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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

Voters
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  • Yonder Alonso

    102 69.86%
  • Zack Cozart

    0 0%
  • Juan Francisco

    18 12.33%
  • Todd Frazier

    3 2.05%
  • Chris Heisey

    4 2.74%
  • Mike Leake

    9 6.16%
  • Yorman Rodriguez

    8 5.48%
  • Travis Wood

    2 1.37%
  • Other - name him

    0 0%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

  1. #31
    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Defense is an important issue as well. He's a good prospect at 3B, but if he has to move to the OF, well, Balentien's had better numbers at Francisco's age/level (granted PCL) and nobody's talking about him except as a 4th outfielder.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    I like JF but he has to walk more. He can and will cut his strikeouts, I think, but I don't see how he can cut them enough to avoid the need to walk more. He is going to have to walk more. The greatest bad ball hitters of all time--e.g. Clemente--had a lot better ratios than JF.

  4. #33
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Defense is an important issue as well. He's a good prospect at 3B, but if he has to move to the OF, well, Balentien's had better numbers at Francisco's age/level (granted PCL) and nobody's talking about him except as a 4th outfielder.
    Couple of things you didn't mention. After Balantien completed AAA, he had two trials with the Mariners, hitting .202 in 2008 (260 PAs) and hitting .213 in 170 PAs in 2009.

    Another omission is that Balentein's AA stint in 2006 resulted in a .230 BA in a full season with a .772 OPS. Francisco at AA hit .281 with an .818 OPS and was immediately promoted to AAA and the Reds. Where Francisco succeeded.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-14-2009 at 11:32 PM.

  5. #34
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Mike Leake. I think he has a good chance of being on the Reds roster inside of 2 years, as long as injuries don't derail his career. Not sure if it will be as a reliever or a starter, though.

  6. #35
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Mike Leake. I think he has a good chance of being on the Reds roster inside of 2 years, as long as injuries don't derail his career. Not sure if it will be as a reliever or a starter, though.
    I definitely see Leake on the roster no later than 2011.

  7. #36
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    Mike Leake. I think he has a good chance of being on the Reds roster inside of 2 years, as long as injuries don't derail his career. Not sure if it will be as a reliever or a starter, though.
    Why would he be a reliever when he has four pitches that grade out as average or better?

  8. #37
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Couple of things you didn't mention. After Balantien completed AAA, he had two trials with the Mariners, hitting .202 in 2008 (260 PAs) and hitting .213 in 170 PAs in 2009.

    Another omission is that Balentein's AA stint in 2006 resulted in a .230 BA in a full season with a .772 OPS. Francisco at AA hit .281 with an .818 OPS and was immediately promoted to AAA and the Reds. Where Francisco succeeded.
    Francisco also had BABIP's of .444 and .615 at those levels. Rates that are simply astronomical and can't be repeated over anything resembling a stretch of a season.

  9. #38
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    If you're going Francisco then why not Frazier, who had better numbers in Carolina and plays better defense at multiple positions?

    It can't be age, since we're talking about all of 8 months difference. Were Francisco's AAA and MLB stints so impressive? They were clearly luck, given he had unsustainable BABiP's of .412 and .615 at those levels. And as far as hitting both righties and lefties, I see a .718 career OPS vs. LHP.

    I don't really understand the Francisco love. He's a valuable player if he can stick at 3B, but if he can't improve defensively and is forced to the OF, I don't see a guy who could be a regular MLB player. Not if he doesn't walk more.

    Francisco has more offensive potiential than Frazier. To me that defines a prospect. As far as his .718 OPS vs LH Alonso's is .070 LOWER...throw out his year in Dayton it's like .730ish. Which isnt bad for a 22 year old who doesn't walk that often who has played in 5 levels... sucessfully, in 3 years... As far as walking more... Tejada a Multi MVP winner... walked 19 times all year. So it can be done. He doesn't walk because he makes solid contact and puts the ball in play. If he was a leadoff guy that would be a problem. But he isn't, he is a RBI guy. I want those guys in my lineup to swing often and swing hard.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    Francisco has more offensive potiential than Frazier. To me that defines a prospect. As far as his .718 OPS vs LH Alonso's is .070 LOWER...throw out his year in Dayton it's like .730ish. Which isnt bad for a 22 year old who doesn't walk that often who has played in 5 levels... sucessfully, in 3 years... As far as walking more... Tejada a Multi MVP winner... walked 19 times all year. So it can be done. He doesn't walk because he makes solid contact and puts the ball in play. If he was a leadoff guy that would be a problem. But he isn't, he is a RBI guy. I want those guys in my lineup to swing often and swing hard.
    Tejada has 1 MVP. In that season he walked 38 times and struck out 84 times in 715 plate appearances. That is a strikeout rate of 11.7%. Juan Francisco has never come close to anything like that. If he could make contact at such a rate, there would be absolutely no problem with his offensive game because he would project to be a high average guy. Since he projects to strike out about 50-75% more than that, it is a problem. Tejada this year had a strikeout rate of 7.1%. Francisco has never been within 10% of that rate in his life. You are reaching a mile to try and make a comparison here and its just not going to hold any water.

