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View Poll Results: What do you want to see from Stubbs going forward?

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  • His current .760 OPS is just fine

    22 24.72%
  • Would like to see a higher OBP, even at expense of some SLG

    51 57.30%
  • Would like to see the SLG continue to climb

    2 2.25%
  • Not satisfied with a .760 OPS

    4 4.49%
  • Slightly lower than .760 would still be justifed by defense

    10 11.24%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #196
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Offensive game may be an asset, such a ringing endorsement of Young Stubbs' offensive abilities...

    Stubbs isn't a 20 HR guy, but I'm hoping more than anything that he can get his OBP North of .350 so that he does actually provide some offensive value and we can put his offensive game in the asset category.

    If Stubbs doesn't improve his OBP, we'll watch that SLG disappear as well, and then he'll just be a rangey gloveman. Whoopie.

    Rangey gloveman with no bat = Corey Patterson
    That is what the anti-Stubbs bandwagon has been trumpeting since he hit his first HR with the Reds. Right now he is on pace for a 41 HR season, while that isn't likely to happen, I don't see any reason why he can't become a 20 HR guy.

    With 8 hrs in 32 games I think pitchers will begin to pitch him a little more cautiously. When that happens his OBP is going to increase. I don't think it is all that unrealistic to expect that to happen.

    Don't really see any Corey Patterson comparisons, except for the anti-Stubbs bandwagon who find it fun to compare him to one of the worst players in baseball.

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  3. #197
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Nothing like hanging onto our Fool's Gold, hoping it becomes the real thing.
    I don't know, I'm kinda happy they didn't trade Bailey for Dontrelle Willis. How about you?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  4. #198
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    So Stubbs needs to reach this plateau?

    4 guys in the past 40 years have that sort of random number attached to a season, 4 guys... and none without those career rates.

    Code:
    SEASON
    1969-2008
    OBA BETWEEN .375 AND .385
    SLG BETWEEN .420 AND .440
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .285 AND .295
    
    RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR    RC/G      OBA      SLG      AVG    
    1    Brian Roberts            2007     6.60     .377     .432     .290   
    2    Steve Kemp               1982     6.07     .381     .428     .286   
    3    Keith Hernandez          1987     5.92     .377     .436     .290   
    4    Willie Crawford          1974     5.78     .376     .432     .295

  5. #199
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    The Rays can develop young talent, the Reds cannot.

    I'll take a chance on the Rays' sloppy seconds.

    Although I'm sure I would easily get pissed off watching balls go over Upton's head in CF b/c he plays too damn shallow and thinks he can break back and catch stuff over his head.
    I don't know if that's just him, or a team philosophy type of thing, because almost everyone they stick in CF when he's out, and some of their RFers, all seem to get burned playing shallow a lot, too.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  6. #200
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Sure. an .800+ OPS on average. I keep reading that Stubbs ceiling is Mike Cameron, when he's never really hit as well as Cameron at any level. But supposedly Cameron is his ceiling. OK.

    From what I have seen, and this ridiculously hot September notwithstanding, Stubbs is more of a .730 OPS guy, and possibly worse. If the optimists want to define his ceiling as Cameron, what's his floor? I say it's Corey Patterson. Similar D, both prone to lots of K's. Stubbs has a better ability (by far) to take a walk, both contact challenged. Not a perfect comp, but it is still a pretty low floor.
    OPS combines a lot of stats that don't involve power. Corey Patterson was not Willy Taveras in the power dept. If you insist on an .800 OPS then you also want a high OBP. I'll grant you that a decent OBP will be Stubbs biggest challenge. He could very well hit a few HRs and still have a horrible OPS due to a sorry OBP.

    You do better when you talk about Stubbs the complete package as opposed to just his power numbers.
    Last edited by Sea Ray; 09-21-2009 at 10:52 AM.

  7. #201
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    That is what the anti-Stubbs bandwagon has been trumpeting since he hit his first HR with the Reds. Right now he is on pace for a 41 HR season, while that isn't likely to happen, I don't see any reason why he can't become a 20 HR guy.

    With 8 hrs in 32 games I think pitchers will begin to pitch him a little more cautiously. When that happens his OBP is going to increase. I don't think it is all that unrealistic to expect that to happen.

    Don't really see any Corey Patterson comparisons, except for the anti-Stubbs bandwagon who find it fun to compare him to one of the worst players in baseball.

    Rangey glovemen with contact issues.

    Patterson had more power, Stubbs has better plate discipline.

