player. He has one of the better arms in the lower levels of the organization. I don't think he throws as hard as Roenicke. Gaffney's 2009 season was mainly a comeback season from Tommy John. Caution was applied. Keep an eye on him in 2010. He could be a break-out guy. He needs to gain confidence. He struggled when he came into games with men on base in pressure situations, which I think is mainly a confidence issue, although pitching coaches sometimes refer to it in less eloquent terms.

[camisadelgolf]

If Ravin stays as a starter, it's going to be interesting to see how the Reds decide who fill out the rest of the rotations in the organization.

These are very rough projections, but I see the rotations in A-ball and up shaping up something like this:
MLB
Edinson Volquez*
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Micah Owings/Matt Maloney

AAA
Travis Wood
Sam LeCure
Matt Klinker
Justin Lehr
Daryl Thompson/Matt Maloney/Jon Adkins

AA
Mike Leake
Jeremy Horst
Dallas Buck
Scott Carroll
Jordan Smith/James Avery/Tom Cochran/Luis Montano

A+
Brad Boxberger
Matt Fairel
Mark Serrano
Lance Janke
Travis Webb/Josh Ravin/Curtis Partch

A
Kyle Lotzkar
J.C. Sulbaran
Evan Hildenbrandt
Tyler Cline
Oscar Castro/Tzu-Kai Chiu/Harold Johnson/Dan Tuttle

[Scrap Irony]

Assuming health for all, that Dayton staff should be the real deal. Add in Stormin' Yorman and there's talent to watch.

[redsof72]

camisadelgolf, that looks pretty close to me. I am not ready to bet that the two injured guys, Lotzkar and Hildenbrandt, will be ready. If you had both in the same rotation, you would probably have to go with 13 pitchers. Hard for me to think that Oscar Castro could be in the running. I think it is possible that Ravin starts back in Dayton, but that will be determined.

The rotations look strong in the high minors. Harder to predict what guys will do in the low minors. Will Sulbaran show improvement? Will Cline be able to effectively skip a level? Those are harder to predict. Time will tell.

I am not sure what to expect from Yorman. Will he make the Dayton team out of spring training? If so, how will he handle MWL pitching? The word was that once the Pioneer League figured him out, he was a pretty easy out. Throw him breaking stuff early in the count, get ahead, and then don't throw anything else in the zone and he will chase. He hit .303 in his first 20 games at Billings, then .159 in 26 games the rest of the way. Maybe he will adjust. He is a guy who could go to Dayton and hit .170 or .300. Not many guys you would say that about.