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Thread: Random Trade Idea

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Random Trade Idea

    Would you trade Brandon Phillips, Willy Taveras, Mike Lincoln and Travis Wood for Derek Lowe and Yunel Escobar?

    I figure we've got more guys capable of handling 2B than SS and Escobar is cheaper and under contract for a few years. Lowe would really solidify the rotation (his FIP this year was 3.97) and pick up the veteran role when Harang and Arroyo are gone. Escobar slides in nicely at the top of the lineup (either leadoff or #2).

    Taveras and Lincoln balance out the deal money wise in 2010. The Reds pick up a somewhat risky contract of Lowe's which helps the Braves get out of their 6 SP situation while dumping their worst contract -- the value of doing so justifies Escobar.

    The Braves could play BP at SS, Prado at 2B and hand 1B to Heyward. Or they could move Prado to 3B, Kelly Johnson at 2B and move Chipper for 1B if Heyward isn't ready.

    Anyways... just a random trade idea....
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    In a word...no.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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    Hamilton ROY & GG

  4. #3
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Would you trade Brandon Phillips, Willy Taveras, Mike Lincoln and Travis Wood for Derek Lowe and Yunel Escobar?

    I figure we've got more guys capable of handling 2B than SS and Escobar is cheaper and under contract for a few years. Lowe would really solidify the rotation (his FIP this year was 3.97) and pick up the veteran role when Harang and Arroyo are gone. Escobar slides in nicely at the top of the lineup (either leadoff or #2).

    Taveras and Lincoln balance out the deal money wise in 2010. The Reds pick up a somewhat risky contract of Lowe's which helps the Braves get out of their 6 SP situation while dumping their worst contract -- the value of doing so justifies Escobar.

    The Braves could play BP at SS, Prado at 2B and hand 1B to Heyward. Or they could move Prado to 3B, Kelly Johnson at 2B and move Chipper for 1B if Heyward isn't ready.

    Anyways... just a random trade idea....
    I don't think the Braves would do that.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #4
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Would you trade Brandon Phillips, Willy Taveras, Mike Lincoln and Travis Wood for Derek Lowe and Yunel Escobar?

    I figure we've got more guys capable of handling 2B than SS and Escobar is cheaper and under contract for a few years. Lowe would really solidify the rotation (his FIP this year was 3.97) and pick up the veteran role when Harang and Arroyo are gone. Escobar slides in nicely at the top of the lineup (either leadoff or #2).

    Taveras and Lincoln balance out the deal money wise in 2010. The Reds pick up a somewhat risky contract of Lowe's which helps the Braves get out of their 6 SP situation while dumping their worst contract -- the value of doing so justifies Escobar.

    The Braves could play BP at SS, Prado at 2B and hand 1B to Heyward. Or they could move Prado to 3B, Kelly Johnson at 2B and move Chipper for 1B if Heyward isn't ready.

    Anyways... just a random trade idea....
    In a word, yes.

    In many words, the positive addition of Escobar would be greater that the risk of adding Lowe, and it's not like Lowe sucks, just on the downside of a great career.

    Players like Escobar are hard to come by, and the Reds really could use a long term solution at SS. I am confident that they can replace Phillips overall with Fraizer or Valaika, or a free agent. Basically Escobar & (Frazier./Valaika) > Phillips & Janish.

    Much too logical to ever happen, however.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  6. #5
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I don't think the Braves would do that.
    I didn't look at it from that angle, but that's true too. Lincoln & Taveras in there would turn them away in a heartbeat. For me, it's that I think Phillips is getting ready to really bust out. Sure, Escobar is a nice player, but I think we're overestimating what our 2B prospects can do if we think they can replace Brandon (offensively OR defensively). Sure, it fills a hole, but it opens up another gaping one.

    As for Lowe, he's a nice player too...but I think Wood can equal or better Lowe in a few years. But even if he doesn't, it's not like we're in dire straights for starting pitchers.

    For a team that's struggled offensively all year long...I'd think the last thing we'd want to do is deal off our second best hitter.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  7. #6
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Would you trade Brandon Phillips, Willy Taveras, Mike Lincoln and Travis Wood for Derek Lowe and Yunel Escobar?

    I figure we've got more guys capable of handling 2B than SS and Escobar is cheaper and under contract for a few years. Lowe would really solidify the rotation (his FIP this year was 3.97) and pick up the veteran role when Harang and Arroyo are gone. Escobar slides in nicely at the top of the lineup (either leadoff or #2).

    Taveras and Lincoln balance out the deal money wise in 2010. The Reds pick up a somewhat risky contract of Lowe's which helps the Braves get out of their 6 SP situation while dumping their worst contract -- the value of doing so justifies Escobar.

    The Braves could play BP at SS, Prado at 2B and hand 1B to Heyward. Or they could move Prado to 3B, Kelly Johnson at 2B and move Chipper for 1B if Heyward isn't ready.

    Anyways... just a random trade idea....

    You've made a very typical RZ error. Your trade takes on more salary than we're dumping. That's not how this thing works. Derek Lowe is owed $45mill. We can't take that on, nor should we for a RH pitcher. We have an abundance of RH starters as it is. Small markets don't make trades like that with the larger markets.

    A big no way to this one

  8. #7
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    To me Phillips is what you see. He's a 3 to 3.5 win second baseman who will be getting significant raises over the next three years.

    Escobar provides similar production from a more premium position and he's going to be cheaper over the next three years.

