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Thread: Winter Ball '09-'10.

  1. #151
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    When he starts doing that against major leaguers let me know. Career MiLB OBP suggest he makes an out 69% of the time he steps to the plate. That is about as easy of an out as it comes this side of pitchers.

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  3. #152
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    When he starts doing that against major leaguers let me know. Career MiLB OBP suggest he makes an out 69% of the time he steps to the plate. That is about as easy of an out as it comes this side of pitchers.
    Yeah and slg .500... Hits 30 HR and drives in about 100 runs a year... How many guys on the ML level do we have that does that?
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    When he starts doing that against major leaguers let me know. Career MiLB OBP suggest he makes an out 69% of the time he steps to the plate. That is about as easy of an out as it comes this side of pitchers.
    For someone who pounds the zone about peripherals you sure do focus hard on Fransisco's low ob% without acknowledging his massive production.
    If you can't be a good example... then you'll just have to be a horrible warning...

    Nothing tastes as good as being fit feels...

  5. #154
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    Yeah and slg .500... Hits 30 HR and drives in about 100 runs a year... How many guys on the ML level do we have that does that?
    Until Francisco does it at the MLB level it doesn't matter one bit that he did it at the minor league level. How many times is someone going to have to show the career OPS for guys with a 3.50 or worse K/BB rate before it clicks that Francisco isn't going to be some stud at the plate without an incredible change in his plate approach?

    For someone who pounds the zone about peripherals you sure do focus hard on Fransisco's low ob% without acknowledging his massive production.
    I don't care about his production if its not likely to continue going forward, and its not.

    Here is every player with 1500 at bats since 1993 with a K/BB of 3.50 or worse at the major league level (Francisco's BEST year was 4.55 this season at AA.... or not even close to as good as this rate):
    Code:
    Player	         2B	3B	HR	W	IW	K	Avg	OB%	Slg	OPS	K/BB
    Olivo, Miguel	110	13	73	79	12	557	.241	.275	.411	.686	7.05
    Duncan, Mariano	110	10	34	55	2	377	.284	.307	.410	.717	6.85
    Dunston, Shawon	135	24	77	66	6	418	.283	.306	.443	.748	6.33
    Paquette, Craig	128	10	99	120	6	620	.239	.274	.411	.685	5.17
    Greene, Todd	82	3	71	67	8	332	.252	.286	.444	.730	4.96
    Pena, Wily Mo	67	5	77	106	5	520	.253	.307	.447	.753	4.91
    Patterson, C	161	30	104	169	19	768	.253	.291	.407	.698	4.54
    Gil, Benji	75	12	32	102	1	448	.237	.283	.358	.641	4.39
    Abbott, Kurt	109	23	62	133	11	571	.256	.305	.423	.728	4.29
    Benjamin, Mike	101	13	19	92	15	377	.239	.287	.349	.636	4.10
    Borders, Pat	84	4	28	79	5	311	.249	.284	.349	.632	3.94
    Berroa, Angel	116	21	46	114	12	448	.260	.305	.378	.682	3.93
    Meares, Pat	157	24	58	150	11	588	.258	.299	.374	.673	3.92
    Guerrero, Wil	53	30	11	64	2	249	.282	.308	.369	.677	3.89
    Baldelli, Rocco	94	17	52	90	8	346	.281	.325	.445	.769	3.84
    Gonzalez, Alex	234	26	106	216	41	814	.248	.295	.399	.695	3.77
    Francoeur, Jeff	117	10	73	115	19	430	.268	.312	.434	.746	3.74
    Soriano, Alfo	309	23	270	298	46	1069	.282	.329	.518	.847	3.59
    Hernandez, Jose	191	32	168	381	40	1358	.254	.314	.422	.736	3.56
    Guillen, Jose	275	23	186	267	28	940	.273	.323	.446	.769	3.52
    There is one player on that list with an .800 OPS for his career. One. Francisco has a LONG way to go before he is ready to produce at the major league level over the long haul.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 12-22-2009 at 11:27 PM.

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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Another ho-hum night at the ballpark for Henry Rodriguez... 2-4 with a double. Now hitting .404/.429/.617 in the big league version of the Venezuelan Winter League after hitting .352/.385/.516 in the minor league version of the league.

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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Another ho-hum night at the ballpark for Henry Rodriguez... 2-4 with a double. Now hitting .404/.429/.617 in the big league version of the Venezuelan Winter League after hitting .352/.385/.516 in the minor league version of the league.
    Why don't you dog him like Francisco.....as he has 0 walks...hum???

