Turn Off Ads?
Page 6 of 9 FirstFirst ... 23456789 LastLast
Results 76 to 90 of 123

Thread: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

  1. #76
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    1,483

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And most of that came in 2008 when Dickerson had a BABIP of .410. Dickerson again had a solid year in 2009, but also had a BABIP of .360. Is he that special player who can do that year in and year out? Doubtful. So look at what Dickerson is likely to do in the future. 10% walk rate, 25% strikeout rate and solid defense with 10-15 HR's. That is exactly what most people expect from Stubbs next year, if not with more power and better defense.
    No, most of it (about 3/4) came this year. Not that it matters really, the 2008 numbers matter just as much as his very solid 2009 ones do, unless you want to toss them out as September outliers. Of course doing that submarines any argument for Stubbs so I doubt that's the route you want to go. Also, a .360 BABIP isn't that unordinary from a player with a 21.8% LD%.

    If you want to compare what Stubbs and Dickerson are likely to do going forward I'd look at what they've done over the previous two seasons:

    Dickerson:
    MLB (421 PAs): .283/.383/.440 - .823 OPS
    AAA (414 PAs): .287/.384/.479 - .862 OPS

    Stubbs
    MLB (196 PAs): .267/.323/.439 - .762 OPS
    AAA (556 PAs): .272/.353/.379 - .731 OPS

    Let me put it this way, if there were some way to wager on the respective lines that Stubbs and Dickerson put up vs RHP in 2010, I would jump on it in a heartbeat. I can't toss out Dickerson's last 850 PAs as fluky while accepting 200 PAs from Stubbs as indicative of his true skill.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #77
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    35,917

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    No, most of it (about 3/4) came this year. Not that it matters really, the 2008 numbers matter just as much as his very solid 2009 ones do, unless you want to toss them out as September outliers. Of course doing that submarines any argument for Stubbs so I doubt that's the route you want to go. Also, a .360 BABIP isn't that unordinary from a player with a 21.8% LD%.

    If you want to compare what Stubbs and Dickerson are likely to do going forward I'd look at what they've done over the previous two seasons:

    Dickerson:
    MLB (421 PAs): .283/.383/.440 - .823 OPS
    AAA (414 PAs): .287/.384/.479 - .862 OPS

    Stubbs
    MLB (196 PAs): .267/.323/.439 - .762 OPS
    AAA (556 PAs): .272/.353/.379 - .731 OPS

    Let me put it this way, if there were some way to wager on the respective lines that Stubbs and Dickerson put up vs RHP in 2010, I would jump on it in a heartbeat. I can't toss out Dickerson's last 850 PAs as fluky while accepting 200 PAs from Stubbs as indicative of his true skill.
    The good parts of Dickerson's line came in 2008, bringing up his .730 OPS in 2009. Regardless of any of it, look at their true skill levels and estimate their power, walk and strikeout rates. Use those rates and figure out the rest of their line. Figure out who is going to do what. Odds are, they are going to be incredibly similar. The difference is Stubbs runs the bases better, fields better and has better power potential.

    And yes, a .360 BABIP is out of the ordinary for someone with a 21.8% LD rate. Here are the NL players with a 20% or higher LD rate who qualified for a batting title this year, sorted by highest to lowest BABIP.

    Code:
    LD%	BABIP
    25.70%	.394
    21.70%	.372
    20.60%	.366
    22.50%	.365
    20.30%	.356
    21.00%	.351
    24.70%	.348
    21.30%	.345
    21.60%	.341
    22.70%	.338
    23.00%	.327
    23.20%	.325
    20.50%	.324
    20.30%	.318
    21.70%	.315
    24.00%	.310
    21.40%	.310
    22.30%	.308
    22.30%	.299
    20.80%	.297
    20.10%	.290
    20.50%	.289
    20.00%	.287
    20.40%	.286
    20.50%	.284
    21.30%	.281
    21.00%	.281
    20.90%	.278
    20.30%	.271
    20.20%	.270
    As we can see, there are more players under .325 than over .350 with a 20% or higher LD rate in the National League.

  4. #78
    High five! nate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Irvine, CA
    Posts
    6,976

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    I'm fine with an OF of Gomes/Stubbs/Dickerson/Bruce and Taveras*

    *Chicago Cubs
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  5. #79
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, Ga.
    Posts
    10,593

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    In 355 Major League ABs Chris Dickerson has hit .285/.385/.442. That's what you think Drew Stubbs floor is?
    12 points separated the two in OPS in their minor league careers. Stubbs (.765) and Dickerson (.777). I'd say their floor is pretty similar, yep.

    So, if Stubbs is going to be given the skeptic approach for 200 plate appearances in the majors (as is reasonable to do so), I think given their minor league numbers are so similar, so should Dickerson be given the same treatment for 400 plate appearances as 2009 seems to be more in line with his minor league performances.

    All I'm saying is that I do believe they have a very similar floor. Those minor league OPS numbers certainly corroborate that. However, Stubbs has a potentially bright future if this power surge (as scouts have been expecting to show at some point) turns out to be legit.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #80
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    1,483

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    12 points separated the two in OPS in their minor league careers. Stubbs (.765) and Dickerson (.777). I'd say their floor is pretty similar, yep.

    So, if Stubbs is going to be given the skeptic approach for 200 plate appearances in the majors (as is reasonable to do so), I think given their minor league numbers are so similar, so should Dickerson be given the same treatment for 400 plate appearances as 2009 seems to be more in line with his minor league performances.

