Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

[bucksfan2]

Average CF, SS, and even C are the hardest things to find in baseball. It is partly the reason why in the past guys like Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. got big time deals. The Reds finally have a guy who fits that bill, and people want to trade him because he has value. To me it seems like a counterproductive way to build a team from the inside out.

[Scrap Irony]

Yeah, he did. Taveras was in Baker's dog house pretty deep because of a perceived lack of work during his DL stint. Or perhaps before. And Stubbs took over, the Reds began to win, and he played well.

Like it or not, that combination makes Stubbs the de-facto starter heading into 2010. Dickerson, IMO, is his back-up in center and an occasional CF starter against tough RH and the likely next option across the OF.

Taveras is likely DFA'ed, as the addition of Balentien (a clearly superior player) paves the way for his dismissal.

[nate]

Yeah, he did. Taveras was in Baker's dog house pretty deep because of a perceived lack of work during his DL stint. Or perhaps before.

Really? I don't remember reading about that. Was it when Dusty mentioned the whole "Wally Pipp" thing?

[Falls City Beer]

Time heals all wounds.

Willy T will come into camp all determined and everything and will hit 320. Jamie Quirk will tinker. Dusty will remember why he loved him in the first place and he'll get the starting job.

Maybe. Though I doubt it. Nevertheless, this is all spittin' in the wind without an ace starter. It is reducible to that: ace = contention; no ace = no contention. (And yes, I've already figured in an improved Bailey; still need another, as there's no reason to expect a pure linear improvement from Bailey).

What's good is the Reds haven't been this close in ages. But then, it's like saying Neptune is closer to the sun than Pluto.

[jojo]

Yes.

What would his value be if, say, he split the difference between above and what he did this year? Say, .730-ish OPS with the same D.

Stubbs finished with a wOBA=.335.

Lets say in a full season next year he posted a wOBA=.317 (splitting the difference between .300 and .335).

In a full season (600 PAs/150 defensive games) he'd be worth -8 runs offensively relative to average, +15 runs defensively (remember that's an guestimate but my eyes say he's really, really good), +2.5 runs for playing centerfield, and +20 runs for the difference between average and replacement.

In other words, he's be worth +30 runs or 3 WAR. That's a slightly above average player (roughly Brandon Phillips or what Rolen has done in his limited playing time over the last few years).

I'd take that without any complaints.

[Scrap Irony]

Really? I don't remember reading about that. Was it when Dusty mentioned the whole "Wally Pipp" thing?

Near that. Another reporter (different time, anyway) interviewed after the Wally Pipp quote and the further explanation mentioned by Baker included a veiled reference at how much hard work Stubbs has put in versus "the other guy" [IIRC].

[VR]

Yes.

[fearofpopvol1]

Maybe. Though I doubt it. Nevertheless, this is all spittin' in the wind without an ace starter. It is reducible to that: ace = contention; no ace = no contention. (And yes, I've already figured in an improved Bailey; still need another, as there's no reason to expect a pure linear improvement from Bailey).

What's good is the Reds haven't been this close in ages. But then, it's like saying Neptune is closer to the sun than Pluto.

I actually completely agree with this. Running out Maloney/Owings/Wells/Ramierz or whoever else isn't going to cut it.

[BRM]

Yeah, he did. Taveras was in Baker's dog house pretty deep because of a perceived lack of work during his DL stint. Or perhaps before. And Stubbs took over, the Reds began to win, and he played well.

Like it or not, that combination makes Stubbs the de-facto starter heading into 2010. Dickerson, IMO, is his back-up in center and an occasional CF starter against tough RH and the likely next option across the OF.

Taveras is likely DFA'ed, as the addition of Balentien (a clearly superior player) paves the way for his dismissal.

I understand where you are coming from and believe me, I agree with you. Stubbs should be the de-facto starter heading into 2010.

That said, I also fully understand why Raisor feels the way he does. Baker loved Willy when he was signed last winter. He continued loving him all the way up until he got hurt, even though his play warranted a benching long before. A hot spring from Willy will probably put him back in the drivers seat for the CF job. Especially if Drew struggles at all. Drew will need to rake during ST to be the starter IMO.

I say all that because I don't think Willy will get DFA'ed this winter. I think he'll be competing for a spot next spring.

[nate]

Stubbs finished with a wOBA=.335.

Lets say in a full season next year he posted a wOBA=.317 (splitting the difference between .300 and .335).

In a full season (600 PAs/150 defensive games) he'd be worth -8 runs offensively relative to average, +15 runs defensively (remember that's an guestimate but my eyes say he's really, really good), +2.5 runs for playing centerfield, and +20 runs for the difference between average and replacement.

In other words, he's be worth +30 runs or 3 WAR. That's a slightly above average player (roughly Brandon Phillips or what Rolen has done in his limited playing time over the last few years).

I'd take that without any complaints.

Yes.

Although the complaints are free!

[Caveat Emperor]

I actually completely agree with this. Running out Maloney/Owings/Wells/Ramierz or whoever else isn't going to cut it.

I think the best possible scenario out of all this would involve the Reds conning someone into taking Harang off their hands, dealing Cordero elsewhere, and then using the combined savings (less than the sum of their contracts -- I expect the Reds would eat some money in both deals) go out and get a TOR starter.

At that point, if the Reds acquired a true TOR starter, I would be OK with running Owings out there as the 5th starter.

[Will M]

Stubbs is one of the best defensive center fielders I have seen in a long time. He finished with a UZR of +6.8 in only 42 games (368.2 innings) and UZR/150 of +23.9. With his defense, if Stubbs can OPS .700 next season I would be happy.

I'd cut Taveras and keep Dickerson around as a backup outfielder...

absolutely. the Reds were very good at the end of 2009. adding Stubbs & losing Willy was a big reason. pencil in Stubbs for CF and Dickerson as a reserve outfielder. then move on to find other ways to improve the team.

for all the fans of trading Stubbs this will mean there is zero chance Willy is DFAed & a 100% chance he is in CF and batting leadoff. barf!

[lollipopcurve]

A hot spring from Willy will probably put him back in the drivers seat for the CF job.

I really don't think Taveras has a shot at starting, no matter what kind of spring he has. If Baker was as partial to him as people fear, he would have played more down the stretch this year.

[BRM]

I really don't think Taveras has a shot at starting, no matter what kind of spring he has. If Baker was as partial to him as people fear, he would have played more down the stretch this year.

I hope you're right. I really do.

[HokieRed]

Agree with FCB but do not think it doable in 2010. That's why we go for a mid-rotation guy this year--Davis, Wolf, Marquis, Pineiro, somebody in that range--take a 10% shot at contention in 2010, trade Harang and Arroyo if we're not in contention, and get the TOR guy for 2011. I'm as much in favor of adding offense as anybody (and would do it in this order C, SS, LF--assuming we'll only do probably one or two of those), but I still think the first question this FO will/must confront concerns the rotation. I think they will see the need to add one starter from outside but I don't expect the TOR guy as long as Harang and Arroyo are on the books.