    Lowe, while expensive has a fair contract based upon reasonable expectations (basically needs to be a 3 to 3.5 WAR pitcher/yr)

    I just don't see the value going the Braves way. They basically get a more expensive middle infielder who gives them roughly the same impact. I'm not sure what they do at short. And in turn for a good pitcher, they get the contracts of Lincoln and Taveras-two players that really have no role on the Braves roster.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Of course -- but the Braves would never do that.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  10. #9
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Uh, hell yes.

    Escobar is better with the bat than BP, younger and cheaper.

    One of Arroyo/Harang is gone after 2010 I believe, so Lowe slots in as a solid #3-4, expensive, yes, but reliable.

    The Reds have a plethora of 2B types, some ready to go right now (IMO Valaika)
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #10
    Socratic Gadfly TheNext44's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    To me Phillips is what you see. He's a 3 to 3.5 win second baseman who will be getting significant raises over the next three years.

    Escobar provides similar production from a more premium position and he's going to be cheaper over the next three years.

    Lowe, while expensive has a fair contract based upon reasonable expectations (basically needs to be a 3 to 3.5 WAR pitcher/yr)

    I just don't see the value going the Braves way. They basically get a more expensive middle infielder who gives them roughly the same impact. I'm not sure what they do at short. And in turn for a good pitcher, they get the contracts of Lincoln and Taveras-two players that really have no role on the Braves roster.

    They do get Wood, and salary relief in the future. Also, I am less confident, as I think the Braves are, that Lowe will continue to earn his salary. Not saying that they would do it, but I don't think they would reject it immediately.
    "Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

  12. #11
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Yes, absolutely, but it would take a heck of a lot more than that to make it happen.

  13. #12
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNext44 View Post
    They do get Wood, and salary relief in the future. Also, I am less confident, as I think the Braves are, that Lowe will continue to earn his salary. Not saying that they would do it, but I don't think they would reject it immediately.
    Lowe is owed $45M. Phillips is owed $30M (assuming no buy out) which is probably $20+M more than Escobar will get over the period. It also should be noted that Phillips is under control for a year less than Escobar. Taveras and Lincoln are $6.5M and are essentially superfluous for the Braves.

    So the salary relief basically amounts to shaving a year off of their commitment to Lowe. For this, they get a middle infielder who basically gives them the same impact as the one they'd ship out while giving giving up a year of control over their middle infielder. They'd also ship out a good starting pitcher (i.e. they give up two years of Lowe with no production in return in order not to pay him the final year).

    It's just my opinion but I can't get the calculus to work.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #13
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Yunel Escobar Age 26 Salary 2009: $425,000
    Code:
    Season .302 .381 .442 .822
    Career .302 .376 .428 .804
    
    2007 Atl .326 .385 .451 .836 
    2008 Atl .288 .366 .401 .767 
    2009 Atl .302 .381 .442 .823
    
    Batting #2 .303 .363 .453 .816
    
    2009
    vs. Left  .233 .347 .353 .700 
    vs. Right .330 .396 .478 .874
    
    2008
    vs. Left  .262 .329 .342 .671 
    vs. Right .299 .380 .425 .805
    
    2007
    vs. Left  .355 .409 .461 .870 
    vs. Right .303 .367 .444 .811
    Oh he can hit and get on base against right handed pitching and has OBP plus SLG to bat second.

    How soon do we leave to pick him up?

  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    To me Phillips is what you see. He's a 3 to 3.5 win second baseman who will be getting significant raises over the next three years.

    Escobar provides similar production from a more premium position and he's going to be cheaper over the next three years.

    Lowe, while expensive has a fair contract based upon reasonable expectations (basically needs to be a 3 to 3.5 WAR pitcher/yr)

    I just don't see the value going the Braves way. They basically get a more expensive middle infielder who gives them roughly the same impact. I'm not sure what they do at short. And in turn for a good pitcher, they get the contracts of Lincoln and Taveras-two players that really have no role on the Braves roster.
    Their biggest value is getting rid of the Lowe commitment in 2011 and 2012 (the Braves are money conscious as well these days), allowing them to bring back Tim Hudson. They'd like to keep Hudson but have payroll concerns and 5 contracts under contract for 2010 already (Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, Jurrjens, Hanson).

    Taveras provides the Braves OF bench depth, something they've lacked, and is only around for 2010. Lincoln is just a guy - they can stash him in AAA if they want and is also just around for 2010. But the reality is that they aren't really included to provide value to the Braves, just to even up the salaries for 2010.

    Escobar is rumored to not take coaching terribly well and butted heads repeatedly with Bobby Cox. Given the emphasis the Braves place on character, I could see them willing to unload him. Phillips can take his place directly. Escobar is merely league average at SS -- something I imagine Phillips can more or less replicate.

    Oh, and they get a very solid pitching prospect in the deal, allowing them to refill the pitching pipeline with somebody who is very nearly ready to go.

    The real questions in my mind are the moving Phillips to SS angle and just how significant the Braves consider Escobar's character/maturity issues to be (though I suppose Phillips isn't exactly clubhouse glue...).

    Additionally, Jocketty has a relationship with the Braves FO dating back to the Drew/Wainwright deal.

    I don't think it's likely at all, but I was trying to find a way to get us a real SS and this idea came up... I actually think Jojo's got the right take on it -- the question is how much they would value getting rid of a possible malcontent and how they want to handle their 6 starters for 5 spots situation.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #15
    Your killin' me Smalls! StillFunkyB's Avatar
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    Re: Random Trade Idea

    I would do it.

    No way the Braves do it.
    "And the fact that watching him pitch is like having someone poop on your soul." FCB on Gary Majewski


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