Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 17

Thread: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

  1. #1
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Centerville, Ohio
    Posts
    1,420

    Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    It doesn't seem to matter how many good things the kid has done in his career. He continues to be defined by his inablity to walk at an "acceptible" rate to satisfy most RZer's. So I did some in depth research to figure out where I stand on the kid and here is what I came up with.

    At 18 - 19 he started in GCL Rookie Ball.

    His line was:

    .280 .305 .407 for a .712 OPS

    He was promoted to Billings for a few games and produced a line of:

    .333 .333 .417 for a .750 OPS

    Combined between the 2 levels his totals were:

    .294 .314 .408 for a .722 OPS

    He averaged 1 XBH every 2.7 games / 10.9 AB's / 3.15 Hits
    He averaged 1 RBI every 7 AB's or 1.68 games - Includes BB's
    He averaged 1 BB every 9 games or 37.33 AB's
    He averaged 1 K every 5.21 AB's or 19.2% of his AB's

    The next year at Dayton his first full season of baseball at 19 - 20

    His line was:

    .268 .301 .463 for a .764 OPS (.042 Higher)


    He averaged 1 XBH every 2.7 games (Again) / 10.7 AB's (.2 Lower)/ 2.86 Hits (.29 Lwr)
    He averaged 1 RBI every 6.19 AB's (.81 Lwr) 1.50 games (.18 Lwr) - Includes BB's
    He averaged 1 BB every 5.87 games (3.13 Lwr) or every 24.22 AB's (12.11 Lwr)
    He averaged 1 K every 3.46 AB's (1.75 more) or 28.9% of his AB's (9.7% Higher)

    Everything improved but his K rate which was dramatically worse. Being his first full season on pro ball fatigue coulda had alot to with it. He had 316 additional AB's than the previous year.

    At 20 - 21 he advanced to High A Sarasota a hitters nightmare.

    His line was:

    .277 .303 .496 for a .799 OPS

    Just for comparison Joey Votto at 21 - 22 posted a line of:

    .256 .330 .425 for a .755 OPS with a K rate of 23.6% or every 4.23 AB's

    Francisco's season was:

    He averaged 1 XBH every 2.12 games (.58 Lwr) / 8.92 AB's (1.78 Lwr)/ 2.38 Hits (.48 Lwr)
    He averaged 1 RBI every 5.82 AB's (.37 Lwr) 1.38 games (.12 Lwr) - Includes BB's
    He averaged 1 BB every 6.68 games (.81 Worse) or every 28.15 AB's (3.93 Worse)
    He averaged 1 K every 4.35 AB's (.89 Lwr) or 23% of his AB's (5.9% Lwr)

    He hit 23 HR's in 2007 vs 25 in 2006 but had 34 2B's vs 21. He also had 2 addtional RBI at 92 to 90 in in 8 less games in 18 less AB's...

    Everything once again improved in a much tougher Leauge except for his BB Rate which dropped. But the improvement in his K rate as well as Slugging % (.36 Better in FSL) was above the drop in BB's. Also note he just barely struck out less % and AB wise than Votto did when Francisco was a year younger.


    This year as a 21 - 22 year old he played at 3 levels AA AAA and MLB.

    His combined line for all 3 levels including the AAA playoffs was:

    .301 (.24 Higher) .332 (.29 Higher) .526 (.30 Higher) for a .852 OPS (.53 Higher)

    He averaged 1 XBH every 2.10 games (.02 Lwr) / 8.53 AB's (.39 Lwr)/ 2.56 Hits (.18 Higher)
    He averaged 1 RBI every 5.44 AB's (.38 Lwr) 1.34 games (.04 Lwr) - Includes BB's
    He averaged 1 BB every 5.22 games (1.46 Higher) or every 20.9 AB's (5.96 Better)
    He averaged 1 K every 4.79 AB's (.64 Lwr) or 20.9% of his AB's (2.1% Lwr)

    Once again improved in every single catagory. He put the ball in play 447 times this year for a .385 BABIP a .676 SLG with BABIP and he only hit into 10 DP's all year. In 2008 it was .364 in 2007 it was .383. He is legit. Sure he doesn't put up sexy OBP numbers. He is what he is though. A kid with 50 HR potiential who knows how to drive in runs and will end up a .280 to .300 hitter. I'd take a .315 -.325 OBP for 35 HR's and 110 RBI's. He has adjusted and improved at every level. I don't think he will be a case of the league figuring him out. I think he figures out the league and dominates. If you keep in mind he has always been 1 to 2 years behind the pitching talent he has faced but continued to improve. One last little stat for you. His OPS by level as my last showing of his progress.

