I'm not voting. My views on Stubbs are well documented, and IMO this power surge is a mirage. If he's the CF next season, i expect he'll post an OPS around .710-.720. At best.
I don't care how good his D is, that doesn't work for me, especially considering his SB% right now. Oh and here is the caveat, If you dismiss the MLB SB% because he had a much, much better rate in the minors, you have to dismiss the power at the MLB level for the same reason in reverse.
What I want is an average or better glove that can post at least an .800 OPS. In this ballpark, that's a necessity. I want a bat strong enough to hide a glove like Janish if necessary. I want a manager that understands this too. Glove bats 8th dude.
And no Sea_Ray, he hasn't proven that he has power. He has 123 AB's as a Red and 2 doubles. With his speed he has 2 doubles. That projects to like 9 doubles over 500 AB's maybe. The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.
Let me repeat that.
The HR's are something he has NEVER done in his professional career.
Now a platoon of Stubbs/Dickerson would be great defensively. I also think Bruce could play league average or slightly better in CF. Gomes looks like the starter in LF, necessitating that Bruce stay in RF.
And I still like Dickerson over Stubbs.
Suck it up cupcake.
You are in denial.he hasn't proven that he has power.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
To what do you attribute his MLB power numbers?
This is all I care about when it comes to Stubbs "power". I don't care if he hits 5-10-15 or 20 homers a year, that will all be a bonus. But he has shown that if you grove a pitch, he will punish you for it. This might be the limit of his power, but it is enough for him to be a successful MLB hitter.
That is essential for every major league hitter. As Caveat pointed out, once a hitter proves his has this ability, pitchers are more careful with him. This may lead to a decrease in power, but it will lead to an increase in walks and singles if the hitter has good plate discipline, and thus higher OBP. Players like Taveras, Castro and Janish have shown how difficult it is to hit over a full season without this power.
In the minors, Stubbs' numbers did not reveal this power, although people who saw him said he had it. That is why I am very encouraged by this show of power at the MLB level. It validates what the scouts were saying, that the stats were not. This was the one issue that I had with Stubbs, and am glad to see that it is not much of an issue.
Now Stubbs may not ever develop the plate discipline needed to be that solid MLB hitter, but it is nice to see that if he does develop it, he has the power to become one.
Last edited by TheNext44; 09-17-2009 at 02:35 PM.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein
I sort of think, though, that expecting someone to carry an OPS north of 800 at that position is unrealistic. At least, if it's not unrealistic it's somewhat unfair.
This is a position, where the starters in aggregate, are averaging 340/430/770 as splits this year. Only 9 of 30 starters are carrying OPS over 800 and only three have OPS's over 850.
Code:TEAM NAME OPS NYM Carlos Beltran 0.945 LAA Torii Hunter 0.926 LAD Matt Kemp 0.865 ATL Nate McLouth 0.826 PHI Shane Victorino 0.820 OAK Rajai Davis 0.808 MIL Mike Cameron 0.801 PIT Andrew McCutchen 0.801 TEX Marlon Byrd 0.800 BAL Adam Jones 0.792 DET Curtis Granderson 0.792 CHN Kosuke Fukudome 0.791 CLE Grady Sizemore 0.788 COL Dexter Fowler 0.782 HOU Michael Bourn 0.765 BOS Jacoby Ellsbury 0.764 CHA Scott Podsednik 0.764 NYY Melky Cabrera 0.763 CIN Drew Stubbs 0.758 WAS Nyjer Morgan 0.757 SEA Franklin Gutierrez 0.751 SF Aaron Rowand 0.750 STL Colby Rasmus 0.733 TOR Vernon Wells 0.724 ARI Chris Young 0.707 KC Mitch Maier 0.696 SD Tony Gwynn Jr. 0.670 TB B.J. Upton 0.667 FLA Cameron Maybin 0.660 MIN Carlos Gomez 0.639
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Yeah, and I want to be 16 again.The Reds had Mike Cameron once. I want another one.
Stubbs needs to be evaluated based on who he is, not who he isn't. First Lincecum, now Cameron, eh?
See, pitchers at every, EVERY level figured Stubbs out. It's possible that veteran MLB pitchers have too little respect for him. And he's done a decent job of jerking one out, but it doesn't pass the sniff test that AA/AAA/AFL pitchers OWNED him while MLB pitchers are getting a neck strain.
One of these seasons is not like the others.
That said, his progression as a hitter could have continued under Jacoby. After all look at how many other Reds hitters have thrived under him.
Suck it up cupcake.
9 guys over .800, five within spitting distance, and all five are likely to hit over .800 multiple times when their careers are over.
Almost half of the regular CF's
I want the Reds in that half. that's where we ALL should want the Reds and it isn't unrealistic.
So that's 14, 15 if you count Upton, which I do, with .800 OPS potential
Last edited by TRF; 09-17-2009 at 02:49 PM.
Suck it up cupcake.
A lot of guys have 800 OPS "potential." But having that potential and actually doing it on an annual basis are two very different things.
An 800 OPS for this position really is an exception more than a rule.
I would love to see Stubbs be a perennial 800 OPS CF. It's certainly not a bad goal to have for him. I just think goals and expectations are two different things. I want him to do that, I just don't feel it's proper to expect it. For purpose of expectation, 760-800 would be more than plenty to make him extremely valuable with his glove. If he does exceed that, it's gravy.
He has the skills to hit for power if not the numbers. Guys like Pete Rose and Ichiro have power skills but not the power numbers. At this point that's all I'm looking at.
I'm gonna need at least 4,000 big league ab's before I can make any accurate projections.