  8. #157
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by sixfigure View Post
    Why don't you dog him like Francisco.....as he has 0 walks...hum???
    Probably because Rodriguez walks on average every 10.86 PA while Francisco walks once every 26.28 PA. Night and day.

  9. #158
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by sixfigure View Post
    Why don't you dog him like Francisco.....as he has 0 walks...hum???
    I don't dog Francisco, I point out that he has a long way to go. I also saw Henry Rodriguez this year post a K/BB of 2.57, a number that can clearly work at the major league level. Better than Francisco's career best by over 2.00 in a single minor league season. He also has 2 walks and 7 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances in the VWL after having 5 walks and 8 strikeouts in 129 plate appearances in the minor league version of the league as a 19 year old.

    So even if I were 'dogging' Francisco and not Rodriguez it would be because one guy doesn't show incredibly poor plate discipline that has never worked for someone at the major league level and the other one shows plate discipline that has worked at the major league level.

  10. #159
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Until Francisco does it at the MLB level it doesn't matter one bit that he did it at the minor league level.
    That applies to power but not OBP?

    If Cisco did what he did in the 2009 season and added 1 time on base in 30 plate appearances, it would place him in the top 5 on the Reds' roster in OBP. Just ahead of Scott Rolen. But he doesn't. He makes an out that 1 time out of 30. That makes him an easy out. Right.

  11. #160
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by GOYA View Post
    That applies to power but not OBP?

    If Cisco did what he did in the 2009 season and added 1 time on base in 30 plate appearances, it would place him in the top 5 on the Reds' roster in OBP. Just ahead of Scott Rolen. But he doesn't. He makes an out that 1 time out of 30. That makes him an easy out. Right.
    Except he isn't likely to do that. He had a .312 BABIP in AA, something that is repeatable. His OBP was .317. His BABIP at AAA and Cincinnati was pushing .500, something nowhere near repeatable. Toss those out as things you can expect. His time at AA was far and away his best showing of his minor league career. He had his best K/BB by a ton. He had a .317 OBP that season. That is probably the highest you are going to see from him at the major league level unless he fixes his issues.

  12. #161
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Are there guys that in minors that had average stats and then once called up the light went on and got dialed in and put up very very good stats in the majors, I think thats what Cisco will do, get dialed in and impress you Doug, I think it can happen my friend, if look at his numbers since getting called up and what he's done in winter ball he seems dialed in to me, just try to throw away his other stats and look at his last six months

  13. #162
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    Are there guys that in minors that had average stats and then once called up the light went on and got dialed in and put up very very good stats in the majors, I think thats what Cisco will do, get dialed in and impress you Doug, I think it can happen my friend, if look at his numbers since getting called up and what he's done in winter ball he seems dialed in to me, just try to throw away his other stats and look at his last six months
    Even with looking at his last 6 months, his K/BB rate is terrible and history shows that hardly anyone has ever overcome a rate that poorly (even his 2009 rate by itself) and become even an iffy hitter. I have hope that some things I saw last year will click with him over the long haul, but his winter league isn't doing much for me. He has 7 intentional walks, something he won't get at the major league level, much less in less than 200 PA. Take those out and he has 6 walks and 41 strikeouts, or nearly a 7-1 K/BB rate. That simply won't come close to working at the major league level.

  14. #163
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    When he starts doing that against major leaguers let me know. Career MiLB OBP suggest he makes an out 69% of the time he steps to the plate. That is about as easy of an out as it comes this side of pitchers.
    What did the MiLB numbers say about Stubbs? No power. Stubbs in his brief time with the Reds proved those numbers wrong. Could be possible with Cisco as well. I agree that I don't think he will ever walk at a high rate but his patience could improve over time.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  15. #164
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    What did the MiLB numbers say about Stubbs? No power. Stubbs in his brief time with the Reds proved those numbers wrong. Could be possible with Cisco as well. I agree that I don't think he will ever walk at a high rate but his patience could improve over time.
    The difference was scouting said Stubbs had power. If you watched him all season you saw the power show up from time to time. That doesn't happen with Francisco. Scouting reports say he is too aggressive. The numbers say he is too aggressive. I hope it happens. Heck, I even saw a flash or two of him getting it while in Louisville/Cincinnati... but its not like power. You can see a guy hit 3-4 HR's and know the power is in there. You can't really see patience with a player 3 or 4 times and see the same thing.

  16. #165
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Winter Ball '09-'10.

    I am not going to get all that excited about whether or not Cisco walks in winter ball or not. The latin game is a little different than the MLB version as you have a lot more free swingers south of the border. Now if Cisco comes to AAA sporting that hacktastic swing of his than I will start to scratch my head and realize that some things will never change.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.


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