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View Poll Results: What do you want to see from Stubbs going forward?

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  • His current .760 OPS is just fine

    22 24.72%
  • Would like to see a higher OBP, even at expense of some SLG

    51 57.30%
  • Would like to see the SLG continue to climb

    2 2.25%
  • Not satisfied with a .760 OPS

    4 4.49%
  • Slightly lower than .760 would still be justifed by defense

    10 11.24%
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Thread: Drew Stubbs

  1. #436
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    My money is on Dickerson playing for a different team in 2010.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

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  3. #437
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    I'll take that bet. Dusty seems to like him and I doubt there's much trade interest in him (though there should be).

    I'm guessing Dickerson's going to play fourth OF, with Francisco as the starting LF. When Francisco bombs out (if he bombs out), Dickerson's going to play left. (Gomes, IMO, will be let go.)

    I'm also thinking/hoping Dorn could get a look at that point.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  4. #438
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post

    No, more like it's noise. The problem with projecting Stubbs is 2008. He didn't spend any significant time at any level, except High A, where as was stated, he was owned. How can you actually sit there and say he has this ability to make adjustments when 2009 was the first time in over a year pitchers and coaches had a significant book on him? Right now, the only MLB team that might have one is the Pirates.
    You think that Drew Stubbs was the only player promoted in the minor leagues over that time? That no one had any clue on the kind of player he was over that time when he was promoted? You can't honestly believe that can you?

    BTW, nice massaging of numbers regarding 2008. July was too small a sample, so you include it as June in a month by month tracking of his OBP. I also noticed you completely left out his abysmal AFL.
    Massaging? I didn't do anything of the sort. But I wasn't going to leave off 10% of his plate appearances at a level because they came in half a month. As for the AFL, they don't change much of anything. They were ugly numbers for sure, they were also in winter ball. Juan Francisco tore up winter ball last year and had an OBP over .400, does that mean we should expect that from him? Of course not. We have 1500+ PA of other data suggesting otherwise.

    The anti-Stubbs group, of which I am a charter member mostly wanted the guy to do a level a year. When selected, he was considered "raw", so why rush him, as was done in 2008? Draft slot. Never would have happened if he had been a 5th round pick. We want more data. Some acknowledge his ceiling, while pointing out his floor is very low.
    Except as we have seen if your plan was implemented Stubbs would be in AA, not in the majors with 8 HR and an OPS above average for his position. You pretend as if Stubbs played like Justin Reed or something and was overmatched but was promoted for no reason through AAA and to the majors. That simply didn't happen.

    The Pro-Stubbs camp, and you know who you are, almost never mention his floor, never mention he was rushed, never mention his .500+ OPS during the month he was promoted to the Reds. Nope. We get LD% as a baseline of him to keep doing what he is doing. Even though that contradicts the notion he's hadt to KEPP reworking his swing. Is it the third different swing now? So let's throw LD% out the door, because certainly in this context it is meaningless.
    I am going to assume you are talking about me, and if you paid attention you would note that I have said that if he didn't improve his HR numbers from AAA he would struggle to be a starter because he just didn't have the other numbers to make it work, but I also believed his HR power would come around. Yeah, he struggled in August in Louisville. He was promoted because of an injury, but he stepped up his game upon getting to the big leagues (which can clearly be noted in the swing difference between 2009 Louisville and 2009 Cincinnati). As for his LD%, I am pretty sure I haven't talked about that at all in 2009. And no, it doesn't contradict that he needed to rework his swing. He needed to rework his swing so he could cut down on the strikeouts.

    2010 will tell the tale, and though I am not optimistic, I am hopeful. Hell I threatened to become a Cubs fan if the Reds signed Willy Taveras, and I'd take Drew Stubbs in a heartbeat over Taveras, if only for his potential. See, I have never once doubted the physical tools, just the mental ones.
    No, 2010 won't tell the tale. It will be part of the story. One year won't make or break a guy (short of an extreme injury). And yes, you have doubted the physical tools because I can't remember how many times you have said he doesn't have power. That is doubting a physical tool and one that he does indeed have.

  5. #439
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You think that Drew Stubbs was the only player promoted in the minor leagues over that time? That no one had any clue on the kind of player he was over that time when he was promoted? You can't honestly believe that can you?

    Massaging? I didn't do anything of the sort. But I wasn't going to leave off 10% of his plate appearances at a level because they came in half a month. As for the AFL, they don't change much of anything. They were ugly numbers for sure, they were also in winter ball. Juan Francisco tore up winter ball last year and had an OBP over .400, does that mean we should expect that from him? Of course not. We have 1500+ PA of other data suggesting otherwise.

    Except as we have seen if your plan was implemented Stubbs would be in AA, not in the majors with 8 HR and an OPS above average for his position. You pretend as if Stubbs played like Justin Reed or something and was overmatched but was promoted for no reason through AAA and to the majors. That simply didn't happen.


