It doesn't seem to matter how many good things the kid has done in his career. He continues to be defined by his inablity to walk at an "acceptible" rate to satisfy most RZer's. So I did some in depth research to figure out where I stand on the kid and here is what I came up with.
At 18 - 19 he started in GCL Rookie Ball.
His line was:
.280 .305 .407 for a .712 OPS
He was promoted to Billings for a few games and produced a line of:
.333 .333 .417 for a .750 OPS
Combined between the 2 levels his totals were:
.294 .314 .408 for a .722 OPS
He averaged 1 XBH every 2.7 games / 10.9 AB's / 3.15 Hits
He averaged 1 RBI every 7 AB's or 1.68 games - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 9 games or 37.33 AB's
He averaged 1 K every 5.21 AB's or 19.2% of his AB's
The next year at Dayton his first full season of baseball at 19 - 20
His line was:
.268 .301 .463 for a .764 OPS (.042 Higher)
He averaged 1 XBH every 2.7 games (Again) / 10.7 AB's (.2 Lower)/ 2.86 Hits (.29 Lwr)
He averaged 1 RBI every 6.19 AB's (.81 Lwr) 1.50 games (.18 Lwr) - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 5.87 games (3.13 Lwr) or every 24.22 AB's (12.11 Lwr)
He averaged 1 K every 3.46 AB's (1.75 more) or 28.9% of his AB's (9.7% Higher)
Everything improved but his K rate which was dramatically worse. Being his first full season on pro ball fatigue coulda had alot to with it. He had 316 additional AB's than the previous year.
At 20 - 21 he advanced to High A Sarasota a hitters nightmare.
His line was:
.277 .303 .496 for a .799 OPS
Just for comparison Joey Votto at 21 - 22 posted a line of:
.256 .330 .425 for a .755 OPS with a K rate of 23.6% or every 4.23 AB's
Francisco's season was:
He averaged 1 XBH every 2.12 games (.58 Lwr) / 8.92 AB's (1.78 Lwr)/ 2.38 Hits (.48 Lwr)
He averaged 1 RBI every 5.82 AB's (.37 Lwr) 1.38 games (.12 Lwr) - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 6.68 games (.81 Worse) or every 28.15 AB's (3.93 Worse)
He averaged 1 K every 4.35 AB's (.89 Lwr) or 23% of his AB's (5.9% Lwr)
He hit 23 HR's in 2007 vs 25 in 2006 but had 34 2B's vs 21. He also had 2 addtional RBI at 92 to 90 in in 8 less games in 18 less AB's...
Everything once again improved in a much tougher Leauge except for his BB Rate which dropped. But the improvement in his K rate as well as Slugging % (.36 Better in FSL) was above the drop in BB's. Also note he just barely struck out less % and AB wise than Votto did when Francisco was a year younger.
This year as a 21 - 22 year old he played at 3 levels AA AAA and MLB.
His combined line for all 3 levels including the AAA playoffs was:
.301 (.24 Higher) .332 (.29 Higher) .526 (.30 Higher) for a .852 OPS (.53 Higher)
He averaged 1 XBH every 2.10 games (.02 Lwr) / 8.53 AB's (.39 Lwr)/ 2.56 Hits (.18 Higher)
He averaged 1 RBI every 5.44 AB's (.38 Lwr) 1.34 games (.04 Lwr) - Includes BB's
He averaged 1 BB every 5.22 games (1.46 Higher) or every 20.9 AB's (5.96 Better)
He averaged 1 K every 4.79 AB's (.64 Lwr) or 20.9% of his AB's (2.1% Lwr)
Once again improved in every single catagory. He put the ball in play 447 times this year for a .385 BABIP a .676 SLG with BABIP and he only hit into 10 DP's all year. In 2008 it was .364 in 2007 it was .383. He is legit. Sure he doesn't put up sexy OBP numbers. He is what he is though. A kid with 50 HR potiential who knows how to drive in runs and will end up a .280 to .300 hitter. I'd take a .315 -.325 OBP for 35 HR's and 110 RBI's. He has adjusted and improved at every level. I don't think he will be a case of the league figuring him out. I think he figures out the league and dominates. If you keep in mind he has always been 1 to 2 years behind the pitching talent he has faced but continued to improve. One last little stat for you. His OPS by level as my last showing of his progress.
Isn't this what you look for in a true prospect? Improvement in all aspects of his game? Rising to the challenge of a harder level? Keep in mind he wont even be 23 until almost the All Star Break next year. I expect huge numbers out of Juan next year be it at AAA or MLB. Why? because he has proven for 3 years in a row he is a hard worker who makes adjustment to improve.