I would place Cueto, Harang & Arroyo as locks. All three have been decent this year (ERA+ ~100 or a bit higher). I look at Harang & Arroyo as #3 starters and Cueto as hopefully a #2 type in 2010.
Homer is going to get a spot in 2010 unless he really blows up. He has the stuff and is showing signs that he is improving. His 2009 starts overall are way way better than his 2008 starts.
That leaves one open slot:
Volquez not only had TJ surgery he also had something else fixed in his arm. The ETA for his return is May-June-July of 2010. If the Reds count on him to be a part of the 2010 rotation this is a terrible plan IMO. IF he makes a good recovery from surgery his arm isn't going to be near what it was in 2008 until he gets time to heal and innings under his belt. I know some pitchers have done well in the pen the first year back from TJ, then they go back to the rotation 2 years after surgery.
Travis Wood is the best pitching prospect we have. If anyone comes from AAA it should be him. No way I want Maloney, Ramirez,etc to be counted on as a rotation arm. I also don't want someone like Lehr, Wells, etc.
I would prefer Wood start 2010 in AAA giving us depth.
If 2010 goes sour then Bronson goes at the deadline and Wood takes his place. If 2010 goes well & Wood pitches well, thats a nice problem to have.
There are a few free agents of interest. Lackey, Harden, Doug Davis, Randy Wolf.
A trade is possible. One problem here is that we don't have that much to trade and we are going to have to get a SS via this route.
I would like the Reds to go after the best type B free agent arm available (we won't know who is a type A until after the season).
The 2010 rotation could be:
The 2011 rotation could then be:
Possibly Harang (Reds have 2011 option)
Wood or even Leake