The Official 'Who Do We Protect from the Rule Five Draft?' Thread

[redsof72]

Those two players will be heavily debated within the Reds "war room." I don't think they feel that Dorn can play any position well enough to fit into a role at the big league level. Watson, in another year, probably, and maybe this year. I think they like others better. I know they moved Del Rosario to Double-A just because it was his protection year and they wanted to see how he would hold up, and he was better than Watson there, so they moved EDR to Triple-A. Valiquette just has too good an arm. Valaika, they won't give up on after one bad year. It could come down to Watson or Jordan Smith.

[lollipopcurve]

It could come down to Watson or Jordan Smith.

What has been Smith's major malfunction this year -- i.e., what health issue? Is it his knee still, or is it arm now?

[redsof72]

Smith had an elbow strain. I did not see Smith or Watson pitch this season. Hard for me to even make an educated guess on which direction they will go. One other guy that could be in that battle for the 40th spot on the roster is Ben Jukich. Numbers wise, he and LeCure look like the same guy.

A guy that has impressed me over the last few days, who I would have had on the list to be outrighted as recently as the end of August, is Ramon Ramirez. He has been used in some close games and has looked good. He has a great change-up. I could see him battling for the 12th spot on the staff next March with the likes of Owings, Viola, Wells, Maloney, and a couple of others perhaps.

[lollipopcurve]

A guy that has impressed me over the last few days, who I would have had on the list to be outrighted as recently as the end of August, is Ramon Ramirez. He has been used in some close games and has looked good. He has a great change-up. I could see him battling for the 12th spot on the staff next March with the likes of Owings, Viola, Wells, Maloney, and a couple of others perhaps.

I've been a Ramirez fan since seeing him last year. He should be protected. If he isn't, he'll get taken.

[redsof72]

I agree Ramirez will definitely be protected.

[HokieRed]

I think Ramirez will be protected, as will LeCure, who'll surely be taken if not protected. I'd also protect Dorn and Valaika if there is room. I wouldn't protect any of the catchers other than Hanigan if that's what it takes to protect anybody in the org. with an arm or a significant bat. I don't think Valaika will draw interest but there's a risk. Not protecting him isn't to give up on him; it's just to take the risk he won't be taken in order to protect somebody else with the possibility of greater value later on--e.g. a Valiquette.

[camisadelgolf]

I really hope the Reds trade away Dorn instead of letting one get away in the rule five draft. For 2010, the Reds have a good problem in that their outfield is very crowded in the high minors.

Cincy
LF Gomes
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce
OF Balentien
OF Taveras

Louisville
LF Francisco
CF Heisey
RF Dickerson
OF Dorn
OF Henry/Cumberland/minor league free agent

[mth123]

This team needs to make a trade to thin the herd for maybe a single quality guy to fill a spot. One other aspect to think about is the PTBNL in the David Weathers deal. It coud be some one who requires protection and would further crowd the situation (hoping for Jonathon Lucroy).

As for me, I'd let Lecure go if they need a spot. I'd also cut Tatum loose but might protect Chris Denove. Kip Wells may be forcing his way onto the 40 man which will take up another spot.

[RED VAN HOT]

I can't see the Reds keeping either Wells or Lehr at the expense of leaving a minor league arm unprotected. The biggest risk in exposing them is having the Cardinals turn them into Cy Young candidates. Jimbo would have given both 2 year contracts. I think the Reds now have sufficient pitching depth to make this unnecessary. I believe the days of gap filler, insurance depth contracts are over.

Is Burton arbitration eligible? If so, how much would you expect him to cost? I could see Ondrusek making the team out of spring training as a cheaper, and perhaps, more effective option. He seems to be in line for future closer. If he pitches well, it could permit the Reds to move Cordero at mid season next year. Also, if Ramirez is kept, he should be on the 25. I can't see him going back to AAA for further development.

Is Balentien out of options?

[dougdirt]

Is Balentien out of options?

Yes.

[camisadelgolf]

Yes, Wladimir Balentien is out of options. That's why he became available.

The arbitration-eligible players are:
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Jonny Gomes
Nick Masset
Laynce Nix
Micah Owings
Edinson Volquez (possible but doubtful)

[mth123]

I can't see the Reds keeping either Wells or Lehr at the expense of leaving a minor league arm unprotected. The biggest risk in exposing them is having the Cardinals turn them into Cy Young candidates. Jimbo would have given both 2 year contracts. I think the Reds now have sufficient pitching depth to make this unnecessary. I believe the days of gap filler, insurance depth contracts are over.

Is Burton arbitration eligible? If so, how much would you expect him to cost? I could see Ondrusek making the team out of spring training as a cheaper, and perhaps, more effective option. He seems to be in line for future closer. If he pitches well, it could permit the Reds to move Cordero at mid season next year. Also, if Ramirez is kept, he should be on the 25. I can't see him going back to AAA for further development.

