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View Poll Results: What do you want to see from Stubbs going forward?

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  • His current .760 OPS is just fine

    22 24.72%
  • Would like to see a higher OBP, even at expense of some SLG

    51 57.30%
  • Would like to see the SLG continue to climb

    2 2.25%
  • Not satisfied with a .760 OPS

    4 4.49%
  • Slightly lower than .760 would still be justifed by defense

    10 11.24%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #16
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I agree. The first thing I want to see from him is to learn to lay off the unhittable curveballs out of the strike zone. This alone will raise his OBP. The idealistic goal is to learn to actually hit a curveball but that is a skill that many players never learn.

    I'm glad that we can finally put to bed his "no power" stick. He has proven that he does "have pop" in his bat
    I'd be down with him laying off all unhittable pitches out of the strike zone!



    I'd like to see him keep slugging at his current clip.

    One thing's for sure, that dude is FAST.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #17
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

    I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

    What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

    And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Let me repeat that.

    The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

    And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #18
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    he hasn't proven that he has power.
    You are in denial.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #19
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Let me repeat that.

    The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

    And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.
    Have you seen the ball jump off his bat? Have you witnessed very good bat speed? Those are things I use to judge a guy's power. In fact every game you get watch Stubbs and Janish right after one another. Janish's bat does not possess the speed that Stubbs' does nor does the ball "jump" off his bat like it does w/ Stubbs. I don't have to look at any minor league stats to see that Stubbs has pop in his bat. Whereas I do not look for Janish to ever develop power. He just doesn't have the bat speed.

    To what do you attribute his MLB power numbers?

  6. #20
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

    I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

    What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

    And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Let me repeat that.

    The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

    And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.
    A CF that posts an OPS north of .800 with an average or better than average glove is getting into elite territory. Not too many of those guys exist.

  7. #21
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    If you can guarantee me a full season of .760 or better OPS and continued plus defense (possibly gold glove level) in CF, he can play until his legs fall off as far as I'm concerned.

    As far as OBP / SLG splits go -- he'll start seeing less grooved fastballs in his hitting zones once pitchers have video to watch and charts/tendencies to read. Stubbs has always shown good pitch recognition ability in the minors. I expect the HRs to level off, but the OBP to rise as he gets more balls from pitchers and fewer pitches in his hitting zones.

    This is all I care about when it comes to Stubbs "power". I don't care if he hits 5-10-15 or 20 homers a year, that will all be a bonus. But he has shown that if you grove a pitch, he will punish you for it. This might be the limit of his power, but it is enough for him to be a successful MLB hitter.

    That is essential for every major league hitter. As Caveat pointed out, once a hitter proves his has this ability, pitchers are more careful with him. This may lead to a decrease in power, but it will lead to an increase in walks and singles if the hitter has good plate discipline, and thus higher OBP. Players like Taveras, Castro and Janish have shown how difficult it is to hit over a full season without this power.

    In the minors, Stubbs' numbers did not reveal this power, although people who saw him said he had it. That is why I am very encouraged by this show of power at the MLB level. It validates what the scouts were saying, that the stats were not. This was the one issue that I had with Stubbs, and am glad to see that it is not much of an issue.

    Now Stubbs may not ever develop the plate discipline needed to be that solid MLB hitter, but it is nice to see that if he does develop it, he has the power to become one.
    Last edited by TheNext44; 09-17-2009 at 02:35 PM.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  8. #22
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    A CF that posts an OPS north of .800 with an average or better than average glove is getting into elite territory. Not too many of those guys exist.
    And I for one am sick of the dreck that has been run out there.

    The Reds had Mike Cameron once. I want another one.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  9. #23
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.

    I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.

    What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.

    And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Let me repeat that.

    The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.

    Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.

    And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.
    Certainly well within your rights to hold those opinions.

    I sort of think, though, that expecting someone to carry an OPS north of 800 at that position is unrealistic. At least, if it's not unrealistic it's somewhat unfair.

    This is a position, where the starters in aggregate, are averaging 340/430/770 as splits this year. Only 9 of 30 starters are carrying OPS over 800 and only three have OPS's over 850.