    GCL .712
    PIO .750
    MWL .764
    FSL .799
    SOU .818
    INT .982
    MLB 1.139

    Isn't this what you look for in a true prospect? Improvement in all aspects of his game? Rising to the challenge of a harder level? Keep in mind he wont even be 23 until almost the All Star Break next year. I expect huge numbers out of Juan next year be it at AAA or MLB. Why? because he has proven for 3 years in a row he is a hard worker who makes adjustment to improve.
    Last edited by nemesis; 10-09-2009 at 05:41 PM.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

    Nothing tastes as good as being fit feels...

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    10,807

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    I am not sure why he hasn't drawn more walks. Obviously the times I saw him on television were limited to about 20 AB. But he seemed to work the count and didn't swing at just anything. I guess numbers don't lie. But he seemed to have a measure of discipline about him.

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Posts
    1,154

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Francisco should definitely be in on the left field competition next year.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    way-east of cincinnati
    Posts
    1,164

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    He is a year away from MLB, or he'll be another Wily Mo.

  6. #5
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Centerville, Ohio
    Posts
    1,420

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Quote Originally Posted by gedred69 View Post
    He is a year away from MLB, or he'll be another Wily Mo.
    WHy can't he be the next Ryan Howard?
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

    Nothing tastes as good as being fit feels...

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    4,475

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Quote Originally Posted by gedred69 View Post
    He is a year away from MLB, or he'll be another Wily Mo.
    Absolutely no comparison. This kid can hit anything, fastballs or breaking balls. Plus its obvious from watching his at bats in September that he can be as selective as you want him to be.

    No way they keep Francisco off the team next year. He'll be Rolen's caddie and the first Pinch hitter off the bench.
    Last edited by Mutaman; 10-09-2009 at 11:58 PM.

  8. #7
    Plan to be spontaneous Jefferson24's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Illinios
    Posts
    1,199

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    I'm already catching myself getting excited about next year. Is that wrong?
    We only live in patches. - H. G. Wells

  9. #8
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    4,048

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferson24 View Post
    I'm already catching myself getting excited about next year. Is that wrong?
    I said the same thing yesterday.... haha
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
    2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
    2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1

  10. #9
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Posts
    651

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    WHy can't he be the next Ryan Howard?
    Because unlike Howard, he can't draw a walk.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=howard001rya

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    way-east of cincinnati
    Posts
    1,164

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    Because unlike Howard, he can't draw a walk.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=howard001rya
    Ahhhhh! Sanity. Please, please, please don't rush this guy. Being "Rolen's Caddy" and the "1st pinch hitter off the bench" will not give him what he needs to become the next "Ryan Howard".

  12. #11
    Moderator Plus Plus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    1,509

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Quote Originally Posted by nmculbreth View Post
    Because unlike Howard, he can't draw a walk.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=howard001rya
    +1

    Leave him in AAA to learn how to walk, and then send him up to the big leagues to hit more 496 foot homers.
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Thus his team was punished

    Long live punishment
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    The base you want to acquire is home.

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    65

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    If he continued his selectivity that he showed in his brief stint then great i can live with it. But I'm sure once he "thinks he has made it" you'll see the real Juan Francisco. That selectivity he showed leads me to believe he knows he needs to work on that aspect of his game. He doesn't need to concern himself with adding more walks to his stat line just improve his selectivity to what he can drive without the need to swing from the heels and the BB's will take care of themselves. A nice byproduct of that is increased Slg% BTW. More time in AAA is absolutely neccessary.

  14. #13
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Crown
    Posts
    3,774

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    The thing I don't like about BABIP is it doesn't tell you how the ball was hit. When Bruce was in his funk this past season, I watched nearly every game and all he did was pop up and hit KGjr grounders to 2b. His BABIP was low for a reason. Anyway, on the flip side of that, Juan's BABIP is a nice fat .385 or whatever because he KILLS the ball. I'm ready to see what he can do...in September.

  15. #14
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Lebanon
    Posts
    7,067

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Francisco should be our starting first baseman, and Joey (my favorite) should move to LF. I'd love to get Francisco's big bat in the starting lineup.

  16. #15
    Member muddie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Raleigh, N.C.
    Posts
    1,974

    Re: Juan Francisco's MILB Career

    Watching him play third base here this year (Mudcats AA) his biggest liability was his glove. The guy can hit, no problem. When he was promoted to Louisville and played the Bulls in IL playoffs, we went over to see a game. Francisco was at third and had a lot of chances...handled them all very well. I agree with the point that he is working to make the adjustments necessary to move up and be better.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25