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Thread: Draft or Bust

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Draft or Bust

    The Drew Stubbs thread, well one of many of them, got me thinking. There was discussion of his being a 'bust' and such. But by nature, the draft is full of busts. Frankly, it sure seems like to get any longevity and decent production out of a player is the exception.

    Oh sure, you don't use a first round pick hoping the player will simply defeat replacement level. But on the other hand, maybe if you draft with that goal in mind, you're doing pretty well.

    I went through the first round drafts, 1990-1999. The results were what I expected, but shockingly worse.

    This is how these 10 drafts have fared (there are still a few players that could bring these numbers up, but not many):

    282 selections (284 but two players were drafted twice)
    90 (31.9%) have earned 5+ years service time to earn pension
    44 (15.6%) have earned an All-Star appearance
    30 (10.6%) have earned multiple All-Star appearances
    42 (14.9%) have at least one All-Star and 5+ years service time
    171 (60.6%) played fewer than 3 years in the majors
    133 (47.2%) never got a cup of coffee in the bigs or played less than a year
    14 (5.0%) have earned at least three All-Star appearances

    So, in summation, you've a better chance of drafting someone that never makes it to the majors (47.2%) than you do drafting someone that even manages to play at least three years (39.3%).

    So if someone is a league average hitter for their position and is an above-average defender... I would say that's far from a bust. In fact, you've done well for yourself considering these percentages.

    I have not formally looked at this decade thus far, but preliminary results say the numbers are pretty similar.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    The Drew Stubbs thread, well one of many of them, got me thinking. There was discussion of his being a 'bust' and such. But by nature, the draft is full of busts. Frankly, it sure seems like to get any longevity and decent production out of a player is the exception.

    Oh sure, you don't use a first round pick hoping the player will simply defeat replacement level. But on the other hand, maybe if you draft with that goal in mind, you're doing pretty well.

    I went through the first round drafts, 1990-1999. The results were what I expected, but shockingly worse.

    This is how these 10 drafts have fared (there are still a few players that could bring these numbers up, but not many):

    282 selections (284 but two players were drafted twice)
    90 (31.9%) have earned 5+ years service time to earn pension
    44 (15.6%) have earned an All-Star appearance
    30 (10.6%) have earned multiple All-Star appearances
    42 (14.9%) have at least one All-Star and 5+ years service time
    171 (60.6%) played fewer than 3 years in the majors
    133 (47.2%) never got a cup of coffee in the bigs or played less than a year
    14 (5.0%) have earned at least three All-Star appearances

    So, in summation, you've a better chance of drafting someone that never makes it to the majors (47.2%) than you do drafting someone that even manages to play at least three years (39.3%).

    So if someone is a league average hitter for their position and is an above-average defender... I would say that's far from a bust. In fact, you've done well for yourself considering these percentages.

    I have not formally looked at this decade thus far, but preliminary results say the numbers are pretty similar.
    Did you see any difference in top 10 versus overall 1st rounders?

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    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post

    So, in summation, you've a better chance of drafting someone that never makes it to the majors (47.2%) than you do drafting someone that even manages to play at least three years (39.3%).

    So if someone is a league average hitter for their position and is an above-average defender... I would say that's far from a bust. In fact, you've done well for yourself considering these percentages.

    I have not formally looked at this decade thus far, but preliminary results say the numbers are pretty similar.
    Good information, but until or unless Drew Stubbs turns into Tim Lincecum, he will continue to be a bust in the eyes of some.

    The Reds are obviously much worse at finding talent in the draft than everyone else in baseball, so their picks are always busts. Come on Brutus, I thought you knew that.

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    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    That's why when prospects are traded for an established player, usually the team that gets the established player wins the trade.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Good information, but until or unless Drew Stubbs turns into Tim Lincecum, he will continue to be a bust in the eyes of some.

    The Reds are obviously much worse at finding talent in the draft than everyone else in baseball, so their picks are always busts. Come on Brutus, I thought you knew that.
    I think that's a bit much. Stubbs has definitely been scrutinized more than some because of who he was drafted ahead of, but he has also brought some of that scrutiny upon himself with his hitting in the minors.

