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View Poll Results: What do you want to see from Stubbs going forward?

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  • His current .760 OPS is just fine

    22 24.72%
  • Would like to see a higher OBP, even at expense of some SLG

    51 57.30%
  • Would like to see the SLG continue to climb

    2 2.25%
  • Not satisfied with a .760 OPS

    4 4.49%
  • Slightly lower than .760 would still be justifed by defense

    10 11.24%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #1
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Drew Stubbs

    I'm curious what people want to see from Stubbs going forward, relative to his current Major League rates. He's hitting a ton of homers (5.3% HR), striking out a ton (28%) and walking only a portion of what he has shown in the minors (6.8%). He's stolen six bases, though been caught four times. Add it all up and he has a somewhat uncharacteristically low .303 OBP, though is making up for it with a high slugging (.455).

    In total, it amounts to a positional average above that of a normal CF at .760 while displaying gold-glove caliber defense. So describe the makeup of Stubbs' stats going forward.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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  3. #2
    Member 11larkin11's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I think he will start to adjust, and he has somewhat already since being up. His BB rate will go up and his K rate will drop slightly, but not all that much. His power will also not be sustained at this level, but I think he's finally found his 20 HR a year swing.
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  4. #3
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by 11larkin11 View Post
    I think he will start to adjust, and he has somewhat already since being up. His BB rate will go up and his K rate will drop slightly, but not all that much. His power will also not be sustained at this level, but I think he's finally found his 20 HR a year swing.
    I also tend to think his HR swing is legit. Not that there is not plenty of reasons to be skeptical, but it kind of feels like this is something to stay. I just really, really hope he cuts down on the strikeouts. Pitch selection would go a long way in replacing some of those K's with walks. If he maintains near this home run pace, but gets on base to a .360 clip, the Reds have a star on their hands.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  5. #4
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I would prefer to see Stubbs trade in some slugging for OBP. Obviously, it's not as easy as him flipping a switch, but the OBP is much more valuable in the lead-off spot than slugging. That being said, if Stubbs continues to hit HRs perhaps this will help him to sustain his OBP and pitchers may be less willing to throw him strikes which may even raise his OBP.

    If he were to sustain this stat line for the rest of his career, I believe he should start every day, but there is no way I want a .300 OBP in the lead-off spot. If he stays a .300/.450/.750 hitter his entire career, the 7 or 8 spot would serve him well. Gotta love that defense though.

  6. #5
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I see the best defensive CF we've had since Cameron or Davis.

    I see a bat that has potential and isn't as long as it was early in AAA this season.

    I see a guy that earned his shot and is making the most of it. He's the best option we have as well, so I think he's gotta stick.

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  7. #6
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    If Stubbs can post an OPS of .760 with his defense (which I'm assuming will be significantly plus), he'll be a borderline all-star (4 WAR/yr player). His only problem in that scenario would be that the majors are currently packed with exceptional centerfielders so he might not get national recognition. You can guess how I voted....
    Last edited by jojo; 09-17-2009 at 01:01 PM.
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  8. #7
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    I would prefer to see Stubbs trade in some slugging for OBP. Obviously, it's not as easy as him flipping a switch, but the OBP is much more valuable in the lead-off spot than slugging. That being said, if Stubbs continues to hit HRs perhaps this will help him to sustain his OBP and pitchers may be less willing to throw him strikes which may even raise his OBP.

    If he were to sustain this stat line for the rest of his career, I believe he should start every day, but there is no way I want a .300 OBP in the lead-off spot. If he stays a .300/.450/.750 hitter his entire career, the 7 or 8 spot would serve him well. Gotta love that defense though.
    Agreed. Ideally, if he can improve the On-Base percentage without losing any power, then the more the merrier. But I'm happy with a .760 OPS if he can bring up the rate of avoiding outs. If he keeps the power and brings up the OBP (which would put him over an .800 OPS), that's even better.

    I don't normally crave so much for a prototypical lead-off guy. But after several years of sheer hilarity at the top of the Reds' order, I pine for seeing a legit .360-.400 OBP speedster up there as a table-setter. Stubbs has a chance to fit that description (while adding quite a bit of pop to boot).
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  9. #8
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I really like the Curtis Granderson comp I saw mentioned earlier. Mike Cameron is of course the other one that makes all kinds of sense, right down to the build. What's interesting about both of those guys is that they didn't become every day players until their mid 20's, like Stubbs. It would seem from that very small sample that this type of player takes a little longer to mature.

    The strike out rate isn't great, but it doesn't overly concern me when you consider the following players strike out more than 25% of the time: Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, Brad Hawpe, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis. The real trick, and this applies to Cameron and Gradnerson too, is keeping that walk rate north of 10% to keep the OBP up.

    I do think the power we're seeing from him is real -- or perhaps more accurately, not a fluke. I don't think he's going to hit 35 HR like he's on pace for, but 25 during his peak wouldn't surprise me, with 15-20 on a regular basis. This isn't like Jeff Keppinger hitting 2 HR in a game. Stubbs has legitimate power even if he's not fully learned how to put it use regularly yet.

    Long term, I think we'll see something like .260/.350/.450, 15-20 homers and 30-40 steals with a good amount of that slugging coming from doubles and triples and with a good number of infield singles to keep his average in a respectable place.

