When he starts doing that against major leaguers let me know. Career MiLB OBP suggest he makes an out 69% of the time he steps to the plate. That is about as easy of an out as it comes this side of pitchers.Originally Posted by GOYA
When he starts doing that against major leaguers let me know. Career MiLB OBP suggest he makes an out 69% of the time he steps to the plate. That is about as easy of an out as it comes this side of pitchers.
Yeah and slg .500... Hits 30 HR and drives in about 100 runs a year... How many guys on the ML level do we have that does that?
For someone who pounds the zone about peripherals you sure do focus hard on Fransisco's low ob% without acknowledging his massive production.
Until Francisco does it at the MLB level it doesn't matter one bit that he did it at the minor league level. How many times is someone going to have to show the career OPS for guys with a 3.50 or worse K/BB rate before it clicks that Francisco isn't going to be some stud at the plate without an incredible change in his plate approach?
I don't care about his production if its not likely to continue going forward, and its not.For someone who pounds the zone about peripherals you sure do focus hard on Fransisco's low ob% without acknowledging his massive production.
Here is every player with 1500 at bats since 1993 with a K/BB of 3.50 or worse at the major league level (Francisco's BEST year was 4.55 this season at AA.... or not even close to as good as this rate):
There is one player on that list with an .800 OPS for his career. One. Francisco has a LONG way to go before he is ready to produce at the major league level over the long haul.Code:Player 2B 3B HR W IW K Avg OB% Slg OPS K/BB Olivo, Miguel 110 13 73 79 12 557 .241 .275 .411 .686 7.05 Duncan, Mariano 110 10 34 55 2 377 .284 .307 .410 .717 6.85 Dunston, Shawon 135 24 77 66 6 418 .283 .306 .443 .748 6.33 Paquette, Craig 128 10 99 120 6 620 .239 .274 .411 .685 5.17 Greene, Todd 82 3 71 67 8 332 .252 .286 .444 .730 4.96 Pena, Wily Mo 67 5 77 106 5 520 .253 .307 .447 .753 4.91 Patterson, C 161 30 104 169 19 768 .253 .291 .407 .698 4.54 Gil, Benji 75 12 32 102 1 448 .237 .283 .358 .641 4.39 Abbott, Kurt 109 23 62 133 11 571 .256 .305 .423 .728 4.29 Benjamin, Mike 101 13 19 92 15 377 .239 .287 .349 .636 4.10 Borders, Pat 84 4 28 79 5 311 .249 .284 .349 .632 3.94 Berroa, Angel 116 21 46 114 12 448 .260 .305 .378 .682 3.93 Meares, Pat 157 24 58 150 11 588 .258 .299 .374 .673 3.92 Guerrero, Wil 53 30 11 64 2 249 .282 .308 .369 .677 3.89 Baldelli, Rocco 94 17 52 90 8 346 .281 .325 .445 .769 3.84 Gonzalez, Alex 234 26 106 216 41 814 .248 .295 .399 .695 3.77 Francoeur, Jeff 117 10 73 115 19 430 .268 .312 .434 .746 3.74 Soriano, Alfo 309 23 270 298 46 1069 .282 .329 .518 .847 3.59 Hernandez, Jose 191 32 168 381 40 1358 .254 .314 .422 .736 3.56 Guillen, Jose 275 23 186 267 28 940 .273 .323 .446 .769 3.52
Last edited by dougdirt; 12-22-2009 at 11:27 PM.
Another ho-hum night at the ballpark for Henry Rodriguez... 2-4 with a double. Now hitting .404/.429/.617 in the big league version of the Venezuelan Winter League after hitting .352/.385/.516 in the minor league version of the league.
Why don't you dog him like Francisco.....as he has 0 walks...hum???
Probably because Rodriguez walks on average every 10.86 PA while Francisco walks once every 26.28 PA. Night and day.
I don't dog Francisco, I point out that he has a long way to go. I also saw Henry Rodriguez this year post a K/BB of 2.57, a number that can clearly work at the major league level. Better than Francisco's career best by over 2.00 in a single minor league season. He also has 2 walks and 7 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances in the VWL after having 5 walks and 8 strikeouts in 129 plate appearances in the minor league version of the league as a 19 year old.
So even if I were 'dogging' Francisco and not Rodriguez it would be because one guy doesn't show incredibly poor plate discipline that has never worked for someone at the major league level and the other one shows plate discipline that has worked at the major league level.
That applies to power but not OBP?
If Cisco did what he did in the 2009 season and added 1 time on base in 30 plate appearances, it would place him in the top 5 on the Reds' roster in OBP. Just ahead of Scott Rolen. But he doesn't. He makes an out that 1 time out of 30. That makes him an easy out. Right.
Except he isn't likely to do that. He had a .312 BABIP in AA, something that is repeatable. His OBP was .317. His BABIP at AAA and Cincinnati was pushing .500, something nowhere near repeatable. Toss those out as things you can expect. His time at AA was far and away his best showing of his minor league career. He had his best K/BB by a ton. He had a .317 OBP that season. That is probably the highest you are going to see from him at the major league level unless he fixes his issues.
Are there guys that in minors that had average stats and then once called up the light went on and got dialed in and put up very very good stats in the majors, I think thats what Cisco will do, get dialed in and impress you Doug, I think it can happen my friend, if look at his numbers since getting called up and what he's done in winter ball he seems dialed in to me, just try to throw away his other stats and look at his last six months
Even with looking at his last 6 months, his K/BB rate is terrible and history shows that hardly anyone has ever overcome a rate that poorly (even his 2009 rate by itself) and become even an iffy hitter. I have hope that some things I saw last year will click with him over the long haul, but his winter league isn't doing much for me. He has 7 intentional walks, something he won't get at the major league level, much less in less than 200 PA. Take those out and he has 6 walks and 41 strikeouts, or nearly a 7-1 K/BB rate. That simply won't come close to working at the major league level.
What did the MiLB numbers say about Stubbs? No power. Stubbs in his brief time with the Reds proved those numbers wrong. Could be possible with Cisco as well. I agree that I don't think he will ever walk at a high rate but his patience could improve over time.
If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.
The difference was scouting said Stubbs had power. If you watched him all season you saw the power show up from time to time. That doesn't happen with Francisco. Scouting reports say he is too aggressive. The numbers say he is too aggressive. I hope it happens. Heck, I even saw a flash or two of him getting it while in Louisville/Cincinnati... but its not like power. You can see a guy hit 3-4 HR's and know the power is in there. You can't really see patience with a player 3 or 4 times and see the same thing.
I am not going to get all that excited about whether or not Cisco walks in winter ball or not. The latin game is a little different than the MLB version as you have a lot more free swingers south of the border. Now if Cisco comes to AAA sporting that hacktastic swing of his than I will start to scratch my head and realize that some things will never change.
If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.
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