    If he becomes Hakeem to Lincecum's Jordan, then I can't see anyone having a problem. However, he has looked more Bowie than Hakeem in the minors so far and that's where most of the problem lies.

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    Re: Draft or Bust

    I did a study similar to this for OOTP 9, I'll see if I can dig it up when I get home. It was about how many first rounders become HOF'ers, and I believe it included an analysis of top 10 picks I think.

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    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Here is a post I did back in Dec 2006 regarding where the top AL pitching prospects came from. Brutus is right in saying that many 1st rounders flame out, but I would be willing to wager that, of those players who are "draftable" (non-intl guys), a high percentage of those who have success in the minors and/or majors were high round picks.

    How to build your pitching from the ground up

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OK...this is probably becoming a tired topic for some as I am starting to get tired talking about it. But since BA just finished their Top 10 Prospects for all AL teams, I wanted to share something with the board.

    Take a look at the top pitching prospects for each team:

    Orioles: #2 Erbe (3rd round), #4 Beato (1st supp), #5 Liz (int FA), #6 Olson (1st supp), #8 Hoey (13th)

    Red Sox: #2 Buchholz (1st supp), #3 Bowden (1st supp), #4 Bard (1st), #7 Cox (3rd), #8 Hansen (1st), #9 Johnson (1st)

    NYY: #1 Hughes (1st), #3 Bellances (8th, but dropped b/c of contract demands - 1st round talent), #4 Chamberlain (1st supp), #5 Kennedy (1st), #6 Garcia (3rd), #7 Clippard (9th), #8 Cox (2nd), #9 Melancon (9th, but dropped due to injury concerns)

    Tampa: #4 Neimann (1st), #5 McGee (5th), #7 Davis (3rd), #8 Walker (10th), #9 Hellickson (4th)

    Toronto: #3 Romero (1st), #6 Rosario (int FA), #7 Magee (4th), #8 Litsch (24th - draft and follow), #9 Purcey (1st)

    CWS: #3 Broadway (1st), #4 McCullough (1st), #5 Haeger (25th, but jumped up in prospect rankings due to switch to knuckleball), #7 Russell (6th), #8 Harrell (4th), #9 Long (2nd)

    Cleveland: #1 Miller (1st supp), #2 Lofgren (4th), #4 Sipp (45th), #7 Lewis (3rd), #10 Huff (1st supp)

    Detroit #2 Miller (1st), #4 Jurrjens (int FA), #5 Tata (16th), #6 de la Cruz (int FA), #8 Trahern (34th)

    KC: #2 Hochevar (1st), #5 Lumsden (1st), #6 Cordier (2nd), #9 Buckner (2nd), #10 Fisher (7th)

    Minny: #1 Garza (1st), #2 Perkins (1st), #3 Slowey (2nd), #5 Swarzak (2nd), #6 Neshek (6th), #10 Durbin (2nd)

    LAA: #2 Adenhart (14th, but dropped due to TJ surgery), #4 Jung (int FA), #5 Marek (40th - draft and follow), #9 O'Sullivan, (3rd - draft and follow), #10 Mendoza (4th)

    Oakland: #7 Windsor (3rd), #8 McBeth (4th), #10 Cahill (2nd)

    Seattle: #3 Morrow (1st), #4 Butler (3rd), #5 Feierabend (3rd), #7 Lowe (5th), #8 Tillman (2nd), #10 O'Flaherty (6th)

    Texas: #1 Danks (1st), #2 Hurley (1st), #3 Volquez (int FA), #4 Diamond (1st), #7 Kiker (1st), #8 Masset (8th, signed as draft and follow and draft spot dropped due to TJ), #10 Rupe (3rd)

    OK...if you haven't gotten the point of the thread yet, take a look at these stats:

    Of the 37 pitchers ranked as #1-5 prospects in their organization (I couldn't go through them all, but the theme carries throughout #s 6-10, it seems):

    a) 20 were taken in the 1st or 1st supp round.
    b) 2 were taken in the 2nd round
    c) 3 were taken in the 3rd round
    d) 1 was taken in the 4th round
    e) 1 was taken in the 5th round
    f) 4 were signed as international free agents
    g) 6 were drafted beyond the 5th round, though one dropped b/c of contract demands (Bellances), one dropped b/c of injury (Adenhart) and one was a draft and follow (Malek). Additionally, Haegar is an outlier b/c his career moved up when he learned a knuckler.