    I am going to assume you are talking about me, and if you paid attention you would note that I have said that if he didn't improve his HR numbers from AAA he would struggle to be a starter because he just didn't have the other numbers to make it work, but I also believed his HR power would come around. Yeah, he struggled in August in Louisville. He was promoted because of an injury, but he stepped up his game upon getting to the big leagues (which can clearly be noted in the swing difference between 2009 Louisville and 2009 Cincinnati). As for his LD%, I am pretty sure I haven't talked about that at all in 2009. And no, it doesn't contradict that he needed to rework his swing. He needed to rework his swing so he could cut down on the strikeouts.



    No, 2010 won't tell the tale. It will be part of the story. One year won't make or break a guy (short of an extreme injury). And yes, you have doubted the physical tools because I can't remember how many times you have said he doesn't have power. That is doubting a physical tool and one that he does indeed have.

    I stated any number of times that his swing doesn't produce power. I have on MANY occasions stated I thought the Reds development team screwed with him too much. 5th hitter, leadoff. they couldn't make up their minds. And the numbers show it too. Someone at the MLB level looked at his frame and thought "I bet he could hit for power". You yourself hinted as much. However if you don't use it, you don't have it. WT has speed. he didn't use it this year so who cares?

    As for your Francisco comp. interesting, so 1500 PA's of JF not having a good OBP is valuable, but 1800 PA's of Stubbs having displayed almost no power is not because... why exactly?

    If Stubbs is back to his sub .700 OPS ways next season you don't think that will be very telling? And yes he can go for a month or longer below .700, sometimes below .600. Even you aren't THAT much of a homer. So let me get this straight. Alonso tore up the HWL, because he should because he was a 1st round pick and he can hit because he was a 1st round pick. Stubbs didn't so who cares, because he was a 1st round pick and the AFL doesn't matter and he was tired and he will hit.

    except, did he?

    How about you try tempering your expectations just a tad. The only time you have ever said Stubbs needs to hit for more power or be more aggressive in the zone is when you say you have said it. And as someone that has paid a little attention to Stubbs threads, i call shenanigans. Revisionist history. I've stated his potential is there. Have you EVER talked about his floor? Nope.

    Face facts. You have never been critical of a Reds' 1st round pick, IMO because you are afraid of losing the access you have to the Reds minor leaguers, at least the ones you like. BTW, I think that what you do with the minor leagues is a service to all of us, but you aren't impartial. Since you have no major backing, it would be tough to be impartial as the Reds could just cut you off. It's a tough position one i do and don't envy you in. I read the information you post as it is usually on the mark. I pretty much take your opinions with a grain of salt.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #440
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I'll take that bet. Dusty seems to like him and I doubt there's much trade interest in him (though there should be).
    My intuition is that Dusty doesn't like him but I don't think he'd garner enough interest to move him.

  7. #441
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    We've heard alot about Stubb's changed swing, does anyone have footage of his Bats swing versus his Reds swing this year that they could post easily?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #442
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    My money is on Dickerson playing for a different team in 2010.
    I think that's a good guess. Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce will be starting in the outfield, Balentien is out of options, and the Reds won't be able to find anyone to take on Willy Taveras' salary. Not only that, but the Reds have a few outfield prospects coming up in the near future (Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Danny Dorn). Dickerson is expendable, his stock is high, and the Reds need to make a lot of room on the 40-man roster.

  9. #443
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I stated any number of times that his swing doesn't produce power. I have on MANY occasions stated I thought the Reds development team screwed with him too much. 5th hitter, leadoff. they couldn't make up their minds. And the numbers show it too. Someone at the MLB level looked at his frame and thought "I bet he could hit for power". You yourself hinted as much. However if you don't use it, you don't have it. WT has speed. he didn't use it this year so who cares?
    Except Stubbs power potential isn't based soley on his frame, its based on his bat speed. Taveras did use his speed. If he weren't one of the fastest guys in baseball his bad reads/routes would make him a well below average center fielder. Instead he is above average despite being poor on reading the ball off the bat because his speed is that good that he can make up for it.

    As for your Francisco comp. interesting, so 1500 PA's of JF not having a good OBP is valuable, but 1800 PA's of Stubbs having displayed almost no power is not because... why exactly?
    Francisco has scouting reports and stats that tell us that he is an absolute free swinger with the best of them. Stubbs scouting reports tell us he has power. Thats the difference.

    If Stubbs is back to his sub .700 OPS ways next season you don't think that will be very telling? And yes he can go for a month or longer below .700, sometimes below .600. Even you aren't THAT much of a homer.
    Stubbs can't go back to his sub .700 OPS ways because he has never been down there as a professional. Month's? Sure. A lot of guys do that. And if he does it over a full season, its going to depend on what the reason for it is. If its because he had a .220 BABIP, then no, there isn't much that it will tell us.

    So let me get this straight. Alonso tore up the HWL, because he should because he was a 1st round pick and he can hit because he was a 1st round pick. Stubbs didn't so who cares, because he was a 1st round pick and the AFL doesn't matter and he was tired and he will hit.
    Two different leagues, one guy was well rested and well, where did that comparison even come from?