    As for him being an RBI guy.... don't you want the guys behind him to also have RBI's? They won't get many if Francisco isn't getting to first base, which swinging early and often is going to make happen unless he turns into Miguel Tejada in terms of strikeouts, which he has shown absolutely nothing close to in his entire career.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 10-15-2009 at 10:07 AM.

  11. #40
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    I'd say K:BB ratio is generally a safe way to evaluate hitting prospects. An easy-to-see evaluation tool, in-the-box all the way. Francisco's outside the box, and a lot of people do not feel comfortable going there. Fortunately for the kid's development, the Reds have not felt restricted by that thinking.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    I'd say K:BB ratio is generally a safe way to evaluate hitting prospects. An easy-to-see evaluation tool, in-the-box all the way. Francisco's outside the box, and a lot of people do not feel comfortable going there. Fortunately for the kid's development, the Reds have not felt restricted by that thinking.
    Well, its called development for a reason. Francisco has improved his K/BB every year. The problem is he started out so terribly that even after improving it for 3 years in a row, its still in the 'terrible' range. Francisco could be a historical outlier who makes the improvements he needs to after being so bad in the minors as far as those things go, and to be sure, he has shown some signs that suggest its possible. The problem is, they have just been flashes in very small samples.

  13. #42
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Yonder Alonso has to rated #1 based on the fact he appears to me to be a Raffy Palmerio type hitter , the power is better than the pre PEDS Raffy . His power is to all fields another plus .

    I may be to high on Juan Francisco though his walk ratio was low in his Sept. abs,he seemed to be more selective than I expected with the exception of his 4 strikeout 1st major league start. His potential to me is as a run producer; the type that will hit with runners on. His arm is strong enough that I can see him developing into at no worse an average left fielder .

    The top 2 pitchers to me are Mike Leake based on his performance in college and the fact he has 4 at least average big league pitches , the other is Travis Wood. I watched Wood in Indy and in that game he looked like a bulldog type , his fastball is good enough to keep the hitter honest at the plate and that night his curve and off speed stuff was expecially good.

    Todd Frazier based on what little I've actually seen of him is a very good utility player . His glove is questionable but he's a solid looking hitting prospect who has a very good idea at the plate.

    Those to me are the 5 in my book Yorman Rodriguez at 17 is an interesting prospect but is he a Cesar Cedeno who is major league ready by age 19 or an extremely advanced 17 year old who will not get a lot better dispite what appears great potential?

  14. #43
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Well, its called development for a reason. Francisco has improved his K/BB every year. The problem is he started out so terribly that even after improving it for 3 years in a row, its still in the 'terrible' range. Francisco could be a historical outlier who makes the improvements he needs to after being so bad in the minors as far as those things go, and to be sure, he has shown some signs that suggest its possible. The problem is, they have just been flashes in very small samples.
    I understand that. I am not arguing that Francisco could not put more time in AAA to good use. All I'm saying is that the pro-Alonso camp in this rating is inside-the-box, while the Francisco camp is not. Just as, for years there have been some Francisco supporters on this board -- and I am a relative latecomer among them -- who have been opposed all along by the same arguments that are being levied against Francisco now. Despite the fact that his supporters have been validated more and more as time has gone on, the opposition has changed little, if at all.
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  15. #44
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Some of us have been in and out of boxes. In fact we don't like boxes (or fences) at all. I've been in the Alonso and Francisco camps all along, though I will say, too, that Doug is right on Francisco, IMO--he must learn to walk more. I hope the org. is telling him this straightforwardly: kid, you've got a great future in the major leagues if you can continue to produce the power you've shown plus learning to walk more (as well as continuing to cut the K's, though there's less room to do this than there is to walk more).

  16. #45
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Francisco also had BABIP's of .444 and .615 at those levels. Rates that are simply astronomical and can't be repeated over anything resembling a stretch of a season.
    JF does hit the ball extremely hard, which could result in higher than normal BABIP numbers. Not sure how high. He also uses the whole field well, as apparently does Alonso.


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