    I was a bit surprised when I went through this exercise, but I think this tells a lot. Wayne, are you out there?

    1) If there is a pitcher out there in the 1st round or supp 1st round who deserves to be taken there, TAKE HIM.
    2) Int FAs need to be taken seriously.
    3) Putting aside outliers (Bellances, Haegar, Adenhart and Malek), only 2 of the 33 non-outliers (Sipp and Tata) in the population were taken after the 5th round.

    Now if pitchers like Lilly and Meche are going to demand $10 mil per, there is no other alternative than to draft pitching early and often in the 2007 draft. The Reds have the #15, the #37 (for Aurilia) and I believe another #1 supp for Schoeneweis. Has Cincy ever had a draft lined up like this? Those 3 HAVE to be used on pitching. I would even be in favor of maybe overdrafting a pitcher a little bit in one of those spots over a bat. As you can see above (and due to the insanity in the FA pitching mkt), it will be difficult for WK not to flood the system with pitching.

    Wayne, please take pitchers with those 1st 3 picks...and maybe more.

    Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Good information, but until or unless Drew Stubbs turns into Tim Lincecum, he will continue to be a bust in the eyes of some.

    The Reds are obviously much worse at finding talent in the draft than everyone else in baseball, so their picks are always busts. Come on Brutus, I thought you knew that.
    Even though you say this in jest, it's a true statement. Recently, the Reds have shown a vast inability to find talent in the draft, particularly in the 1st round.

    Identifying talent is an area where the Reds definitely need to improve, IMO>

    They also need to continue to improve in the area of talent development, as well.

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    Re: Draft or Bust

    I wouldn't say that they've shown a vast inability to find talent in the 1st round. Stubbs, Alonso, and Leake all look to be talented and the jury, in the opinion of some at least, is still out on Mesoraco. My problem is how they decide on the picks. A catcher in the 1st round when, iirc, history shows that's a bad idea and a 1st baseman who doesn't need that much time in the minors when we already have a good young 1st baseman. Stubbs was a reach but it looks like he will be talented enough to help us and I have no problem with picking Leake. The drafts are better than they used to be but they could still be better. I would agree though that any improvements made towards scouting and development would be a good thing.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 09-09-2009 at 12:25 PM.

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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Even though you say this in jest, it's a true statement. Recently, the Reds have shown a vast inability to find talent in the draft, particularly in the 1st round.

    Identifying talent is an area where the Reds definitely need to improve, IMO>

    They also need to continue to improve in the area of talent development, as well.
    I'm not sure how you define recently, but for some time the reds first round selection was not determined by talent, but by the willingness of the draftee to sign for what the reds considered a reasonable talent fee. Of course this cullminated in the reds drafting Jeremy Sowers knowing full well that they would not sign him.

    In other words...intent to draft is important. The reds have been going into the draft not with the intent of signing the best baseball player, but with the intent of drafting someone they felt they could afford. When you do that, it queers your chance at selecting the best baseball player.

    It appears there has been a sea change in organizational philosophy since the departure of leatherpants. The last six non-Bowden drafts have produced....Bailey/Bruce/Stubbs/Mesaroco/Yonder/Leake.

    Mesaroco was a reach, but it could still work out. The others appear reasonably competent picks.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

  12. #11
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Did you see any difference in top 10 versus overall 1st rounders?
    Ask and ye shall receive:

    For Top-10 picks in the first round only (1990-1999)

    99 selections
    45 (45.5%) have earned pension with 5+ years experience
    13 (13.1%) have earned multiple All-Star appearances
    21 (21.2%) have earned an All-Star appearance and 5+ years experience
    47 (47.5%) have played fewer than 3 years in the majors
    30 (30.3%) never got a cup of coffee in the bigs or played less than a year
    6 (6.1%) have earned at least three All-Star appearances

    Here is a quick grid comparing the two.