    Code:
    TEAM	NAME 		        OPS
    NYM	Carlos Beltran		0.945
    LAA	Torii Hunter		0.926
    LAD	Matt Kemp		0.865
    ATL	Nate McLouth		0.826
    PHI	Shane Victorino		0.820
    OAK	Rajai Davis		0.808
    MIL	Mike Cameron		0.801
    PIT	Andrew McCutchen	0.801
    TEX	Marlon Byrd		0.800
    BAL	Adam Jones		0.792
    DET	Curtis Granderson	0.792
    CHN	Kosuke Fukudome		0.791
    CLE	Grady Sizemore		0.788
    COL	Dexter Fowler		0.782
    HOU	Michael Bourn		0.765
    BOS	Jacoby Ellsbury		0.764
    CHA	Scott Podsednik		0.764
    NYY	Melky Cabrera		0.763
    CIN	Drew Stubbs		0.758
    WAS	Nyjer Morgan		0.757
    SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.751
    SF	Aaron Rowand		0.750
    STL	Colby Rasmus		0.733
    TOR	Vernon Wells		0.724
    ARI	Chris Young		0.707
    KC	Mitch Maier		0.696
    SD	Tony Gwynn Jr.		0.670
    TB	B.J. Upton		0.667
    FLA	Cameron Maybin		0.660
    MIN	Carlos Gomez		0.639
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  10. #24
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    The Reds had Mike Cameron once. I want another one.
    Yeah, and I want to be 16 again.

    Stubbs needs to be evaluated based on who he is, not who he isn't. First Lincecum, now Cameron, eh?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #25
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    This is all I care about when it comes to Stubbs "power". I don't care if he hits 5-10-15 or 20 homers a year, that will all be a bonus. But he has shown that if you grove a pitch, he will punish you for it. This might be the limit of his power, but it is enough for him to be a successful MLB hitter.

    That is essential for every major league hitter. As Caveat pointed out, once a hitter proves his has this ability, pitchers are more careful with him. This may lead to a decrease in power, but it will lead to an increase in walks and singles if the hitter has good plate discipline, and thus higher OBP. Players like Taveras, Castro and Janish have difficult it is to hit over a full season without this power.

    In the minors, Stubbs' numbers did not reveal this power, although people who saw him said he had it. That is why I am very encouraged by this show of power at the MLB level. It validates what the scouts were saying, that the stats were not. This was the one issue that I had with Stubbs, and am glad to see that it is not much of an issue.

    Now Stubbs may not ever develop the plate discipline needed to be that solid MLB hitter, but it is nice to see that if he does develop it, he has the power to become one.
    This power he is displaying does not show he has power as a hitter. It means he is on a hot streak. I don't see the doubles (7HR to 2 doubles is an odd ratio) I don't see the skill on the basepaths. I see the speed, just not the SB prowess.

    See, pitchers at every, EVERY level figured Stubbs out. It's possible that veteran MLB pitchers have too little respect for him. And he's done a decent job of jerking one out, but it doesn't pass the sniff test that AA/AAA/AFL pitchers OWNED him while MLB pitchers are getting a neck strain.

    One of these seasons is not like the others.

    That said, his progression as a hitter could have continued under Jacoby. After all look at how many other Reds hitters have thrived under him.

    wait...
    Suck it up cupcake.

  12. #26
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Yeah, and I want to be 16 again.

    Stubbs needs to be evaluated based on who he is, not who he isn't. First Lincecum, now Cameron, eh?
    16 sucked. 22 was ok though...
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #27
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Certainly well within your rights to hold those opinions.

    I sort of think, though, that expecting someone to carry an OPS north of 800 at that position is unrealistic. At least, if it's not unrealistic it's somewhat unfair.

    This is a position, where the starters in aggregate, are averaging 340/430/770 as splits this year. Only 9 of 30 starters are carrying OPS over 800 and only three have OPS's over 850.

