MLBTR's Reds Report

[nate]

A season wrapup and look ahead from MLBTR:

Reds Report: Volquez, Bruce, Gomes

By Zach Links [October 4, 2009 at 3:00pm CST]
To put it mildly, this has been a rough year for Reds fans. Edinson Volquez had the Cincinnati faithful buzzing after posting a 3.21 ERA with 9.5 K/9 in his first full season in 2008. After logging just nine starts in the 2009 campaign, Volquez needed surgery to repair damage in his right elbow. The Reds faded fast as their depleted staff wasn't getting much of a lift from their sagging offense. Injuries to Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion (prior to being dealt to Toronto) certainly didn't do them any favors.
However, if the team's recent performance is any indication of what lies ahead, Reds fans might have something to cheer about in 2010. Dusty Baker's squad has gone 19-11 since September 1st, thanks in part to stronger pitching (3.39 team ERA) and the return of Jay Bruce, who missed two months with a broken wrist.
Buster Olney, Baseball Prospectus and the ESPN Insider staff compiled a glance at this past season and what to expect next year in Cincy. An ESPN Insider account is needed to read the article, but here are the brass tacks for those without:

• It's no secret that the Reds don't have a top-flight budget. They opened this season with a payroll of $73 million and owner Bob Castellini isn't going to "go all Steinbrenner" and tack-on much more.
• Further exacerbating their financial woes are their pricey commitments to Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, Aaron Harang and Scott Rolen. Combined, these four players are owed $46.5 million next season.
• Olney says that considering their lack of flexibility this offseason, Homer Bailey might be their best chance for improvement as he recorded a 2.41 ERA in September. The velocity that made Bailey such a highly-coveted prospect has returned, with his fastball being clocked at an average of 94.5 MPH this year. This is a big step-up from his previous big league work and could spell an even bigger jump in 2010.
• Baseball Prospectus says that their "acceptable" rate of 4.5 runs allowed per game is due in part to their much-improved defense. It will be interesting to see if defensive-minded yet weak-hitting shortstop Paul Janish will be the Reds' starter next season. GM Walt Jocketty said on Friday that a "definitive decision" hasn't been made yet.
• Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus notes that the combined efforts of all Reds batting in the top two lineup spots resulted in a slash line of .245/.301/.354. When Willie Tavares hit the DL in August, Dusty Baker put rookie Drew Stubbs and the aforementioned Janish at the top of the order. The team has gone 27-15 since then, but Jaffe attributes most of the credit for that to the improved performance of the pitching staff.
• The "Rumor Central" portion of the piece encourages Reds fans that are anxious to see the team acquire a big bat to consider what the offense is capable of if they are healthy. Injury-free seasons from Bruce and Votto should give Cincinnati a major boost.
• The report says to expect the Reds to tender Jonny Gomes an offer as he is arbitration-eligible. This should come as no surprise as Gomes has belted 20 HRs in 311 plate appearances while posting .266/.338/.540.
• Jaffe says that Jocketty could deal Arroyo or Harang to give the team room to make a mid-level signing this winter. He adds, "...It's difficult to envision this team breaking out of the middle of the pack without keen vision and bold steps."

[TheNext44]

From the Baseball Prospectus article by Jay Jaffe:

Baker's harrowing reputation with young pitchers reared its head. Volquez wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery after just nine starts and Johnny Cueto fell apart.

BP dead wrong again. Baker's use of them had nothing to do with their problems.

Why would anyone subscribe to these guys anymore? You can get betters stats elsewhere, and their analysis is god-awful.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Johnny Cueto didn't "fall apart" from anything Dusty did. While I am not a huge Dusty fan, it is quite apparent that all JC needed was rest.

I think we are in for about four-five months of these types of articles from folks who don't really follow the Reds but think they know what can cure them.

[nate]

Yeah, that's some fractional booty analysis from BP.

[TheNext44]

I do think the summation by ESPN is mostly correct. They did a good job of summing up the Reds strengths, weaknesses and questions for 2010.

I disagree, obviously with some of the conclusions. I think the Reds have a decently bright future, and can break out of the pack with some pretty basic moves, as long as the young players continue to develop.

[_Sir_Charles_]

From the Baseball Prospectus article by Jay Jaffe:



BP dead wrong again. Baker's use of them had nothing to do with their problems.