    Obviously this is all upside sort of talk and I fully realize that it's possible pitchers exploit holes in his swing and he's never able to adjust. But I like what I'm seeing so far and would be happy to eat crow about my historical negativity towards him...
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  10. #9
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I don't normally crave so much for a prototypical lead-off guy. But after several years of sheer hilarity at the top of the Reds' order, I pine for seeing a legit .360-.400 OBP speedster up there as a table-setter. Stubbs has a chance to fit that description (while adding quite a bit of pop to boot).
    I'm in the same boat re: the traditional lead-off type. At the same time, we've had manager after manager that follows the traditional baseball norm where the speedy guy bats first. If Stubbs can get on base at that clip, the team only benefits. I'm skeptically optimistic about him. He could be a bright spot going forward. Of course, then you get to the second spot in the lineup...
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  11. #10
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    At this point, better plate discipline. Otherwise, I've enjoyed watching him play.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  12. #11
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    If you can guarantee me a full season of .760 or better OPS and continued plus defense (possibly gold glove level) in CF, he can play until his legs fall off as far as I'm concerned.

    As far as OBP / SLG splits go -- he'll start seeing less grooved fastballs in his hitting zones once pitchers have video to watch and charts/tendencies to read. Stubbs has always shown good pitch recognition ability in the minors. I expect the HRs to level off, but the OBP to rise as he gets more balls from pitchers and fewer pitches in his hitting zones.
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  13. #12
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    At this point, better plate discipline. Otherwise, I've enjoyed watching him play.
    I think he actually almsot has too much discipline. I think rather, he needs to be more selective.

    That may seem like picking nits, but I think there's a fine line. Rather than flat out tkaing every 3-1 pitch he works the count to, he should be up there looking for a good pitch to hit.

    I've just noticed a few at-bats where he goes up there looking to walk. Which is a poor approach in my opinion. Stubbs needs to be willing to take a walk, as in, take the balls he does get. But it's not advantageous to let easy pitches down the middle go for strikes when he could be putting some good swings on them. I've noticed a few at-bats where he has gotten ahead, taken some hittable pitchers, and then fished for a pitch that could have been low for a ball, but he swung because it probably looked like a potential strike 3 looking out of the pitcher's hand. Pitches can be very difficult to read, so for a guy like Stubbs, avoiding 2 strike counts in important.

    I think the last week or so, he's been a little better in this area. The walks will come since he is a very disciplined hitter. But I think he can very well turn some K's into hits (which is usually not a normal practice) by being more aggressive when ahead in the count.

  14. #13
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Long term, I think we'll see something like .260/.350/.450, 15-20 homers and 30-40 steals with a good amount of that slugging coming from doubles and triples and with a good number of infield singles to keep his average in a respectable place.

    Obviously this is all upside sort of talk and I fully realize that it's possible pitchers exploit holes in his swing and he's never able to adjust. But I like what I'm seeing so far and would be happy to eat crow about my historical negativity towards him...
    If Stubbs puts up a line similar to what you have mentioned, he becomes very similar to Torii Hunter. Which would be a very good thing if you ask me. Given that 1/2 of the game Stubbs will play will be at GABP I expect that his HR totals will be somewhere in the 20-30 range.

    The main thing I would like to see Stubbs improve is his contact skills. His ability to foul a tough pitch off. His ability to put the bat on the ball on a pitchers pitch. Stubbs has the raw speed that if he puts the ball on the ground, especially to the left side, he has the ability to reach base. He already has a very good eye, and the ability to foul off more pitches would increase in BB's.

    If Stubbs is able to sustain a line around .265/.350/.450 he may just become a perennial all star. It all depends on where his defensive reputation goes, where his yearly stolen base output is, and where his HR ability goes.

  15. #14
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I think he actually almsot has too much discipline. I think rather, he needs to be more selective.

    That may seem like picking nits, but I think there's a fine line. Rather than flat out tkaing every 3-1 pitch he works the count to, he should be up there looking for a good pitch to hit.

    I've just noticed a few at-bats where he goes up there looking to walk. Which is a poor approach in my opinion. Stubbs needs to be willing to take a walk, as in, take the balls he does get. But it's not advantageous to let easy pitches down the middle go for strikes when he could be putting some good swings on them. I've noticed a few at-bats where he has gotten ahead, taken some hittable pitchers, and then fished for a pitch that could have been low for a ball, but he swung because it probably looked like a potential strike 3 looking out of the pitcher's hand. Pitches can be very difficult to read, so for a guy like Stubbs, avoiding 2 strike counts in important.

    I think the last week or so, he's been a little better in this area. The walks will come since he is a very disciplined hitter. But I think he can very well turn some K's into hits (which is usually not a normal practice) by being more aggressive when ahead in the count.
    By plate discipline, I was trying to say "more walks/less Ks."
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #15
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    At this point, better plate discipline. Otherwise, I've enjoyed watching him play.
    I agree. The first thing I want to see from him is to learn to lay off the unhittable curveballs out of the strike zone. This alone will raise his OBP. The idealistic goal is to learn to actually hit a curveball but that is a skill that many players never learn.

    I'm glad that we can finally put to bed his "no power" stick. He has proven that he does "have pop" in his bat


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