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View Poll Results: What do you want to see from Stubbs going forward?

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  • His current .760 OPS is just fine

    22 24.72%
  • Would like to see a higher OBP, even at expense of some SLG

    51 57.30%
  • Would like to see the SLG continue to climb

    2 2.25%
  • Not satisfied with a .760 OPS

    4 4.49%
  • Slightly lower than .760 would still be justifed by defense

    10 11.24%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #46
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

    I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

    What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

    And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Let me repeat that.

    The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

    And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.
    This is the best point to refute the idea that Stubbs has power.

    Big deal, he's hit 7 HRs, but he's hit next to no doubles.

    Of his 31 hits, only 10 are extra base hits. As you see the counting stats increase, you'll see Stubbs hit more singles and less HR, but hopefully more 2B.

    Hopefully, the key part of that last sentence. If Stubbs doesn't start to somehow drive the ball in gaps, then we'll see a CF that will hit singles and the occasional HR.

    Color me very unimpressed.

    As TRF said, we need bats to make up for Janish. Drew Stubbs doesn't swing that bat we need.

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  3. #47
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Yeah, and I want to be 16 again.

    Stubbs needs to be evaluated based on who he is, not who he isn't. First Lincecum, now Cameron, eh?
    So why is everyone pretending Stubbs has power?

    Let's evaluate him on what he's done as a professional, both minors and majors, as opposed to what we want him do.

    Sounds fair, no?

  4. #48
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I'd like to see a poll comparing the future of CF between Stubbs and a Dickerson/Heisey platoon. I'd lean toward Dickerson/Heisey for the offense and cost-effectiveness. But I know GMs don't think that way, full-time players make for bigger names.

  5. #49
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Drew Stubbs

    a few weeks ago i wanted the Reds to pencil in a Dickerson/Stubbs platoon for CF in 2010 (and DFA Taveras). Chris better get back quick because Stubbs has impressed a lot. The home run swing last night was a beautifull stroke.

    I believe we should all refer to Stubbs as "Busty". those who have pounded on him as being a bust for years will be irked when he does well but even more irked if we call him Busty rather than using his real name!
    .

  6. #50
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    This is the best point to refute the idea that Stubbs has power.

    Big deal, he's hit 7 HRs, but he's hit next to no doubles.

    Of his 31 hits, only 10 are extra base hits. As you see the counting stats increase, you'll see Stubbs hit more singles and less HR, but hopefully more 2B.

    Hopefully, the key part of that last sentence. If Stubbs doesn't start to somehow drive the ball in gaps, then we'll see a CF that will hit singles and the occasional HR.

    Color me very unimpressed.

    As TRF said, we need bats to make up for Janish. Drew Stubbs doesn't swing that bat we need.
    Yet, he has displayed the ability to hit doubles in the minors (nearly 6% 2B rate). So if you're going to bust on him for doing something that he didn't yet display in the minors, give him credit for what he did do, even if he's not doing a ton of it now.

    You know what they say though... minor league doubles become major league homers. I do believe this is true. Perhaps not in this short order. And perhaps there is still plenty of noise from the limited sample. But what's transpiring right now is really not surprising. This is what has been predicted for a few years by scouts and those that have watched Stubbs closely.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #51
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Stubbs has power. Always has had. He's 6-4 and over 200 pounds. The question is whether he will consistently hit for power. I'm with JoJo on this one. Stubbs has a lot of minor league ABs that contradict the few weeks of pop we've seen from him. He really hasn't had sustained success above AA. Last year he had a rousing cup of coffee in AAA with a .293/.354/.480/.834 line in 75 ABs. He followed it up with .268/.353/.360/.713 in 450+ PAs this year. If this was a continuation of a fine minor league season, I'd be ready to hand him the job. But he was awful with that .360 slugging percentage and its not a continuation. It just may be an abberation instead. I'd like to see this carry over for a couple months in AAA in 2010 before giving him the job. I think a Dickerson/Stubbs platoon would be the best thing for the Reds in 2010, but its probably in Stubbs best interest to go down and tear up AAA first.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #52
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I agree with everyone talking about a small sample size, and 123 AB's is far too few to draw any conclusions about anyone's ability to do anything consistently.

    However...