    All I'm saying is that I do believe they have a very similar floor. Those minor league OPS numbers certainly corroborate that. However, Stubbs has a potentially bright future if this power surge (as scouts have been expecting to show at some point) turns out to be legit.
    One thing I want to point out. The low minors OPS are very similar. Dickerson smashed AAA though, and Stubbs scuffled there. Those things happened in the last year or two, so I think those numbers give a lot more insight into what is likely to happen in 2010 than just citing career minor league numbers.

    As for your last sentence, I could not agree more about the potential of Drew Stubbs. But we are talking about 2010, and who is more likely to have an awful 2010? The guy who's been raking for the last 850 ABs, or the guy who was struggling through AAA with a .730 OPS two months ago? IMO Dickerson's floor is quite a bit higher.

  7. #81
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,753

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post

    As for your last sentence, I could not agree more about the potential of Drew Stubbs. But we are talking about 2010, and who is more likely to have an awful 2010? The guy who's been raking for the last 850 ABs, or the guy who was struggling through AAA with a .730 OPS two months ago? IMO Dickerson's floor is quite a bit higher.
    You need to factor Stubbs GG fielding in CF. Dickerson is a marginal CF. stubbs might also steal you 50 bases.

  8. #82
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,181

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    You need to factor Stubbs GG fielding in CF. Dickerson is a marginal CF. stubbs might also steal you 50 bases.
    Based on what is Dickerson a marginal CF? The only time he's struggled in the OF is when he's played the corners and had to deal with something new. He was always considered an excellent CF in the minors and in an admittedly small sample in the majors, UZR has him as very good in CF.

    Just because Dusty prefers to play Taveras in CF and Dickerson in LF doesn't mean Dickerson isn't actually the better fielder. And I wouldn't judge his ability to play CF based on his taking bad routes when playing the corners for the first time in his career.

    The reality of the situation is that we have no way of knowing who will be the better major leaguer, Stubbs or Dickerson. But what is abundantly clear is that either of them are better options than Taveras. Because Stubbs is 2.5 years younger, I tend to think he'll wind up having the more productive career, but we'd be silly not to give both he and Dickerson opportunities to succeed.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-05-2009 at 09:47 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #83
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,054

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Based on what is Dickerson a marginal CF? The only time he's struggled in the OF is when he's played the corners and had to deal with something new. He was always considered an excellent CF in the minors and in an admittedly small sample in the majors, UZR has him as very good in CF.

    Just because Dusty prefers to play Taveras in CF and Dickerson in LF doesn't mean Dickerson isn't actually the better fielder. And I wouldn't judge his ability to play CF based on his taking bad routes when playing the corners for the first time in his career.

    The reality of the situation is that we have no way of knowing who will be the better major leaguer, Stubbs or Dickerson. But what is abundantly clear is that either of them are better options than Taveras. Because Stubbs is 2.5 years younger, I tend to think he'll wind up having the more productive career, but we'd be silly not to give both he and Dickerson opportunities to succeed.
    I concur on all counts, well stated.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  10. #84
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    19,135

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    I tend to think that both Stubbs and Dickerson could be league average CFers right now.

    While we all dream of more, it's at least nice to think that CFer probably shouldn't be a problem next season even if it isn't an advantage.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #85
    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Melbourne, FL
    Posts
    4,863

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    My main concern with Dickerson is, where did the power go? His IsoP this year was .098, down there with sluggers like Adam Rosales and Paul Janish, at an age when power should be maturing. It's good that he kept getting on base, but people were concerned about Stubbs' ability to draw enough walks against major-league pitching to keep his OBP up if he couldn't hit for power, and Dickerson will face the same problem soon if he doesn't get some thunder back into his bat.
    Not all who wander are lost

  12. #86
    Member VR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Vancouver, Wa
    Posts
    8,591

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Dickerson doesn't get the jumps Stubbs does.....he's also a very poor fielder 'at the fence'. Other than that, no complaints on the kid.

    That said....I think CDick is at league average, Stubbs in the upper 10%.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

  13. #87
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    The 513
    Posts
    12,740

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    They're both cheap, so there's absolutely no harm in keeping both and letting their play sort out any issues of starting / backup. Dickerson is a great bench player to have in that he can play all 3 outfield positions, can run, and has extra-base power.

    Plus, one is RH the other is LH -- this situation screams "keep both." I understand making a deal if you get an opportunity to improve a needed area of the ballclub, but right now you've gotta be happy with the teams' CF situation.
    Championships Matter.
    24 Years and Counting...

  14. #88
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    6,458

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    They're both cheap, so there's absolutely no harm in keeping both and letting their play sort out any issues of starting / backup. Dickerson is a great bench player to have in that he can play all 3 outfield positions, can run, and has extra-base power.

    Plus, one is RH the other is LH -- this situation screams "keep both." I understand making a deal if you get an opportunity to improve a needed area of the ballclub, but right now you've gotta be happy with the teams' CF situation.
    I think the one to package is Heisey. Thoughts?
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  15. #89
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,054

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I think the one to package is Heisey. Thoughts?
    I wouldn't he won't bring back enough value on his own to make a difference, I think he's a little better version of Denorfia who brought back who McBeth and Jukich? He brings more value eventually as cheap but quality OF depth. He's a small piece to the eventual puzzle. That said in some sort of package deal he could help in that way.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  16. #90
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: Drew Stubbs for CF in '10?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Are we really going to hold Chris Dickerson back again? What does he have to do to prove himself for Pete's sakes?
    Date The Dusty's daughter?


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25