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Thread: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

  1. #1
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    Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    I don't know how he does it, but Adam Dunn just keeps producing and is finally having the year I think everyone always dreamed about for him. Right now, he is at .280 BA 35 HR 92 RBI .411 OBP .558 SLG .969 OPS. And he is doing it in the cavern that is the Nationals home park. He's still striking out at his normal rate, but that BA is at rate that people can be comfortable with, making all his other numbers look that much better.

    He is on pace for 41 HRs, which would put him at an amazing 6 years in a row over 40. In fact, he has a very good shot at exactly 40 which would be the 5th year in a row he has hit 40 on the nose. Talk about consistent.

    I know Dunn divided the crowd here at RZ, but I wanted to tip my hat to a guy who, as he turns 30 in two months, is on pace to go down in history as one of the most prolific home run hitters of all time.

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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    dunn for 10 million with that production is awesome, but I think he was wanting 18 million. He has not been replaced. Would love to have him at 1st base and votto in left. Be a nice little offense to go with our pitching.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    If you look at Dunn's K-rate, W-rate , LD-rate etc, everything is right in line with his lifetime averages.

    The only thing that has changed is that his BABIP is .050 higher than usual, resulting in the incresed BA, SL % and OPS.

    He's likley just having that one year most ball players eventually have where everything just falls in for them.

    I don't think he's really improved his game, otherwise you see it in things like K-rate etc.

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    And he's playing 1B while doing it.

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    Plays The Right Way Hap's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    and let us not forget that 2010 is his contract year
    .

  7. #6
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    I smell a ruse to elicit another 300-reply doozy.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    And he's playing 1B while doing it.
    Unfortunately, UZR data so far show him no better at 1B relative to his peers than his was in LF, putting him on pace for right around 20 RAR -- worth about $10M.

    One thing that did stand out to me is that his contact rate on balls out of the zone is up a good deal. Though his overall contact rate is only up slightly...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    It is very disheartening to see Adam Dunn hitting so well in a Nationals uniform while the Reds offense has been historically awful.

    I am very glad Dunn is having such a great season. It really shows once and for all how foolish the Reds were to let him get away from this inept franchise.

  10. #9
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    It is very disheartening to see Adam Dunn hitting so well in a Nationals uniform while the Reds offense has been historically awful.

    I am very glad Dunn is having such a great season. It really shows once and for all how foolish the Reds were to let him get away from this inept franchise.
    I concur.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    Runs Above Replacement, per Fangraphs:

    Jonny Gomes: 8.9 (261 PA)
    Laynce Nix: 11.6 (307 PA)

    LF Platoon: 20.5 (568 PA)
    Dunn: 18.1 (579 PA)

    Still want to pay Dunn $10M?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    The constant trumpeting of specious defensive "statistics" is beyond tiresome at this point.

    Dunn is a beast. It's a damn shame he's now putting together his HoF resume on a squad other than the Reds.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  13. #12
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Runs Above Replacement, per Fangraphs:

    Jonny Gomes: 8.9 (261 PA)
    Laynce Nix: 11.6 (307 PA)

    LF Platoon: 20.5 (568 PA)
    Dunn: 18.1 (579 PA)

    Still want to pay Dunn $10M?
    Yes
    Most Vottomatic Player

  14. #13
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    Dunn has the fifth-lowest career at bats per home run average in Major-League history. His 13.96 ratio (about one home run every 14 times he comes to bat) is eclipsed only by Mark McGwire (10.61), Babe Ruth (11.76), Barry Bonds (12.90), and Jim Thome (13.68). Stretching behind Dunn are such Hall-of-Famers as Ralph Kiner, Harmon Killebrew, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, and Mike Schmidt, respectively.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  15. #14
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    I have always said that Dunn's Achillies heel has been his inability to hit with two strikes. Now most hitters have problems with that, but Dunn has been especially ineffective with two strikes during his career. Here are his career numbers:

    .152 .279 .306 .586

    The average OPS for middle of the lineup guys is around .640 Dunn's career numbers are more similar to Jerry Hairston Jr. and Fred Lewis.

    But this year, here are his numbers with two strikes:

    .177 .328 .328 .657

    He's seems to have found a way to be more productive with two strikes, which has made him a much better hitter overall.

    I am really happy for him, and hope this is the beginning of a new Dunn. Even if he never plays for the Reds again, I will always root for him and hope he finally becomes that Star that we were all hoping he would become.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  16. #15
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    The constant trumpeting of specious defensive "statistics" is beyond tiresome at this point.

    Dunn is a beast. It's a damn shame he's now putting together his HoF resume on a squad other than the Reds.
    While I'm happy to recognize that defensive stats are not as well proven as offensive ones (particularly given the "smell" test apparently... sort of like OPS back a decade ago...), the current stats get us much closer to reality than does ignoring defense entirely. Every analysis of Dunn's defense, be it your defensive stat of choice or your favorite scout, will tell you he's among the worst defenders in baseball. His offensive production is stellar, no doubt. Always has been. I see no reason we can't appreciate his offense while approach his overall value in consideration of his horrific defense.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-09-2009 at 09:32 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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