    Code:
    TEAM	NAME 		        OPS
    NYM	Carlos Beltran		0.945
    LAA	Torii Hunter		0.926
    LAD	Matt Kemp		0.865
    ATL	Nate McLouth		0.826
    PHI	Shane Victorino		0.820
    OAK	Rajai Davis		0.808
    MIL	Mike Cameron		0.801
    PIT	Andrew McCutchen	0.801
    TEX	Marlon Byrd		0.800
    BAL	Adam Jones		0.792
    DET	Curtis Granderson	0.792
    CHN	Kosuke Fukudome		0.791
    CLE	Grady Sizemore		0.788
    COL	Dexter Fowler		0.782
    HOU	Michael Bourn		0.765
    BOS	Jacoby Ellsbury		0.764
    CHA	Scott Podsednik		0.764
    NYY	Melky Cabrera		0.763
    CIN	Drew Stubbs		0.758
    WAS	Nyjer Morgan		0.757
    SEA	Franklin Gutierrez	0.751
    SF	Aaron Rowand		0.750
    STL	Colby Rasmus		0.733
    TOR	Vernon Wells		0.724
    ARI	Chris Young		0.707
    KC	Mitch Maier		0.696
    SD	Tony Gwynn Jr.		0.670
    TB	B.J. Upton		0.667
    FLA	Cameron Maybin		0.660
    MIN	Carlos Gomez		0.639
    hmm you left out a few things. Like this is a down year for sizemore who has a career .851 OPS, Granderson with a career .832. Jones and Fukudome are in just their second full seasons and both improved dramatically at the plate. Throw in BJ Upton, who is in a weird downward spiral, but is still younger than Stubbs and has an .894 OPS season under his belt. That's a number Stubbs will likely never even sniff.

    9 guys over .800, five within spitting distance, and all five are likely to hit over .800 multiple times when their careers are over.

    Almost half of the regular CF's

    I want the Reds in that half. that's where we ALL should want the Reds and it isn't unrealistic.

    So that's 14, 15 if you count Upton, which I do, with .800 OPS potential
    Last edited by TRF; 09-17-2009 at 02:49 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #28
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    hmm you left out a few things. Like this is a down year for sizemore who has a career .851 OPS, Granderson with a career .832. Jones and Fukudome are in just their second full seasons and both improved dramatically at the plate. Throw in BJ Upton, who is in a weird downward spiral, but is still younger than Stubbs and has an .894 OPS season under his belt. That's a number Stubbs will likely never even sniff.

    9 guys over .800, five within spitting distance, and all five are likely to hit over .800 multiple times when their careers are over.

    Almost half of the regular CF's

    I want the Reds in that half. that's where we ALL should want the Reds and it isn't unrealistic.

    So that's 14, 15 if you count Upton, which I do, with .800 OPS potential
    I didn't really leave anything out. Because if we play that game, you could argue many of those guys would also not consistently carry 800 that are over it. In any given year, you're going to find that these numbers are pretty consistent with the bulk of starting Major League centerfielders.

    A lot of guys have 800 OPS "potential." But having that potential and actually doing it on an annual basis are two very different things.

    An 800 OPS for this position really is an exception more than a rule.

    I would love to see Stubbs be a perennial 800 OPS CF. It's certainly not a bad goal to have for him. I just think goals and expectations are two different things. I want him to do that, I just don't feel it's proper to expect it. For purpose of expectation, 760-800 would be more than plenty to make him extremely valuable with his glove. If he does exceed that, it's gravy.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #29
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    This power he is displaying does not show he has power as a hitter. It means he is on a hot streak. I don't see the doubles (7HR to 2 doubles is an odd ratio) I don't see the skill on the basepaths. I see the speed, just not the SB prowess.

    See, pitchers at every, EVERY level figured Stubbs out. It's possible that veteran MLB pitchers have too little respect for him. And he's done a decent job of jerking one out, but it doesn't pass the sniff test that AA/AAA/AFL pitchers OWNED him while MLB pitchers are getting a neck strain.

    One of these seasons is not like the others.

    That said, his progression as a hitter could have continued under Jacoby. After all look at how many other Reds hitters have thrived under him.

    wait...
    I understand your skepticism. His minor league numbers don't show much power. It's funny you mention his lack of doubles because my thinking is that his HRs will drop off but his doubles/triples will increase.

    He has the skills to hit for power if not the numbers. Guys like Pete Rose and Ichiro have power skills but not the power numbers. At this point that's all I'm looking at.

  16. #30
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I'm gonna need at least 4,000 big league ab's before I can make any accurate projections.


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