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Thread: 2010 Cincinnati Offense, RCAA, & Assumptions

  1. #1
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    2010 Cincinnati Offense, RCAA, & Assumptions

    Posters have argued that, if Jocketty and the Cincinnati brass stay put with the team as is, the Red offense will be well below average. Other posters have argued the offense improved as the season wore on and, with a jump from Jay Bruce, health, and a lack of really poor years by key contributors (as per seasonal averages), the offense can actually be pretty decent.

    By RCAA, then (from FanGrahs.com):

    1B
    Votto 40 RCAA
    Comment: Same as 2009. I'm assuming good health, no mental relapse, and a slightly lesser overall season, though still All-Star caliber.

    RF
    Bruce 20 RCAA
    Comment: Bruce is the key to the improved offense and a competing club. He's capable of a season like this (think 2009 Bobby Abreau and his line of 293/390/435/ 825 OPS, tough with less OBP and much more power) and could blossom even more.

    LF
    Gomes 15 RCAA
    Comment: I think he'll play much more (around 500 PAs or so) and, if healthy, put up numbers slightly less than those he put up this year. (Look at his 2005 rookie year as an indication.) An OPS between 810-840 with a day or two off per week, depending on match-ups, with Balentien backing him up.

    3B
    Rolen 12 RCAA
    Comment: That's his average this season. That's also in about 130 games. If he gets hurt, my guess is either Francisco or Frazier come up to replace him for a DL stint or two. (Francisco graded out as 3+ RCAA, but that's not likely to happen again, IMO.

    2B
    Phillips 4 RCAA
    Comment: His approximate numbers from 2009.

    CF
    Stubbs/ Dickerson 5 RCAA
    Comment: The biggest difference between 2009 and a proposed 2010 is not a new player, but getting rid of an old one. Taveras cost the Reds 25 runs last year offensvely. His replacements, Stubbs and Dickerson, should be around league average to slightly better, if their 2009 numbers can be believed.

    C
    Hanigan/ FA -10 RCAA
    Comment: Neither Hanigan nor Hernandez were great in 09, and neither Hanigan nor Hernandez's replacement should be expected to be so this year as well.

    SS
    Janish -25 RCAA
    Comment: This is about doubling his 09 numbers. Believe it or not, that's an improvement overall from 2009.

    If you add all these up, your primary offensive players total 61 RCAA. Subtract 50 runs for pitchers and 11 for back-ups (though Balentien grades out above average and should see many more ABs next season) and the offense is exactly average.
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
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  3. #2
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Cincinnati Offense, RCAA, & Assumptions

    You pretty much hit the proverbial nail...I'm a believer that this offense could be pretty good BUT that reqires replacing one of those 2 weak bats. The obvious place is SS, the rub is in getting one. I'd argue that overall Hanigan, with his handling of the staff,who all seem to like pitching to him, and his defense, is worth the hit on O, but Janish despite his great D is simply too big a liability. -25? That is suckitude on a awesome scale.

  4. #3
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Cincinnati Offense, RCAA, & Assumptions

    What is Milw Hardy's RCAA? Everyone seems to love him

  5. #4
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2010 Cincinnati Offense, RCAA, & Assumptions

    Bruce needs to bust out. If he does, the offense should be fine (barring a Dusty inflicted handicap). If not, it will struggle without additions. I'm still a skeptic on Stubbs and I fear that there will be too many days with both Stubbs and Dickerson in the line-up. Those two need to stick to splitting CF and being defensive replacements. If Stubbs and Dickerson combine for a .750 to .775 OPS in CF with really good to great defense and some speed, then CF will be a plus position. If they both play at the same time, LF falls to below average and the CF position will suffer from over-exposure IMO. Add in that we already know that three positions will be dragging the offense down (SS, C and P) and the team needs production from the OF. Keeping the CF types out of LF while adding some pop to the line-up with Gomes, Balentien or some yet to be named LH bat, will go a long way to shoring up those two spots. Votto and an improved Bruce (which is not automatic BTW) have a lot to overcome with a bottom third that is so poor offensively. If the LF and CF spots can't be at least average, they just won't be able to do it IMO.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-11-2009 at 09:15 AM.
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