    How about you try tempering your expectations just a tad. The only time you have ever said Stubbs needs to hit for more power or be more aggressive in the zone is when you say you have said it. And as someone that has paid a little attention to Stubbs threads, i call shenanigans. Revisionist history. I've stated his potential is there. Have you EVER talked about his floor? Nope.
    Really? I haven't gone through the math several times showing that unless Stubbs hits more HR's or cuts down his strikeout rate that he would struggle to hit well enough to start? I can't imagine I would have gone against the math on that one, because well, thats what the math told us. His floor is a 4th outfielder with great defense and a good ability to be a pinch runner. Not sure why I would ever need to talk about his floor in our past conversations because we have entirely different idea's of his floor. Yours used to be a AAA scrub.

    Face facts. You have never been critical of a Reds' 1st round pick, IMO because you are afraid of losing the access you have to the Reds minor leaguers, at least the ones you like.
    You don't know the kind of access I have, so I don't think you can comment on what I am or am not afraid of losing.

    As for me being critical of a Reds first rounder:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...2&postcount=99
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=108

    I was pretty critical of Kyle Lotzkar because of his mechanics being downright scary as well. I wasn't entirely a fan of Mesoraco because I just don't like any catcher in the first 5 rounds because of how often they flop (about 95%).

    BTW, I think that what you do with the minor leagues is a service to all of us, but you aren't impartial. Since you have no major backing, it would be tough to be impartial as the Reds could just cut you off. It's a tough position one i do and don't envy you in. I read the information you post as it is usually on the mark. I pretty much take your opinions with a grain of salt.
    Your assumption is that the Reds feed me information, which isn't true. Yes, I do talk to some people within the organization. But I also talk to players and other talent evaluators (scouts for other teams for example). Most of my information doesn't come from the Reds people at all, at least in terms of scouting reports post GCL.

  10. #444
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    My intuition is that Dusty doesn't like him but I don't think he'd garner enough interest to move him.
    That's Dusty's problem.... he seems to like, become attached to, certain players who aren't worth a crap, but seem to fit his "mold" or perceptions. While taking a dislike to those players that have worth, or could possibly prove to be so if given a chance.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  11. #445
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    As for me being critical of a Reds first rounder:
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...2&postcount=99
    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=108

    I wasn't entirely a fan of Mesoraco because I just don't like any catcher in the first 5 rounds because of how often they flop (about 95%).

    You didn't want us to take Stubbs. We all remember that. Since it happened, you've championed him and been one of his, if not the biggest, cheerleaders. It's almost like you're staking your reputation on you being right about Stubbs.

    As for Mesoraco, you've also greatly warmed to him, and defend him to detractors on a regular basis.

    I'd also say that you're being very generous by saying Stubbs' floor is a 4th OF with elite D. He could easily prove to be a AAAA player who with his D might end up netting him one of the last spots on a 25 man roster.

    Stubbs' D is what'll keep him @ the MLB level. His bat will be what will lead him back to AAA.

  12. #446
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Then lets find out. No great risk in doing so.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  13. #447
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Then lets find out. No great risk in doing so.
    He's not Willy Taveras, so he's got that going for him.

    Let's make Drew Stubbs the everyday CF for 2010 and see what this kid is made of.

    He's old enough given that he played 3 years of college ball that he should be in the majors anyway.

    Throw him in the deep end, see if he can swim.

  14. #448
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    He's not Willy Taveras, so he's got that going for him.

    Let's make Drew Stubbs the everyday CF for 2010 and see what this kid is made of.

    He's old enough given that he played 3 years of college ball that he should be in the majors anyway.

    Throw him in the deep end, see if he can swim.
    I think that's basically what the "pro-Stubbs" side has been arguing all along. We're just a little more optimistic that he'll be able to stay afloat--and perhaps even make a splash.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  15. #449
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Ltlabner View Post
    My money is on Dickerson playing for a different team in 2010.
    I hate to say it but you may be right for the same reasons that Camisadelgolf articulated so well except for one point: his stock was higher after last season. After this season I'd have to think his stock has fallen at least a little.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    I'll take that bet. Dusty seems to like him and I doubt there's much trade interest in him (though there should be).

    I'm guessing Dickerson's going to play fourth OF, with Francisco as the starting LF. When Francisco bombs out (if he bombs out), Dickerson's going to play left. (Gomes, IMO, will be let go.)

    I'm also thinking/hoping Dorn could get a look at that point.
    I think this was just an opportunity to get a good look at Francisco play in the majors but putting him down as a starter is definitely a stretch. I doubt that Gomes will be let go. Gomes is still likely to be a bargain. Well, as long as his stats don't drop TOO much.


    To dougdirt and TRF: if/when you two kiss and make up can you two warn us ahead of time so we can look away?
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  16. #450
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfandan View Post


    To dougdirt and TRF: if/when you two kiss and make up can you two warn us ahead of time so we can look away?

    If they ever do, this site will get real boring, real fast.
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