Why would anyone subscribe to these guys anymore? You can get betters stats elsewhere, and their analysis is god-awful.

I have a feeling that these guys (and many others) are Cubs fans and they've got it in for Dusty. I have yet to see this supposed over-use of young arms to the point of them getting injured. I have yet to see this supposed vet-favoritism to the point that he simply puts rooks on the bench and puts them to sleep. The only criticism of Dusty that I heard of prior to him coming here that's actually come true is his aversion to OBP and his poor lineup construction. But to be fair, he really doesn't have many players that have above average OBP to begin with and he also doesn't have players that fit into the prototypical 1-2 holes or cleanup hole.

Good ole' fashioned Dusty bashing, if you ask me. Unwarranted as usual.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Johnny Cueto didn't "fall apart" from anything Dusty did. While I am not a huge Dusty fan, it is quite apparent that all JC needed was rest.

Just saw this on Fay's blog. We need not worry about THIS at least. :O)

Johnny Cueto is not allowed to pitch in Winter Ball. He went over 170 innings for year last night. That kicks in an “extreme fatigue” clause in his contract.

[traderumor]

Zach Links

gotta be a made up internet name, or a golfer

[Tony Cloninger]

Is that clause kind of like the Double Secret Probation clause?

[Kc61]

I don't think the national media gets the Reds. Sometimes I wonder if the local media gets them.

I do think that Walt Jocketty gets the Reds.

And Redszone gets the Reds. Generally speaking, of course.

Thinking back to spring training, amazing that this season is over. I think they took some steps forward. The missing pieces are fewer and more obvious now. Homer Bailey's improvement is the number one positive, IMHO. Optimism.

[HeatherC1212]

I don't think the national media gets the Reds. Sometimes I wonder if the local media gets them.

I do think that Walt Jocketty gets the Reds.

And Redszone gets the Reds. Generally speaking, of course.

Thinking back to spring training, amazing that this season is over. I think they took some steps forward. The missing pieces are fewer and more obvious now. Homer Bailey's improvement is the number one positive, IMHO. Optimism.

Great post. The offseason may feel long right now but if they can do the RIGHT things for this team during it, we may have a lot of good things to look forward to next year.

[HokieRed]

We got 2/3 of what I most hoped for: progress from Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez. I think the first question the FO must address concerns the rotation. Do we have enough without an addition from outside? I don't think so. I want to see Bailey, Cueto, Arroyo, Harang and somebody from outside with Maloney in the 6th spot, Owings, if anywhere, in the pen. I don't care if it's Davis, Marquis, Wolf, Pineiro. I think we need one of them.

[TOBTTReds]

I don't think the national media gets the Reds. Sometimes I wonder if the local media gets them.

I do think that Walt Jocketty gets the Reds.

And Redszone gets the Reds. Generally speaking, of course.

A couple things here:

I think getting the national perspective is important because they can see somethings that fans are blinded by because of their strong connection to a team (sort of like a 'love is blind' thing).

Next, how can Walt get the Reds and Redszone get the Reds at the same time? There are a lot of disagreements (rightfully so) here everytime a move happens. I would say the two biggest moves in the last 10 months have been hugely debated (Taveras and Rolen). I would consider one of those a loss already, and Rolen still has time to prove that it was a good deal (I guess).

[Kc61]

A couple things here:

I think getting the national perspective is important because they can see somethings that fans are blinded by because of their strong connection to a team (sort of like a 'love is blind' thing).

Next, how can Walt get the Reds and Redszone get the Reds at the same time? There are a lot of disagreements (rightfully so) here everytime a move happens. I would say the two biggest moves in the last 10 months have been hugely debated (Taveras and Rolen). I would consider one of those a loss already, and Rolen still has time to prove that it was a good deal (I guess).

My point is that the national media tends to have a superficial understanding of the Reds whereas Walt and folks on this site tend to understand the team more deeply.

As for Walt's moves, you have to look at them in the proper context. Taveras was an attempt to bridge centerfield to Stubbs. Rolen was an attempt to solidify the infield defense and add professional leadership and performance.

Walt understands the future of this team is with certain younger players, augmented by occasional key vets. The Reds will have a breakthrough season soon if they stick to his plan.

[Redsfaithful]

BP really, really hates Dusty Baker. It gets old because it seems to make them pretty lazy when it comes to discussing the Reds.