Don't look now - Dunn having year we always hoped for

[buckeyenut]

I don't know how he does it, but Adam Dunn just keeps producing and is finally having the year I think everyone always dreamed about for him. Right now, he is at .280 BA 35 HR 92 RBI .411 OBP .558 SLG .969 OPS. And he is doing it in the cavern that is the Nationals home park. He's still striking out at his normal rate, but that BA is at rate that people can be comfortable with, making all his other numbers look that much better.

He is on pace for 41 HRs, which would put him at an amazing 6 years in a row over 40. In fact, he has a very good shot at exactly 40 which would be the 5th year in a row he has hit 40 on the nose. Talk about consistent.

I know Dunn divided the crowd here at RZ, but I wanted to tip my hat to a guy who, as he turns 30 in two months, is on pace to go down in history as one of the most prolific home run hitters of all time.

[Reds1]

dunn for 10 million with that production is awesome, but I think he was wanting 18 million. He has not been replaced. Would love to have him at 1st base and votto in left. Be a nice little offense to go with our pitching.

[PuffyPig]

If you look at Dunn's K-rate, W-rate , LD-rate etc, everything is right in line with his lifetime averages.

The only thing that has changed is that his BABIP is .050 higher than usual, resulting in the incresed BA, SL % and OPS.

He's likley just having that one year most ball players eventually have where everything just falls in for them.

I don't think he's really improved his game, otherwise you see it in things like K-rate etc.

[Highlifeman21]

And he's playing 1B while doing it.

[Hap]

and let us not forget that 2010 is his contract year

[Brutus]

I smell a ruse to elicit another 300-reply doozy.

[RedsManRick]

And he's playing 1B while doing it.

Unfortunately, UZR data so far show him no better at 1B relative to his peers than his was in LF, putting him on pace for right around 20 RAR -- worth about $10M.

One thing that did stand out to me is that his contact rate on balls out of the zone is up a good deal. Though his overall contact rate is only up slightly...

[AtomicDumpling]

It is very disheartening to see Adam Dunn hitting so well in a Nationals uniform while the Reds offense has been historically awful.

I am very glad Dunn is having such a great season. It really shows once and for all how foolish the Reds were to let him get away from this inept franchise.

[mth123]

It is very disheartening to see Adam Dunn hitting so well in a Nationals uniform while the Reds offense has been historically awful.

I am very glad Dunn is having such a great season. It really shows once and for all how foolish the Reds were to let him get away from this inept franchise.

I concur.

[RedsManRick]

Runs Above Replacement, per Fangraphs:

Jonny Gomes: 8.9 (261 PA)
Laynce Nix: 11.6 (307 PA)

LF Platoon: 20.5 (568 PA)
Dunn: 18.1 (579 PA)

Still want to pay Dunn $10M?

[WMR]

The constant trumpeting of specious defensive "statistics" is beyond tiresome at this point.

Dunn is a beast. It's a damn shame he's now putting together his HoF resume on a squad other than the Reds.

[Degenerate39]

Runs Above Replacement, per Fangraphs:

Jonny Gomes: 8.9 (261 PA)
Laynce Nix: 11.6 (307 PA)

LF Platoon: 20.5 (568 PA)
Dunn: 18.1 (579 PA)

Still want to pay Dunn $10M?

Yes

[WMR]

Dunn has the fifth-lowest career at bats per home run average in Major-League history. His 13.96 ratio (about one home run every 14 times he comes to bat) is eclipsed only by Mark McGwire (10.61), Babe Ruth (11.76), Barry Bonds (12.90), and Jim Thome (13.68). Stretching behind Dunn are such Hall-of-Famers as Ralph Kiner, Harmon Killebrew, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, and Mike Schmidt, respectively.

[TheNext44]

I have always said that Dunn's Achillies heel has been his inability to hit with two strikes. Now most hitters have problems with that, but Dunn has been especially ineffective with two strikes during his career. Here are his career numbers:

.152 .279 .306 .586

The average OPS for middle of the lineup guys is around .640 Dunn's career numbers are more similar to Jerry Hairston Jr. and Fred Lewis.

But this year, here are his numbers with two strikes:

.177 .328 .328 .657

He's seems to have found a way to be more productive with two strikes, which has made him a much better hitter overall.

I am really happy for him, and hope this is the beginning of a new Dunn. Even if he never plays for the Reds again, I will always root for him and hope he finally becomes that Star that we were all hoping he would become.

[RedsManRick]

The constant trumpeting of specious defensive "statistics" is beyond tiresome at this point.

Dunn is a beast. It's a damn shame he's now putting together his HoF resume on a squad other than the Reds.

While I'm happy to recognize that defensive stats are not as well proven as offensive ones (particularly given the "smell" test apparently... sort of like OPS back a decade ago...), the current stats get us much closer to reality than does ignoring defense entirely. Every analysis of Dunn's defense, be it your defensive stat of choice or your favorite scout, will tell you he's among the worst defenders in baseball. His offensive production is stellar, no doubt. Always has been. I see no reason we can't appreciate his offense while approach his overall value in consideration of his horrific defense.