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View Poll Results: What do you want to see from Stubbs going forward?

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  • His current .760 OPS is just fine

    22 24.72%
  • Would like to see a higher OBP, even at expense of some SLG

    51 57.30%
  • Would like to see the SLG continue to climb

    2 2.25%
  • Not satisfied with a .760 OPS

    4 4.49%
  • Slightly lower than .760 would still be justifed by defense

    10 11.24%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #406
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Except as I already showed you, he has been getting better at getting on base since he came up.

    Here is what it has looked like through the season.

    So when does his OBP crack .360?

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  3. #407
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    So when does his OBP crack .360?
    Don't know.... but why is .360 the bench mark when the average MLB center fielder doesn't sniff that?

  4. #408
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Don't know.... but why is .360 the bench mark when the average MLB center fielder doesn't sniff that?
    Is he going to lead off for us? Is he going to bat 2nd for us?

    If so, .360 is my mark.

    If he's going to bat between 3rd and 6th, then his OBP is less important and his newly found SLG is more important, correct?

  5. #409
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Don't know.... but why is .360 the bench mark when the average MLB center fielder doesn't sniff that?
    Average CF OBP:

    2009: .335
    2008: .334
    2007: .338
    2006: .335
    2005: .334

    So yea, for the past month, he's exceeded the OBP of an average player at his position. Even if the slugging starts coming down, as most everyone here expects (to what degree is still a point of contention), as long as he continues this trend of getting on base more often (as has been the case for the past month), he will be an above-average offensive player.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #410
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Is he going to lead off for us? Is he going to bat 2nd for us?

    If so, .360 is my mark.

    If he's going to bat between 3rd and 6th, then his OBP is less important and his newly found SLG is more important, correct?
    Don't put that on Stubbs, put that on Dustball. Its like me constantly complaining about Brandon Phillips sucking because he bats cleanup with a crappy OBP and crappy SLG.

  7. #411
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    The question at this point should not be whether Stubbs is an above average leadoff hitter. He's not yet. Rather, it should be whether he's better than the alternatives we currently have or could reasonably acquire.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #412
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    If you pay close attention to this trends, however, you'll see that he's improving almost all across the board.

    Over the past few weeks, his strikeouts have gone significantly down (only 11 in the past 60 plate appearances). His walks are going up (six in the past 60 plate appearances). His OBP has risen from .281 to start the month to .316 (.340 in the month of September). And he's doing so while still improving his slugging.

    Taken as a whole, his OBP is still a work in progress. However, while it's still possible he could start next season struggling, right now he's showing more signs of adjusting to the MLB pitching than the other way around.

    His peripherals seem to improve every day across the board. That's encouraging when you consider we're now at just about 160 PA's for him.

    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  9. #413
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Don't put that on Stubbs, put that on Dustball. Its like me constantly complaining about Brandon Phillips sucking because he bats cleanup with a crappy OBP and crappy SLG.
    I would say it's a combination of the two.

    If in 2010, Stubbs shows that he'll continue to be a .320 OBP and SLG North of .450, then he shouldn't bat leadoff, and The Dusty should bat him accordingly.

    However, Stubbs showed in the minors that he knew how to get on base, so I can see why The Dusty wants to bat him leadoff. It's then up to Stubbs to either increase his OBP and make sense as a leadoff guy, or then it's up to The Dusty to move him down the order to utilize his production.

  10. #414
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I would say it's a combination of the two.

    If in 2010, Stubbs shows that he'll continue to be a .320 OBP and SLG North of .450, then he shouldn't bat leadoff, and The Dusty should bat him accordingly.

    However, Stubbs showed in the minors that he knew how to get on base, so I can see why The Dusty wants to bat him leadoff. It's then up to Stubbs to either increase his OBP and make sense as a leadoff guy, or then it's up to The Dusty to move him down the order to utilize his production.
    nah, that's not really how it works. it's the manager's job to put the player in the best possible position to succeed. ESPECIALLY when the player is a rookie and really has little to no influence.
    Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 09-24-2009 at 08:27 PM.

  11. #415
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I would say it's a combination of the two.

    If in 2010, Stubbs shows that he'll continue to be a .320 OBP and SLG North of .450, then he shouldn't bat leadoff, and The Dusty should bat him accordingly.
    OK, fair enough. Who do you bat leadoff then? Janish? Bruce? Rolen? Who?

  12. #416
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    To me the question is this-given Stubbs can't get enough PAs this season to allow us to make any meaningful statistical conclusions about the aspects of his game that are points of contention, shouldn't we quit trying to draw statistical inferences about them?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #417
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    To me the question is this-given Stubbs can't get enough PAs this season to allow us to make any meaningful statistical conclusions about the aspects of his game that are points of contention, shouldn't we quit trying to draw statistical inferences about them?
    We're fans and we like to predict the future. We like to leave our day jobs and play "scout" in our free time. We're projecting Stubbs' future just like Walt and his staff should be doing. When you can't discuss the post season, the future is as good as it gets.

  14. #418
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    We're fans and we like to predict the future. We like to leave our day jobs and play "scout" in our free time. We're projecting Stubbs' future just like Walt and his staff should be doing. When you can't discuss the post season, the future is as good as it gets.
    I'm not suggesting that discussing Stubbs is bad. But we know that stats are beholden to sample size issues. We shouldn't discuss Stubbs' future based upon a sample that we know isn't big enough.

    Scout away. But statistical arguments based upon his time with the Reds at this point have to be considered untrustworthy.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #419
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    To me the question is this-given Stubbs can't get enough PAs this season to allow us to make any meaningful statistical conclusions about the aspects of his game that are points of contention, shouldn't we quit trying to draw statistical inferences about them?
    While his REDS PA this season isn't enough, it does add more data to the overall Drew Stubbs data that we have.

  16. #420
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm not suggesting that discussing Stubbs is bad. But we know that stats are beholden to sample size issues. We shouldn't discuss Stubbs' future based upon a sample that we know isn't big enough.

    Scout away. But statistical arguments based upon his time with the Reds at this point have to be considered untrustworthy.
    I think you can always read into stats to a certain degree. With every passing day, the sample gets larger and larger. It's like a Wheel of Fortune puzzle. You might not be able to solve it with the first few letters in a phrase, but with every letter you add, it starts to make a little more sense until eventually, there are enough letters turned over to solve it.

    It might be way too premature to solve any puzzles from Stubbs' play. But every game adds a stab at yet another letter.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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