How to build your pitching from the ground up
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OK...this is probably becoming a tired topic for some as I am starting to get tired talking about it. But since BA just finished their Top 10 Prospects for all AL teams, I wanted to share something with the board.
Take a look at the top pitching prospects for each team:
Orioles: #2 Erbe (3rd round), #4 Beato (1st supp), #5 Liz (int FA), #6 Olson (1st supp), #8 Hoey (13th)
Red Sox: #2 Buchholz (1st supp), #3 Bowden (1st supp), #4 Bard (1st), #7 Cox (3rd), #8 Hansen (1st), #9 Johnson (1st)
NYY: #1 Hughes (1st), #3 Bellances (8th, but dropped b/c of contract demands - 1st round talent), #4 Chamberlain (1st supp), #5 Kennedy (1st), #6 Garcia (3rd), #7 Clippard (9th), #8 Cox (2nd), #9 Melancon (9th, but dropped due to injury concerns)
Tampa: #4 Neimann (1st), #5 McGee (5th), #7 Davis (3rd), #8 Walker (10th), #9 Hellickson (4th)
Toronto: #3 Romero (1st), #6 Rosario (int FA), #7 Magee (4th), #8 Litsch (24th - draft and follow), #9 Purcey (1st)
CWS: #3 Broadway (1st), #4 McCullough (1st), #5 Haeger (25th, but jumped up in prospect rankings due to switch to knuckleball), #7 Russell (6th), #8 Harrell (4th), #9 Long (2nd)
Cleveland: #1 Miller (1st supp), #2 Lofgren (4th), #4 Sipp (45th), #7 Lewis (3rd), #10 Huff (1st supp)
Detroit #2 Miller (1st), #4 Jurrjens (int FA), #5 Tata (16th), #6 de la Cruz (int FA), #8 Trahern (34th)
KC: #2 Hochevar (1st), #5 Lumsden (1st), #6 Cordier (2nd), #9 Buckner (2nd), #10 Fisher (7th)
Minny: #1 Garza (1st), #2 Perkins (1st), #3 Slowey (2nd), #5 Swarzak (2nd), #6 Neshek (6th), #10 Durbin (2nd)
LAA: #2 Adenhart (14th, but dropped due to TJ surgery), #4 Jung (int FA), #5 Marek (40th - draft and follow), #9 O'Sullivan, (3rd - draft and follow), #10 Mendoza (4th)
Oakland: #7 Windsor (3rd), #8 McBeth (4th), #10 Cahill (2nd)
Seattle: #3 Morrow (1st), #4 Butler (3rd), #5 Feierabend (3rd), #7 Lowe (5th), #8 Tillman (2nd), #10 O'Flaherty (6th)
Texas: #1 Danks (1st), #2 Hurley (1st), #3 Volquez (int FA), #4 Diamond (1st), #7 Kiker (1st), #8 Masset (8th, signed as draft and follow and draft spot dropped due to TJ), #10 Rupe (3rd)
OK...if you haven't gotten the point of the thread yet, take a look at these stats:
Of the 37 pitchers ranked as #1-5 prospects in their organization (I couldn't go through them all, but the theme carries throughout #s 6-10, it seems):
a) 20 were taken in the 1st or 1st supp round.
b) 2 were taken in the 2nd round
c) 3 were taken in the 3rd round
d) 1 was taken in the 4th round
e) 1 was taken in the 5th round
f) 4 were signed as international free agents
g) 6 were drafted beyond the 5th round, though one dropped b/c of contract demands (Bellances), one dropped b/c of injury (Adenhart) and one was a draft and follow (Malek). Additionally, Haegar is an outlier b/c his career moved up when he learned a knuckler.
I was a bit surprised when I went through this exercise, but I think this tells a lot. Wayne, are you out there?
1) If there is a pitcher out there in the 1st round or supp 1st round who deserves to be taken there, TAKE HIM.
2) Int FAs need to be taken seriously.
3) Putting aside outliers (Bellances, Haegar, Adenhart and Malek), only 2 of the 33 non-outliers (Sipp and Tata) in the population were taken after the 5th round.
Now if pitchers like Lilly and Meche are going to demand $10 mil per, there is no other alternative than to draft pitching early and often in the 2007 draft. The Reds have the #15, the #37 (for Aurilia) and I believe another #1 supp for Schoeneweis. Has Cincy ever had a draft lined up like this? Those 3 HAVE to be used on pitching. I would even be in favor of maybe overdrafting a pitcher a little bit in one of those spots over a bat. As you can see above (and due to the insanity in the FA pitching mkt), it will be difficult for WK not to flood the system with pitching.
Wayne, please take pitchers with those 1st 3 picks...and maybe more.
Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.