Drew Stubbs

[Highlifeman21]

I hope, before you go on making yourself miserable, that you've checked out WOY's list all players who have achieved that level of player in the last 4 decades.

Just because you want Santa Claus to give you a new car doesn't mean you should get one.

It's sad. This kid's an exciting player with a real range of plus tools. Not a finished product, of course, because he's 24. But I'm pretty sure if he were wearing another uniform the same posters who refuse to enjoy him as a Red would be saying that's the kind of player the Reds should target for the future.

It's not that I don't enjoy him as a Red, b/c I do enjoy some parts of his game. I love his D. He's got great range, seems to have great instincts, glides like a gazelle to the ball which make it look effortless, and seems like he has an above average arm for a CF (haven't seen it enough yet).

I loved that he walked in the minors. It was a great compliment to his contact issues. He never hit for any significant AVG in the minors, but at least he found 1B. He never hit for any power in the minors, so that's not something I expect from him, but I do expect him to do a better job finding 1B @ the MLB level.

It seems that now that he's going thru one of his typical hot starts at a new level, some opinions have changed to think that all of a sudden he has power, and plenty of it. I never expected him to have it, so for me this is a pleasant surprise, but I expect it to end soon, and if we give him a full season in 2010 I sure as Hell don't expect him to be a guy that'll SLG over .400. I do expect him, however, to stop watching pitches in the zone, and to increase his plate discipline to bring some BBs to the table to supplement his AVG.

If Stubbs were on another team, I wouldn't want him. His D alone isn't enough for me to say "Walt, go get Drew Stubbs!". The kid has no stick, and I want a CF with D and some stick. The thing is, we have one of those: Chris Dickerson. While Stubbs has better D than Dickerson, I prefer Dickerson's offense to Stubbs' lack thereof. If Stubbs can find 1B like Dickerson finds 1B, then I'm fine with Stubbs. But right now, Stubbs isn't, so I'm not.

[Sea Ray]

OBP hasn't got anything to do with BA.

It's either you reach base or you don't. It isn't an overly complex formula, but it doesn't have jack to do with BA, as BA requires official AB's, while OBP is about PA's

So no, it doesn't.

And if you go 4-4 and all four are singles, then you don't have an impressive SLG, you have the very minimum SLG for someone that went 4-4. the SLG isn't what's impressive there, the OBP is.

Where I come from 1.000 SLG is pretty impressive

[Highlifeman21]

Really? I bet there are 29 other teams out there that wishes they had Jay Bruce. He's 22 years old, folks. Not everyone is Pujols at 22.

I'm not giving up on Bruce, yet.

His 2010 needs to look an awful lot like his 2008, or his 2007 in the minors. If it resembles 2009 at all, then his value goes down leading into 2011, which is when we'll need him the most.

I hope Bruce joins the list of Dunn and Votto as position players successfully developed by the Reds, but right now he's not there, yet.

[bucksfan2]

OBP hasn't got anything to do with BA.

It's either you reach base or you don't. It isn't an overly complex formula, but it doesn't have jack to do with BA, as BA requires official AB's, while OBP is about PA's

So no, it doesn't.

And if you go 4-4 and all four are singles, then you don't have an impressive SLG, you have the very minimum SLG for someone that went 4-4. the SLG isn't what's impressive there, the OBP is.

A SLG of 1.000 isn't impressive?

[TRF]

Where I come from 1.000 SLG is pretty impressive

where I come from it's almost impossible to maintain hitting singles.

In fact, how often have you heard of a player going 16 for his last 16? That's just 4 days of AB's, and if he's a leadoff hitter, he'd likely have 5 PA's. assuming he never walks he'd have to go 20-20 over 4 days to keep said 1.000 SLG.

well, that would be impressive.

[OnBaseMachine]

The rookie center fielder has eight home runs since being promoted to the Reds on Aug. 19, after hitting three homers all year at Triple-A Louisville. Stubbs just missed homer No. 9 on Sunday, with an RBI double that hit the left-field wall.

“If you look back to my college years and my first year or two in pro ball, I always hit my fair share of home runs,” Stubbs said.

Yes, but …

“I think this year, early, I just happened to be hitting a lot more ground balls and line drives. Since I got up here, I made a few adjustments with my swing to where I’m driving the ball a lot more.”

Result:

“When you’re hitting the ball hard with backspin, you’re gonna hit balls out of the ballpark. I think that’s the simple explanation.”

Whatever it is, manager Dusty Baker will take it.

“I didn’t see him this year at Louisville, but I saw him in spring training,” Baker said. “I didn’t understand why he had only three home runs at Louisville.”

Baker said that, during his own playing days, he too saw an increase in power upon reaching the major leagues.

