I'm generally on the side of jojo and highlifeman with regard to minor league stats. I do believe they mean something. However, there are always two caveats for me:
Stubbs has always been projected as having power. That is something that sticks out when he goes on this kind of a tear. But moreso, while minor league stats do mean something when determining a player's ability, the important thing to remember is physical maturity and peak production does not occur until 27-29 years old most often. So minor league stats can always be expected to be improved on as a player plays more and more at this level.
In other words: minor league stats are a great starting point, but probably not the most accurate in determining a player's true skill level as an established major leaguer or, moreso, automatically assuming regression if a player starts to out-perform those rates once getting to the majors. Perhaps initially there could be some regression, but I fully believe over time, if the player is good enough to stick, you'll see improvement.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Maybe Stubbs is the RH RBI power bat for the middle of the lineup that the Reds need?
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
He got erased on a DP, but he also worked a nice walk in the 8th as well.
Stubbs is awesome.
He's having an oddly fantastic MLB debut. I hope he has an amazing year as the starter in CF in 2010.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
Everyone in this debate believes they mean something.I'm generally on the side of jojo and highlifeman with regard to minor league stats. I do believe they mean something.
The question is, do they mean everything re: Stubbs?
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
Stubbs' performance shows you what happens when you let a guy mature in the minors.
22 and 23 year olds are usually going to struggle breaking in. Bailey. Bruce. Maybe Francisco. Eventually they will get there, but they have been given major league trials very young.
Stubbs is almost 25. He played big time college ball at Texas and then worked through the minors. He had almost a full year at AAA.
He has tremendous athletic ability, but the real key is that he's readier than some of the others. He's showing it.
His minor league numbers mean zero to me. He always had the power, but obviously shortened up, working on his contact, in the high minors. Now he's back to his usual style and the power is coming through.
I give Doug Dirt credit. He always stuck with Stubbs in the minor league forum. When you consider Stubbs' fielding prowess, this is quite a good young player.
Last edited by Kc61; 09-19-2009 at 11:13 PM.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
I guess I need to start trashing his ridiculously crappy MLB OBP so that he remembers how to find 1B via other ways than his crappy AVG.
Please stop watching strikes. Swing at stuff in the zone, rather than let it go by, and also improve your BB:K ratio.
PS - While you're at it, would it kill you to hit more doubles?
As Stubbs continues to hit HR, I hear the people (including myself) keep repeating "small sample size, small sample size, small sample size..." Actually, I'm starting to think that maybe the scouts were right all along: Stubbs' power is legit and it is showing up now that he's no longer shortening his swing. Maybe all of this statistical performance and projection stuff is crap? Just sayin' it--not really believin' it.
"Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013