Is Balentien out of options?

I don't know. Now that Homer is written in ink into next year's rotation, Wells is more likely to be a decent starter than any minor leaguer in the system over the next two or three years. I'm not a huge fan, but without Stewart, I'm not real high on the pitching candidates on the horizon.

Wells likely won't cost more than $1 Million in 2010 and given the payroll constraints, he just may be what this team needs to fill the back of the rotation. I like him better than Maloney, Owings, Ramirez and definitely Lecure. I'm hoping Wood can be a number 4 (but I'm a skeptic) and I don't know the timetable on Leake. Beyond those two, we're looking at swingmen, long relievers and guys who may end up in middle relief. Besides, they may just want to keep a vet around so that there aren't too many kids if/when Arroyo and/or Harang are dealt. Need some vets IMO. A rotation full of kids is the quickest way to an organization full of injured pitchers IMO. A rotation needs a guy who can take one for the team once in a while and if the two innings horses go, I don't want it to be Cueto, Homer, Volquez or any of the kids who may show promise.

[Tom Servo]

I can't see the Reds keeping either Wells or Lehr at the expense of leaving a minor league arm unprotected. The biggest risk in exposing them is having the Cardinals turn them into Cy Young candidates.

Kip Wells was one of the few starters that even Dave Duncan couldn't harness when Wells was a Redbird in 07.

I completely agree that Ramon Ramirez should be protected, he's been impressive whenever he gets the rare opportunity to pitch. I'd like to see him get a bigger role moving forward.

[Slyder]

If Kip Wells is the answer I dont want to know what the question was.

If he's kept on the 40 man roster the Reds deserve to have a potentially young arm grabbed in the Rule 5 draft. Yes he's been better for us, but he is a journeyman that had a month of starts. Jimmy Haynes anyone?

If he's willing to sign an MLC and appear in ST to earn a shot fine, but dont protect known low quality and lose a higher potential kid. I dont care about the washout rates, you know what Wells is (and thats not very good), you dont know what the kid could be.

[mth123]

If Kip Wells is the answer I dont want to know what the question was.

If he's kept on the 40 man roster the Reds deserve to have a potentially young arm grabbed in the Rule 5 draft. Yes he's been better for us, but he is a journeyman that had a month of starts. Jimmy Haynes anyone?

If he's willing to sign an MLC and appear in ST to earn a shot fine, but dont protect known low quality and lose a higher potential kid. I dont care about the washout rates, you know what Wells is (and thats not very good), you dont know what the kid could be.

I guess the rub here is that I don't see any higher potential kids that Wells would be bumping off the roster. Lecure? Watson? Sore armed Thompson? Dead-wing Dallas Buck? Wells month in Cincy counts for more than any of those guys have done in their minor league career. He's not going to be bumping Wood, Ondrusek, Viola, Ramirez or even Maloney, but I'd keep him over those other guys.

I agree that the GM should be working out a deal similar to the one they signed with Corey Patterson where Wells signs a minor league deal to create a spot but is promised a higher major league salary should he win a spot. But the Reds would probably end up paying more in that scenario than just keeping him on the 40 and negotiating with him. Not sure its worth it to a cash strapped team to bump the pay a little just to protect some of these "ham and eggers" everyone is worried about.

22 Pitchers
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Homer Bailey
Johnny Cueto
Ramon Ramirez
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Nick Masset
Logan Ondrusek
Bill Bray
Danny Rae Herrera
Carlos Fisher
Micah Owings
Arthur Lee Rhodes
Matt Maloney
Enerio Del Rosario
Travis Wood
Pedro Viola
Phil Valiquette
Jordan Smith
Kip Wells

2 Catchers
Ryan Hanigan
Chris Denove

8 IF
Chris Valaika
Adam Rosales
Drew Sutton
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips
Scott Rolen
Yonder Alonso
Paul Janish

8 OF
Chris Heisey
Juan Francisco
Drew Stubbs
Wladimir Balentien
Danny Dorn
Jay Bruce
Chris Dickerson
Johnny Gomes


This would mean that the Reds would DFA Taveras, Lincoln, Nix, Richar, Castillo, McDonald, Lecure, Miller, Thompson, Tatum, Lehr and Barker. While leaving Watson, Medina, Lutz and Henry unprotected. I'm guessing they won't do that. It would also leave Kris Negron unprotected and they may want to protect him since he was just acquired for Gonzalez. It would also not consider whoever is acquired in the Weathers deal. My next two drops would be difficult, but I'd consider dropping Bray and Viola. Maybe Dorn if he isn't going to get a shot. I'm sure the Reds list will look a lot different than mine.