“I ended up getting stronger,” Baker said. “It confuses you sometimes, between being a hitter and a slugger.”

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...AS5oD//sq/s%3D

[Highlifeman21]

where I come from it's almost impossible to maintain hitting singles.

Unless you're Ichiro.

Which Stubbs is not.

[lollipopcurve]

The kid has no stick, and I want a CF with D and some stick.

You realize that the evidence presented by his time with the Reds refutes this claim, right?

Given that most players continue to improve for years after their age 24 season, it would be logical to assume that Stubbs will get better than he is now, right?

So how are you so sure he can't hit, when the preponderance of evidence is against what you say?

[Highlifeman21]

You realize that the evidence presented by his time with the Reds refutes this claim, right?

Given that most players continue to improve for years after their age 24 season, it would be logical to assume that Stubbs will get better than he is now, right?

So how are you so sure he can't hit, when the preponderance of evidence is against what you say?

Evidence presented by his time with the Reds is small sample size. Let's see what this kid can do over the full 2010 season. That should settle the who's right/who's wrong about Drew Stubbs debate.

I hope Stubbs gets better as he ages, and I hope I'm wrong, b/c that means good things for the Reds (which I want). Unfortunately, I do not see that being the case.

How am I so sure he can't hit? You saw what he did in the minors, right? I guess we should just ignore that, right? Right now the evidence is in my favor given the bigger sample size in the minors vs the smaller sample size in the majors.

... but again, give Stubbs the full 2010 season to show us what he's made of. I'm definitely interested to find out.

[traderumor]

Evidence presented by his time with the Reds is small sample size. Let's see what this kid can do over the full 2010 season. That should settle the who's right/who's wrong about Drew Stubbs debate.

I hope Stubbs gets better as he ages, and I hope I'm wrong, b/c that means good things for the Reds (which I want). Unfortunately, I do not see that being the case.

How am I so sure he can't hit? You saw what he did in the minors, right? I guess we should just ignore that, right? Right now the evidence is in my favor given the bigger sample size in the minors vs the smaller sample size in the majors.

... but again, give Stubbs the full 2010 season to show us what he's made of. I'm definitely interested to find out.

Looks to me like his minor league numbers are skewed by the low slugging this year at Louisville. Jocketty hinted a few weeks prior to his callup that some hesitance to bring him up had to do with "working on something." I'm surely not agreeing that the minor league numbers show "no stick," but look projectable to at least an average major league hitter. My eyes are also seeing a quick bat with a pitch recognition problem or overly patient approach at the plate. I do not think that folks are going too far out on a limb to think that he could be a piece to the puzzle from 2010 forward, including providing enough offense for his position. He does not solve the middle of the order power hitter problem, but then that solution is not generally found in the position he plays. Go find some plus offense in LF and SS, get expected production out of Bruce, and they suddenly have a major league offense.

[jojo]

Here's the thing. Both sides of the argument should be at the same place. In other words, the opinions are formed now it's time for Stubbs to provide the data.

There's only one way he can do that-with time, specifically playing time.

[flyer85]

bring back Willy T!!

[Highlifeman21]

Looks to me like his minor league numbers are skewed by the low slugging this year at Louisville. Jocketty hinted a few weeks prior to his callup that some hesitance to bring him up had to do with "working on something." I'm surely not agreeing that the minor league numbers show "no stick," but look projectable to at least an average major league hitter. My eyes are also seeing a quick bat with a pitch recognition problem or overly patient approach at the plate. I do not think that folks are going too far out on a limb to think that he could be a piece to the puzzle from 2010 forward, including providing enough offense for his position. He does not solve the middle of the order power hitter problem, but then that solution is not generally found in the position he plays. Go find some plus offense in LF and SS, get expected production out of Bruce, and they suddenly have a major league offense.

Which would you rather have, Janish @ SS, or some offense @ SS with presumably no appreciable D?

I'm ok with Janish @ SS given we do find some plus offense in LF (Gomes ain't the answer, but could be part of a platoon answer), find something to compliment Hanigan, find something to compliment Dickerson (Stubbs ain't the answer right now), and have Bruce put up something resembling a blend of his 2007 minor league and 2008 major league numbers.

Right now, Stubbs' saving grace is that he's not Willy Taveras.

[Highlifeman21]

Here's the thing. Both sides of the argument should be at the same place. In other words, the opinions are formed now it's time for Stubbs to provide the data.

There's only one way he can do that-with time, specifically playing time.

Exactly.

Let Stubbs sort it out over the course of 2010.

[Highlifeman21]

bring back Willy T!!

He should be coming off the DL soon, right?

Ask and you shall receive, I guess.