    While they aren't a 100% comp, they aren't as far from each other as you want to believe.

  8. #202
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I don't know, I'm kinda happy they didn't trade Bailey for Dontrelle Willis. How about you?
    Hindsight is 20/20, no?

    At the time, I wish they had.

  9. #203
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    So, if Stubbs does not reach this bar, one you never would have anticipated he could reach, you'll be dissatisfied with his play?
    Those are the numbers i want from any CF. I don't give a crap what the name is on the back of the jersey If it is Stubbs, great, if not, find someone that will.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    OPS combines a lot of stats that don't involve power. Corey Patterson was not Willy Taveras in the power dept. If you insist on an .800 OPS then you also want a high OBP. I'll grant you that a decent OBP will be Stubbs biggest challenge. He could very well hit a few HRs and still have a hirrible OPS due to a sorry OBP.

    You do better when you talk about Stubbs the complete package as opposed to just his power numbers.
    No it doesn't. OPS is 2 stats, OBP and SLG. SLG is power. I've maintained that Stubbs know how to not swing at bad pitches, but throughout his entire minor league career, he hasn't done much with pitches in the zone. He K's a lot, but has never displayed enough power to keep pitchers honest. His career also shows hot starts when he gets to a new level, followed by a severe drop in numbers. Not a little drop, a MASSIVE drop. This suggests his ability to make adjustments is slower than other players, certainly slower than the opposing pitchers facing him.


    And woy, while I'd for it to be .380/.420, I'm realistic.even .350 would be such a monumental improvement in the OBP from the Reds leadoff hitter, that I'd be ecstatic. But I'd want him to SLG more. I want an .800+ OPS bat in CF, and if 13 other teams can have one, so can the Reds.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  10. #204
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Those are the numbers i want from any CF. I don't give a crap what the name is on the back of the jersey If it is Stubbs, great, if not, find someone that will.
    I hope, before you go on making yourself miserable, that you've checked out WOY's list all players who have achieved that level of player in the last 4 decades.

    Just because you want Santa Claus to give you a new car doesn't mean you should get one.

    It's sad. This kid's an exciting player with a real range of plus tools. Not a finished product, of course, because he's 24. But I'm pretty sure if he were wearing another uniform the same posters who refuse to enjoy him as a Red would be saying that's the kind of player the Reds should target for the future.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #205
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I want an .800+ OPS bat in CF, and if 13 other teams can have one, so can the Reds.
    Do you have similar OPS thresholds in mind for all other 7 positions?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  12. #206
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Those are the numbers i want from any CF. I don't give a crap what the name is on the back of the jersey If it is Stubbs, great, if not, find someone that will.



    No it doesn't. OPS is 2 stats, OBP and SLG. SLG is power. I've maintained that Stubbs know how to not swing at bad pitches, but throughout his entire minor league career, he hasn't done much with pitches in the zone. He K's a lot, but has never displayed enough power to keep pitchers honest. His career also shows hot starts when he gets to a new level, followed by a severe drop in numbers. Not a little drop, a MASSIVE drop. This suggests his ability to make adjustments is slower than other players, certainly slower than the opposing pitchers facing him.


    And woy, while I'd for it to be .380/.420, I'm realistic.even .350 would be such a monumental improvement in the OBP from the Reds leadoff hitter, that I'd be ecstatic. But I'd want him to SLG more. I want an .800+ OPS bat in CF, and if 13 other teams can have one, so can the Reds.
    No matter the wish you'll get small samples for CF like the one below.

    Push one slide of the scale (power/OB%) and you'll get a broader group choice. The fact is most great CF's either can get on base or have power, seldom do they have both. At least from a brief eyeballing of the positions historical pattern
    Code:
    SEASON
    1969-2008
    CF
    OBA BETWEEN .340 AND .350
    SLG BETWEEN .420 AND .440
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .285 AND .295
    
    RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR    RC/G      OBA      SLG      AVG    
    1    Marquis Grissom          1994     5.51     .344     .427     .288   
    2    Brian McRae              1995     5.50     .348     .440     .288   
    3    Jose Cardenal            1970     5.28     .348     .428     .293   
    4    Randy Winn               2004     5.11     .346     .427     .286   
    5    Roberto Kelly            1994     5.09     .347     .422     .293

  13. #207
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    [/QUOTE]

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    No matter the wish you'll get small samples for CF like the one below.