    Code:
    Criteria	                               Top 10	First Rd.
    Drafts 1990-1999	                  99 selections	282 selections
    Played at least 5+ years	                45.5%	31.9%
    Played 5+ years and at least one ASG	        21.2%	14.9%
    Played in Multiple ASG's	                13.1%	10.6%
    Played in 3 or more ASG's	                 6.1%	 5.0%
    Played Less than 3 years	                47.5%	60.6%
    Played no more than one (1) year	        30.3%	47.2%
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Redsmetz redsmetz's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    An interesting look at the Reds #1's during that time.

    7 had ML time, 4 with 5+ years (Kearns, Nitkowski, Reese & Dan Wilson), only one All Star appearance (Wilson, but with Seattle) and two Gold Gloves (Reese). Of course, Wilson & Nitowski had a brief time with the Reds and both were traded for pieces (Wilson for B. Boone & Erik Hanson; Nitowski, and others, for David Wells). The other three with brief playing time in the ML's were Brandon Larson, Pat Watkins and Chad Mottola.

    Historially, Dan Wilson was the best of the group, IMO.
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    I'm not sure how you define recently, but for some time the reds first round selection was not determined by talent, but by the willingness of the draftee to sign for what the reds considered a reasonable talent fee. Of course this cullminated in the reds drafting Jeremy Sowers knowing full well that they would not sign him.

    In other words...intent to draft is important. The reds have been going into the draft not with the intent of signing the best baseball player, but with the intent of drafting someone they felt they could afford. When you do that, it queers your chance at selecting the best baseball player.

    It appears there has been a sea change in organizational philosophy since the departure of leatherpants. The last six non-Bowden drafts have produced....Bailey/Bruce/Stubbs/Mesaroco/Yonder/Leake.

    Mesaroco was a reach, but it could still work out. The others appear reasonably competent picks.
    Bailey - currently BOR SP. Next year will determine how Bailey should be judged. If he stays the same, then he wasn't a good draft pick, IMO.

    Bruce - Bruce needs to have a monster bounce back year in 2010 to get him back on track, or else FCB may have been right about Jay Bruce.

    Stubbs - Great D, great speed, no stick. Hard to imagine he'll find his stick @ the big league level. Given 3 years of college ball, he's way behind in terms of development, or he wasn't as good as advertised. Take your pick.

    Mesoraco - Quite possibly the Reds worst draft pick in recent history. If this kid ever sees meaningful major league ABs I'll be surprised.

    Alonso - Kid should be the real deal. I only wonder if we'll see him play for the Reds, or if we'll trade him for something since he's probably currently our biggest, baddest, best trading chip.

    Leake - IMO a good choice for the Reds. Let's see how/where he pitches next season.




    I just hope we haven't screwed up Bruce's development. He's the most important piece to the Reds future plans.

  15. #14
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    I think it totally depends on what your definition of a bust is and how much time you give draftee's to prove themselves. To me a bust is a player who comes in highly touted and does not produce at the level many thought he could. As far as time goes I think it really depends on the position, and where the player came from HS or College program. Lots of variables to take into consideration before the bust label should be applied to Reds prospects or any athlete.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  16. #15
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Draft or Bust

    To me a bust is a player who doesn't help out a team for a few seasons and wasn't injured, but was a highly touted prospect. That doesn't apply to most guys. Bust to me is about not using the talent you had to get anywhere. Guys who wind up getting hurt aren't bust for me, they are simply unlucky. We will never know what would have happened for those guys.

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Even though you say this in jest, it's a true statement. Recently, the Reds have shown a vast inability to find talent in the draft, particularly in the 1st round.
    Its a bit early to suggest that and you know it. Going back 5 years in the draft, the Reds first round pick from that year turned 23 years old during the season. 23. Their next years pick turned 22. The next years pick is 24. The next years pick turned 21 this season. The next years pick is 22 this season. The next years pick turned 21 this season. So basically the Reds inability to find talent is a done deal based on what 4/5 guys with an average age of 22.5 haven't done?


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