    I sincerely doubt that there have been many, if any major league players, who have hit 7 home runs in 123 AB's, and then never showed any power any other time, especially this early in their career. I am sure there were guys who hit 7 home runs in 123 AB's and then never hit at that pace ever again, but I would have to think that anyone who did, never hit less than 10 in a season, or probably even 15.

    In my opinion, a streak of homers is unlike any other streak. It's pretty common for a hitter to hit .400, or drive in 30 runs, or get 30 walks during 123 AB's, but a lot of that can be due to luck, and never repeated. Bloops fall in, the guys ahead of you get on at a great rate, the pitchers you face are wild... But there is very little luck involved in hitting a home run. Maybe some favorable winds, small ballparks, some grooved fastballs, but for the most part, hitting a home run is all skill. If you hit 7 homers in 123 AB's, then you have the skill to hit homers in the majors, maybe just not at the same rate.

    Let me put it another way. There is no way in H. E double hockey sticks that Juan Castro, Willie Taveras, Paul Janish, Ryan Freel, Ryan Hanigan, Paul Bako or Jeff Keppinger could ever hit 7 homers in 123 AB's. While it may not be that impressive to be better than that group, all have had success in the majors, and some of the Stubbs detractors on this board are still arguing that Stubbs will not be any more successful than the guys on this list.

    At the very least, I think we have to conclude that Drew Stubbs does have power. The question is, can he show this power on a consistent basis?
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  9. #53
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Stubbs 09: 7 HR in 123 ABS. A HR in 5.6% of the ABs.

    Dickerson 08: 6 HR in 102 ABs. A HR in 5.9% of his ABs.

    Dickerson, 6-3 and 230 pounds, will never be a power hitter IMO. Why should we assume Stubbs will?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #54
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Who's setting the bar low? In his first month or so in the big leagues he's less than 50 pts from .800. We all say he needs to improve his game. Who's to say that he can't get his OPS up to .800? I think he has skills that can improve his game; conversely I'm not so so sure how much Janish can improve his. At this point I'm more interested in evaluating Stubbs' skill set than evaluating his numbers. I like what I see from his skill set
    You are saying he is just 50 points away from .800. I say small sample, and what he's doing RIGHT NOW, he's never done in his professional career.

    Does it mean he can't? I really don't know, but doug's .475 SLG prediction is waaaay out of whack with his career thus far.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #55
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Stubbs 09: 7 HR in 123 ABS. A HR in 5.6% of the ABs.

    Dickerson 08: 6 HR in 102 ABs. A HR in 5.9% of his ABs.

    Dickerson, 6-3 and 230 pounds, will never be a power hitter IMO. Why should we assume Stubbs will?
    I doubt Stubbs will be a power hitter. But he should show enough power that if he develops other parts of his game, he will be a solid major league hitter, just like Dickerson has so far shown that he is.

    I'm still skeptical about Stubbs long term future as a hitter, just as I was skeptical of Dickerson's after his hot month last season. I just think that Stubbs has shown that he has the power and the ability to hit for power to develop into a good hitter. I could be wrong, but it seems like some on this board are arguing otherwise.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  12. #56
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I don't know about Dickerson alone, but I'd take a Dickerson/Heisey platoon over Stubbs for the long haul.

  13. #57
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    but doug's .475 SLG prediction is waaaay out of whack with his career thus far.
    Potentially he could do that. He has the po-ten-tial.

  14. #58
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    This whole Stubbs discussion comes down to two camps:

    1) Those that project stats

    2) Those that gauge skills as observed

    What neither one of these knows is when will he peak? Will he continue to get better as he approaches 30 (like Paul O'Neill) or will he peak at age 24 (like Austin Kearns or Willie Greene)? That's the question that will determine how good he becomes.

    For now I'd like to see Dusty continue to play him and let him compete for playing time next Spring. I sure don't want to see 37 yr old Mike Cameron in CF next year

  15. #59
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I don't know. Stubbs is going to be 25 in a few days and he has never had a SLG near .475 over a season as a pro...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #60
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I don't know. Stubbs is going to be 25 in a few days and he has never had a SLG near .475 over a season as a pro...
    Sure, but he also hasn't been using his current swing for all that long either.


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