    Push one slide of the scale (power/OB%) and you'll get a broader group choice. The fact is most great CF's either can get on base or have power, seldom do they have both. At least from a brief eyeballing of the positions historical pattern
    Code:
    SEASON
    1969-2008
    CF
    OBA BETWEEN .340 AND .350
    SLG BETWEEN .420 AND .440
    AVERAGE BETWEEN .285 AND .295
    
    RUNS CREATED/GAME             YEAR    RC/G      OBA      SLG      AVG    
    1    Marquis Grissom          1994     5.51     .344     .427     .288   
    2    Brian McRae              1995     5.50     .348     .440     .288   
    3    Jose Cardenal            1970     5.28     .348     .428     .293   
    4    Randy Winn               2004     5.11     .346     .427     .286   
    5    Roberto Kelly            1994     5.09     .347     .422     .293
    From earlier in this thread...

    Listed below, player and career OPS.

    • Beltran .857
    • Hunter .804 four straight years over .800 5 out of his last 6
    • Kemp .833
    • McLouth .805
    • Victorino .778 - 4 years, and he has made significant strides every year... likley .800+ from now on.
    • Rajai Davis .728 - breakout season or fluke? He's 28, so I'll say fluke and give you this one.
    • Cameron .788 - He's getting up there, but I won't be surprised at all if he finishes the season over .800 for the 7th time. He also had a .798 season too.
    • Andrew McCutchen .801 - Rookie. Minor league numbers look promising to me.
    • Marlon Byrd .759 - Blossomed at age 29. 3 straight years of .800 OPS production
    • Adam Jones .735 - Just 23 years old, I think going forward no one will be surprised by numbers north of .800. He's a potential star IMO.
    • Curtis Granderson .835 - In a strange decline, I think he's swinging for the fences a bit too much. The power is still there, but the triples are drying up. Triples are about speed not power, but he's still getting his SB's. Odd year for him.
    • Kosuke Fukudome .763 - Older player, made huge strides at the plate. Frustrating defender. spectacular at times and makes bonehead plays out of what should be routine.
    • Grady Sizemore .851 - Very much the down year for Sizemore. Injury hurt his numbers a lot. May was abysmal (he was hurt) he missed almost all of June, but every other month pretty much what you would expect.
    • Dexter Fowler .756 - Rookie. Playing in Coors certainly helps. I think this years .782 OPS will be eclipsed next year.


    That's the top 14 or so. Add in Upton, who is a talent worth giving another chance to and that makes 15. Of that 15, I throw out Fukudome (age) and Davis (fluke) as likely to post .800 OPS seasons.

    So 13 including Upton.

    And why do the Reds have to settle? This list tells me a team has a 50/50 chance right now of having a player of that caliber. Why keep setting the bar so low?
    An .800 OPS bat. It isn't too much to ask for. I'm not overly hung up on the BA, but yeah, i'd prefer it over .265.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  14. #208
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post

    No it doesn't. OPS is 2 stats, OBP and SLG. SLG is power... But I'd want him to SLG more. I want an .800+ OPS bat in CF, and if 13 other teams can have one, so can the Reds.
    What do you mean "no, it doesn't"? You just stated above that it involves OBP and slugging. OBP involves walks, BA, HBP etc. SLG involves more than power. If you go four for four with four singles your slugging percentage looks pretty impressive but you haven't shown any power.

    I'd love to have an .800 OPS center fielder too. If we can acquire a young one I'm all for it. In the meantime let's see what Stubbs and Heisey can do. That's the way small market teams do it

  15. #209
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    What do you mean "no, it doesn't"? You just stated above that it involves OBP and slugging. OBP involves walks, BA, HBP etc. SLG involves more than power. If you go four for four with four singles your slugging percentage looks pretty impressive but you haven't shown any power.

    I'd love to have an .800 OPS center fielder too. If we can acquire a young one I'm all for it. In the meantime let's see what Stubbs and Heisey can do. That's the way small market teams do it
    OBP hasn't got anything to do with BA.

    It's either you reach base or you don't. It isn't an overly complex formula, but it doesn't have jack to do with BA, as BA requires official AB's, while OBP is about PA's

    So no, it doesn't.

    And if you go 4-4 and all four are singles, then you don't have an impressive SLG, you have the very minimum SLG for someone that went 4-4. the SLG isn't what's impressive there, the OBP is.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  16. #210
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    And why would they want Taveras or Stubbs? Hell, while I'm asking questions, why would they want Bruce after his 2009?
    Really? I bet there are 29 other teams out there that wishes they had Jay Bruce. He's 22 years old, folks. Not everyone is Pujols at 22.


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