Personally I don't know why you take that risk when there's another good defensive CF with a career .385 OBP on the roster, but I'm not Walt.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Paul Janish lite folks.
And when I'm wrong, I say I'm wrong.
As a Reds fan, I'd love nothing more than Drew Stubbs to make me wrong, but nothing points to that being the case so far.
Defense alone won't help the Reds turn the corner to put The Lost Decade in the rearview mirror. We need better pitching and plenty more offense.
Methinks Stubbs' time with the Reds currently is attempting to increase trade value, as well as probably determining the future of Willy Taveras.
Stubbs just popped HR #8, this one to CF. It appeared to me the stroke was entirely powerless, and the ball carried by chance in a current of luck to a fortuitous location.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
FWIW, I reverse-engineered an expected line for Stubbs next season.
I used the following criteria:
25% K rate
2.0% HR rate
12% BB rate
50% BH rate (based on league average bunt%)
13% IFH rate
Then I used career average percentages for doubles and triples from the minors. I used league averages for LD%, GB%, FB%, IFFB%, etc. I am basing this off 600 plate appearances.
366 Balls in Play
70 Line Drives (51 hits)
154 Groundballs (25 hits)
129 fly balls (20 hits)
14 IFFB (0 hits)
13 Bunts (6 hits) + (20 IF hits)
Based on xBABIP rates for batted balls (with adjustments made to the aforementioned peripherals), his xBABIP would be: (51+25+20+6+20) 122 hits / 366 BIP or .333
So, adding in 12 HR, 30 2B, 5 3B, his K's, BABIP and walks, here is his line:
.254 / .347 / .401 / .748
Again, that's based on 5% doubles, 1% triples, 2% homers, 12% walks, 25% strikeouts and league-average ball in play rates with exception only of infield and bunt hits (to which his speed will created slightly above-average rates in those categories). His career double rate is actually 5.3% so I was conservative in that estimate.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Dickerson had slightly better minor league power than Stubbs (.414 career minor league SLG vs .401 for Stubbs), came up and smashed MLB late season to a greater degree than Stubbs has (.608 SLG last year). His 2009 SLG? .375.
BTW, here is the major league equivalent of Drew's work in AAA this year:
As I said above I don't think he's going to be that bad, but I think it's reasonable to have doubts about his ability to hit an at acceptable level for a MLB starter.
"Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."
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